欧盟2019年欧盟经济预测2019244页

EconomicandFinancialAffairsWinter2019(Interim)ISSN2443-8014(online)EuropeanEconomicForecastINSTITUTIONALPAPER096|FEBRUARY2019EUROPEANECONOMYEuropeanEconomyInstitutionalPapersareimportantreportsanalysingtheeconomicsituationandeconomicdevelopmentspreparedbytheEuropeanCommission'sDirectorate-GeneralforEconomicandFinancialAffairs,whichservetounderpineconomicpolicy-makingbytheEuropeanCommission,theCounciloftheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanParliament.ViewsexpressedinunofficialdocumentsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheEuropeanCommission.LEGALNOTICENeithertheEuropeanCommissionnoranypersonactingonbehalfoftheEuropeanCommissionisresponsiblefortheusethatmightbemadeoftheinformationcontainedinthispublication.ThispaperexistsinEnglishonlyandcanbedownloadedfrom:PublicationsOfficeoftheEuropeanUnion,2019PDFISBN978-92-79-98843-1ISSN2443-8014doi:10.2765/689892KC-BC-19-003-EN-N©EuropeanUnion,2019Reuseisauthorisedprovidedthesourceisacknowledged.ThereusepolicyofEuropeanCommissiondocumentsisregulatedbyDecision2011/833/EU(OJL330,14.12.2011,p.39).ForanyuseorreproductionofmaterialthatisnotundertheEUcopyright,permissionmustbesoughtdirectlyfromthecopyrightholders.EuropeanCommissionDirectorate-GeneralforEconomicandFinancialAffairsEuropeanEconomicForecastWinter2019(Interim)EUROPEANECONOMYInstitutionalPaper096CONTENTSiiiGrowthmoderatesamidhighuncertainty11.EuroareaandEUoutlook21.1.Globalgrowthslowsamidhighuncertainty21.2.Financialmarketscontinuetoadjustamidhighvolatility31.3.TheExpansionLosessteam51.4.Labourmarketconditionsremainabrightspotintheeconomicexpansion91.5.Energypricesdriveinflationlower101.6.Substantialuncertaintyremains112.ProspectsbyMemberStates122.1.Belgium122.2.Bulgaria122.3.Czechia132.4.Denmark132.5.Germany142.6.Estonia152.7.Ireland152.8.Greece162.9.Spain162.10.France172.11.Croatia182.12.Italy182.13.Cyprus192.14.Latvia202.15.Lithuania202.16.Luxembourg212.17.Hungary222.18.Malta222.19.TheNetherlands232.20.Austria232.21.Poland242.22.Portugal242.23.Romania252.24.Slovenia262.25.Slovakia262.26.Finland272.27.Sweden272.28.TheUnitedKingdom28StatisticalAnnex29LISTOFTABLES1.Overview-theWinter2019(interim)forecast11.1.Internationalenvironment2LISTOFGRAPHS1.1.GrowthofglobalGDPandPMIs21.2.Oilpriceassumptions3iv1.3.Benchmark10-yeargovernmentbondyields,selectedMemberStatesandtheUS41.4.Stockmarketperformance41.5.RealGDPgrowth,euroarea(contributionbyMemberStates)51.6.RealGDPanditscomponents,euroarea61.7.Exportmarketsdemand(Dec-17=100,3-monthmovingaverage)61.8.EconomicSentimentIndicatorandPMICompositeOutput,euroarea71.9.RealGDPgrowth,euroareaandMemberStates,2017-2018versus2019-202091.10.HICP,euroarea101.11.Inflationexpectationsderivedfromimpliedforwardinflation-linkedswaprates,euroarea10GROWTHMODERATESAMIDHIGHUNCERTAINTYWinter2019(Interim)forecast1EconomicactivityintheEUandtheeuroareamoderatedlastyearonthebackofacombinationofinternalandexternalfactors.Whileamoderationofgrowthwasalreadyinthecards,theslowdowninthesecondhalfof2018turnedouttobemorepronouncedthanexpected.Growthintheeuroareaslippedto0.2%inthelasttwoquartersof2018andthelatesthighfrequencydatasuggestthatthisweakmomentumcontinuedinJanuary2019.Overthenexttwoyears,theeconomyisexpectedtocontinuegrowingbutataslowerpace.OutsidetheEU,activityisalsoslowingdownamidhighuncertainties,andtheoutlookvariesfordifferentpartsoftheworld.Theslowdownoverthecourseof2018reflectsfadingsupportfromtheexternalenvironment,asincreaseduncertaintyregardingtradepolicies,notablybetweentheUSandChina,andadecliningtrendinglobalmanufacturingoutputtranslatedintoweakerglobaltradegrowth.Theeuroareaappearstobeparticularlyimpactedgiventhegeographicalorientationofitsexternaltradeanditsproductspecialisation.Specificdomesticfactorsalsocontributedtothelossofgrowthmomentuminthesecondhalfoftheyear.Theseincludethedisruptionofcarproductioninthethirdquarter,whichhassinceonlypartiallyrebounded,aswellassocialtensionsandfiscalpolicyuncertaintyinsomeMemberStates.Despitethesedevelopments,thefundamentalsoftheEuropeaneconomyremainsound.Improvinglabourmarketconditions,lowfinancingcostsandaslightlyexpansionaryfiscalpolicystancethisyearshouldallowtheexpansiontocontinue,butatamoremoderatepace.Overall,theGDPgrowthforecastfortheeuroareain2019hasbeenreviseddownby0.6pps.sincetheautumnforecastto1.3%.Thisrevisionmirrorsaweakercarry-overfromthelastquartersof2018andaslightlyweakermomentumin2019.Nextyear,economicgrowthisexpectedtosettleat1.6%,i.e.0.1pps.lowercomparedtotheautumnforecast.Euroareaheadlineinflationdeclinedattheendof2018onthebackofasharpdropinenergyprices.Theresultingbaseeffectsforthisyearandlowerassumptionsaboutoilpricesentailadownwardrevisionofeuroareaheadlineinflationto1.4%in2019.Averygradualpick-upininflationisexpectedin2020(1.5%).TheoutlookfortheEU’seconomicgrowthis,however,predicatedonrecedinguncertaintiesandagradualunwindingoftemporarydomesticfactorscurrentlyholdingbackdomesticgrowth.Risksremainsubstantialandmainlystemfrompotentialpolicy