麦格理全球旅游业2018年Q42019年Q2全球旅游业趋势预测201811925页

Pleaserefertopage23forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite:SRSAnalyser,MacquarieResearch,Nov2018OurselectivebullishmarketpicksinorangeSource:SRSAnalyser,MacquarieResearch,Nov2018Ourtraveltrendspredictionfor4Q18-2Q19oDouble-digitChinesetouristarrivalgrowthintoSouthKorea,Cambodia,Macau&UKoFasterChinesetouristarrivalsgrowthintoJapanin4Q18-2Q19thanseenin2017oSingle-digitChinesetouristarrivalgrowthintoThailand,slowingdownfromdouble-digitgrowthseeninlastseasonoContractionofChinesetouristarrivalsintoTaiwanoDouble-digitdomesticIndiapassengergrowthoHighsingle-digitdomesticChinapassengergrowth;whilethisisabovelong-termhistoricalaverage,weexpectnear-termgrowthtobeslowerthanrecentseasonSource:MacquarieResearch,Nov2018AnalystsMacquarieCapitalSecurities(Singapore)[e-mail]5NovemberrainKeypointsWearebullishonChinesetouristarrivalsinSouthKorea,Cambodia,Japan,MacauandtheUKin4Q18-2Q19.WeturnneutralonChinesetouristarrivalsinHKandThailand,andcautiousonTaiwan.India,tous,willbeamulti-year,structuralairtravelgrowthstory.Nothin’lastsforever.Andwebothknowheartscanchange.InthisfifthFollowtheseats(Fts),whichcombinesourairlinescoverageinsightsandourproprietaryairlineforwardschedules,weturnfrombullishonChinesetouristarrivalsinGreaterChina,includingTaiwan,andThailandinourJan20184thFts,toneutral/cautiousfortheupcoming4Q18-2Q19.Ontheflipside,wereturntoourbullishstance,fromnegativeearlier,onChinesetouristarrivalsinSouthKorea.MacauandtheUK,whichhadnotbeenonourtopgrowthmarketradar,arenowinthetop10andweexpectdouble-digitChinesetouristarrivalgrowth.China-JapanairroutesareseeingmoreacceleratedseatgrowththanoverthelasttwoyearsandthuswealsoturnbullishonChinesetouristarrivalsinJapan.It’shardtoholdacandleinthecoldrain.OurlastfoureditionsofFtscorrectlyidentified31outof37traveltrendsforChinatourism,withourv4hittingaperfect100%score.Havingsaidthat,weacknowledgethis5theditionbecomesourtoughestthusfarinidentifyingdeltatrends,givenahighbaseandaslowinggrowthbackdrop.DomesticChinagrowthistaperingoff,thoughstillabovelong-termaverages.Internationalairsupplygrowthisslowingtoo,mainlyasChineseairlinesundertakesupplyreform,whichwebelieveispartlyoccasionedbythehigherfuelprice:ie,lesssupply=betterticketprices.Thecurrenteconomicinsecurity,aidedbypotentialtradewars,tariffs,de-globalisationandmoreimportantly,yuandepreciation,couldlikelymakeChina’sburgeoningmiddleclass,thedriveroftheChinaoutboundstoryinthelastfouryears,lessabletobudgetfortravelinthefuture.Nevermindthedarkness,westillcanfindaway.WenotethatoutboundChinatravelwillslowintheneartermbutgrowthwillstillcontinue.Weidentifynear-termtrendsintheleft-handbox.Longerterm,aswesaidinnewrules,emergenceofnewtechnologyintheairwillenablemorecity-pairs,andcreatenewdemand.Fig18insidedepictshowThailand,nowthethird-biggestChinaoutboundmarket,grewfromhavingdirectlinksto27Chinesecitiesin2010to65citiesnow.Thiscanbereplicatedinothermarkets.Also,risingincomes,relaxationofairlineregulations,moreinfrastructurespendingandgrowinglow-costcarrierpenetrationhavebeenfuellingdomesticairtravelinIndia,thethird-largestdomesticairmarketfrom#5twoyearsago,overtakingJapanandIndonesia.India,tous,willbeamulti-year,structuralairtravelgrowthstory.Beneficiaries:Travelagencies:Ctrip.comInternational(OP),YatraOnline(OP).Duty-freeCITS(OP)isoneofGreaterChinaconsumeranalystLindaHuang’stoppick.USconsumeranalystLaurentVasilesculikesTiffanyandRalphLauren.AmongChineseairlines,ChinaEasternAirlines(OP)benefitsthemostfromSouthKoreatrafficrecovery.LasVegasSands(OP)benefitsfromourbullishstanceonarrivalsintoMacau.Topsells:CentralPattana(UP),Samsonite(UP)andAmorepacific(UP).4Q14-1Q152Q-3Q152Q-3Q182Q-3Q184Q18-1Q194Q18-1Q19051015202530354045ΔdomesticΔinternational∆Seats(mn)Taperingdomesticgrowth(backtomildlyabove-average),InternationalgrowthslowstooChina8%36%5%23%15%27%5%4%39%10%0%20%40%012SouthKoreaCambodiaJapanIndonesiaMacauUKMalaysiaSingaporeMyanmarFranceΔSeats(mn)ΔseatsgrowthYoY(RHS)Top10growth(4Q18-2Q19)MacquarieResearchFollowtheseatsv59November20182Airlines’forwardschedulemattersWemonitorairlines’forwardschedules,aswebelievethisreflectstheindustry’sviewondemandgrowth.Airlinesaddcapacityonhigh-demandroutesbasedoninformationsuchasloadfactor,whichisreadilyavailabletothem.Also,airlineshavetoplaceordersfornewfleetyearsinadvance,thusnewseatdemandmustbestimulatedbyairlines.OurlastfoureditionsofFollowtheseatswerespotonfor31outof37traveltrendsforChinatourism,withourv4hittingaperfect100%trendforecastfor4Q17-2Q18.Fig11stedition:April2016publication(link)Fig29M16forecastvsactualtouristarrivalsMacquarie’sforecastActual“WeexpectChina’soutboundtrafficintoThailand,Japan,theUS,Vietnam&Malaysiatogrowindoubledigitsin9M16Chinesetouristarrivalsinto:Thailand:+20%in9M16Japan:+30%in9M16US:+13%in9M16Vietnam:+59%in9M16Malaysia:+25%in9M16“Chinesetouristarr