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GlobalResearch11March2019U.S.BeautyRetailUBSEvidenceLabinside:What'sHappeninginBeautyRetail,4Q'18AssessingbeautyretailthroughUBSEvidenceLab&traditionaltechniquesWebelievethebeautyretailcompetitivelandscaperemainsstable.WeutilizedseveralUBSEvidenceLabdisciplines&traditionalanalysestoassessthespace.Our275itempricingsurveyshowsstabilityasULTA,Sephora,&Nordstrombeautypricesareinatightrange(thepremiumatMiswidening).Also,UBSEvidenceLabassessedstoreoverlap&demographicsof8beautyretailers/brands.Detailedslidepresentationinside.ULTAhasseensteadylevelsofcompetitionfromSephorastoresULTAfacesmodestlevelsofcompetitionfromSephora.Inparticular,28%ofULTA'sstoreshaveaSephoralocationwithina10minutedrive.Thisremainsconsistentwithpriorlevels(28%in1Q'13).Further,46%ofULTAstorescompetewithaSephoraStoreWithinaStore(upfrom36%in1Q'13).TheselocationsareinJCPenneystores,whichremainchallenged.JCPcompared-MSDthepast2quarters.WethinkULTAistakingshare.Fromtheotherperspective,SephorastoresfacemorecompetitionfromULTA.77%ofSephorastoreshaveanULTAwithina10minutedrive(53%in1Q'13).ThebeautypricingenvironmentappearstobesteadyOurpricingsurveyof275topULTAproducts(asofJan24)revealedthatbeautypricingremainsrational.OnexactSKUmatcheswithULTA,Sephora'spriceswerein-line(-0.2%cheaperinOct),JWNwas0.1%moreexpensive(0.3%premiuminAug),&Macy'swas3.2%moreexpensive(1.8%premiuminOct).Thissuggeststhattherehasbeenrationalpricingbehaviorinthespecialtybeautyanddepartmentchannel.Bothtopproducts&newitemsatULTAaregenerallynotavailableelsewhereManyofULTA'stopsellingitemsarenotsoldatcompetitors.For175top-sellingULTAitems,only48%wereavailableatM,41%atSephora,&35%atJWN.Inmass,38%wereavailableatAMZN1P,19%atWMT1P,&14%atTGT.NewproductsatULTAhaveverylittledistributionelsewhere.Of100newitemstoULTA,only1%wereavailableatSephora,2%atJWN,&3%atM.Plus,therewaslimitedavailabilitythroughthemasschannel.Exclusiveproductsrepresent9%ofULTA'sassortment.Additionalproductsareexclusivetothespecialtychannel.Takentogether,wethinkthisinsulatesthelevelofcompetitionthatULTAfaces,supportingcontinuedSSSgrowth.Figure1:ULTAtopproductsavailableatotherretailersFigure2:ULTAstoreshavemodestoverlapwithSephoraSource:UBSSource:UBSEvidenceLab5%14%19%35%38%41%48%49%51%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%SBHTGTWMT1PJWNAMZN1PSephoraMAMZN3PWMT3PSephoraoffered41%ofULTA's175top-sellingproducts0%10%20%30%40%50%1Q'131Q'141Q'151Q'161Q'171Q'18SephoraCompanyOwnedSephoraStoreWithinaStoreULTAhasfacedrelativelyconsistentcompetitionfromSephorawithina10minutedrivetimeEquitiesAmericasRetailers,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]PinarErgun,[e-mail][phone]GustavoPirasOliveira,[e-mail][phone]U.S.BeautyRetail11March201922TableofContents•KeyTakeaways–Takeaway#1–ProbsatOterlanWitfULTAIsMalaeeable–Takeaway#2–Cosmetiasstoresalesaaaeleratebil4Q–Takeaway#3–ULTAstoresfaaemobestaomnetitiolfromSenfora–Takeaway#4–ULTAfasbeelonelilestoresilwealtfierareas•MolitoriletfePriaileCltirolmelt–BeastyRetailPriaile&Atailability•MolitoriletfeStoreLalbsaane–UBSCtibelaeLabStoreOterlan•MolitoriletfeStoreLalbsaane–UBSCtibelaeLabDemoeranfias•MolitoriletfeStoreLalbsaane–UBSCtibelaeLabReeiolalCxnossre•Annelbix1:TonSellileULTAProbsatsPriaileSsrtey•Annelbix2:MetfoboloeyPaee3Paee4Paee5Paee6Paee7Paee8Paee15Paee27Paee30Paee41Paee46U.S.BeautyRetail11March20193KeyTakeawaysSeatiol1U.S.BeautyRetail11March201944Takeaway#1–ProductoverlapwithULTAismanageable•IltfeJalsary2019ebitiolofosrnriailessrteyof175ton-sellilenrobsatsatULTA,malyitemsbritileULTA'ssaleswerel'tatailableatotferretailers.TfisilbiaatesULTAiswellilsslatebfromaomnetitiol.–Forexamnle,olly48#wereatailableatMaay's,41#wereatailableatSenfora,alb35#wereatailableatLorbstrom.–Similarly,olly38#wereatailableatAmazol1P,19#wereatailableatWalmart1P,alb14#wereatailableatTareet.•Fsrtfer,ULTAisalsowellnositiolebilitskeyaateeory.Oterall,itston25makesnSKUsoterlanwitfotferretailers(aosmetiasrenreselteb51#ofULTA'stotalsalesilFY'17)fasbeareasebsilaeosrlastssrtey.–60#wereatailableatSenfora(ts.64#ilOat31,2018),48#wereatailableatMaay's(ts.56#ilOat31,2018),wfile52#wereatailableatLorbstrom(ts.44#ilOat31,2018).–Atailabilitytfroseftfemassafallelislimiteb.Olly4#wereatailableatWMT1P,wfilelolewereatailableatAMZL1P,albTGT.Source:UBSULTA175Tmn-ScllglePpmbsarsAtaglablcarOrhcpBcasrwPcraglcpsULTA25Tmn-ScllgleMai