2018农业发展大会PPT全球及中国农产品贸易发展和趋势分析英文2018448页

1JimHansen1,MaryMarchant2,FrancisTuan3andAgapiSomwaru41USDA,EconomicResearchService,[e-mail]2VirginiaTech,[e-mail][e-mail]4EconomicConsulting,[e-mail]de:UnitedStates,ChinaandEmergingMarkets2018ChinaAgriculturalOutlookConference,Beijing,China,April20-21,2018.1Acknowledgements:FundingforthisworkwasprovidedbytheNationalInstituteofFoodandAgriculture,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture(USDA-NIFA)andtheAgricultureandFoodResearchInitiative(AFRI),USDA-NIFA-AFRIGrantNumber2014-67023-21946,“ExpandingU.S.MarketAccessinChina’sEvolvingAgriculturalandTradePolicyEnvironment.”Disclaimer:Theviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthors’anddonotrepresentthoseoftheUSDAEconomicResearchServiceortheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2Outline•WorldAgricultureTrade–AGrowthStory•China’sandUnitedStatesagriculturaltrade•USExportsofbulk,Intermediatecommodities,specialtyproductsandnichemarkets,•Emergingmarketsandgrowingagriculturalimports2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.019909294969800020406081012142016AgriculturalRelatedBulkIntermediateConsumerOrientedWorldAgriculturalTradeTrillionofDollars,(2017RealDollars)Source:U.N.TradeData,WTOdefinition,April2018.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC4TheLargestAgriculturalTradingCountriesinBillionUS$2016-2017averageImports•EU28456.3•UnitedStates125.9•China109.7•Japan55.3•Canada34.7•Mexico27.1•India26.1•Russia26.0•SouthKorea24.9•HongKong24.9•Indonesia18.3•Malaysia14.9•Turkey13.6Exports•EU28456.2•UnitedStates141.1•Brazil76.3•China54.1•Canada44.3•Argentina34.6•Australia34.5•Indonesia32.9•India30.1•Mexico29.9•Thailand26.7•Malaysia23.2•NewZealand22.0Source:GlobalTradeAtlas,WTOAGGroup2012,World&Partners,April2018.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC010020030040050060070019861990199419982002200620102014201820222026ThaiRiceBSoybeansRotterdamWheatUSGulfSorghumUSGulfCornUSGulfInternationalCommodityPriceUSDA’sProjections2018-2027(US$/mtnominal)US$/metrictonSource:USDAAgriculturalBaselineProjectionsto2027,February2018,basedonNovember2017data.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC051015202530200120032005200720092011201320152017CanadaChinaMexicoJapanKorea,SouthUnitedStatesAgriculturalExports:TopFiveCountries(US$Billion)BillionUS$Source:USDAAgriculturalBaselineProjectionsto2027,February2018,basedonNovember2017data.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOilseeds&ProdsGrains&FeedsHides&SkinsFish&ShellfishCottonMeats&ProductsFruits&VegDairyProductsFarmMach&ChemOtherUnitedStatesAgricultureExportstoChinaInBillionDollars(2016-2017average)Billiondollars(annual)Source:USDA,ForeignAgriculturalService,GlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemdatabase,FATUS,April2018.13.5BillionDollarsOilseeds2.4Grains1.0Hides1.2Fish0.770.650.752018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCForestProductsConsumer-OrientedSeafoodProductsIntermediateProductsBulkChinaAgricultureExportstoUnitedStatesInBillionDollars(2016-2017average)Billiondollars(annual)Source:USDA,ForeignAgriculturalService,GlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemdatabase,FATUS,April2018.3.6BillionDollarsForestProducts2.9ConsumerOriented2.7SeafoodProducts1.3IntermediateGoods0.29Bulk2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0199092949698000204060810121416BulkTotalIntermediateTotalSeafoodProductsConsumer-OrientedForestProductsChina’sAnnualAgricultureExportstotheU.S.BillionofDollars,(2017Real)Source:USDA,ForeignAgriculturalService,GlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemdatabase,BICO,April2018.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC0204060801001201409596979899000102030405060708091011121314151617SoybeansMeats,Fish,Dairy,EggsFoods,Beverage,BakingOtheOilSeeds,FatsandOilsCotton+Yarn,FabricCerealVeg,Fruit,NutsHidesAndSkinsFertilzerChina’sAnnualAgricultureImportsfromtheWorldBillionofDollars(2017Real)Source:WorldTradeAtlasInternational,ChinaCustomsData,April2018.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC0510152025301990199319961999200220052008201120142017USExportstoChinaUSImportsfromChinaU.S.AgricultureExportstoChinaandU.S.ImportsofChina’sAgriculture(billiondollars)Billiondollars(annual)IncludesFish,ExcludesForestrySource:USDA,ForeignAgriculturalService,GlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemdatabase,BICOApril2018.2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018A