JP摩根美股农业行业2019年Q2摩根大通农业市场展望201961868页

JPMAgriculturalMarketsOutlook2Q19Supplysideconstraintsfuelagricommodityrecovery**incorporatingJuneUSDAWASDEdata18June2019TraceyAllen(44-20)[e-mail]eendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.1AgriculturalMarketsOutlook-TangiblesupplysideconstraintswillcontinuetodriveagricommoditypricesoffthelowsWeatherpremiumsreturnedtoagriculturalmarketsin2Q19,promptingavastimprovementinperformancewhichwillbesustainedin2H19.Up2%through2Q19to-date,theJ.P.MorganAgricultureIndexisnowleadingtheperformanceacrossthecommoditycomplexthisquarter.UnprecedentedUSplantingdelaysdriveconcernfornewcropsuppliesamidadverseconditionsinotherexportregions,promptingwidespreadinvestorshortcoveringandcommercialre-positioning.Weatherrisksarenotsubsiding,ElNiñoappearstobeintensifyingandgrainpricesarenotyetatlevelswhichdestroydemand.Despitethesofteroutlookforglobalgrowth,demandsideheadwindshavefadedintotheperipherysomewhat.However,UStradedisputesareunderminingthemarketshareofUSagriexports,notonlytoChinaamidtheunresolvedtradewar,butthepotentialforUStariffsonMexico–theleadingimporterofUScorn,alsoraisesconcernforadditionalretaliationanddislocationsinUStradeflows.Tangiblesupplysideconstraintsacrossgrainmarkets,andtighteningfundamentalsacrossthesoftswillcontinuetodrivetheagricommoditycomplexoffthelows.WeholdhighconvictionthattheseidiosyncraticfactorswhicharetighteningUSandworldagriculturalfundamentalsfaster-than-anticipatedwillovershadowthebearishimpactofalowgrowth/lowinflationenvironmentthrough2H19.Traderecommendations:westaylongtheagriindexandlongICE#11Sugarinanticipationofacontinuedimprovementinperformancethrough2H19.1Images:PixabayAGRICULTURALCOMMODITIESQUARTERLY2Q19Source:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch,*asofclose17June2019NearbycontractpriceYOYandYTDchange(%)Supplysideconstraintsfuelagricommodityrecovery2•TheJ.P.MorganAgricultureIndexhasoutperformedthebroadcommodityindexthrough2Q19,andappearstoberecoveringoffmultiyearlows.Therapidturnaroundinperformancemid-quarterhasbeenledbyamaterialgrainsupplyshock,whichwehavelongflaggedandbeenpositionedfor(AgriculturalMarketsOutlook:Shortcoveringrisksahead...,Allen,22March).•ThetimingofthesupplyledbreakoutandcommencementofanuptrendintheBCOMAgriculture&LivestockIndexhasoccurredataninterestingjunctureofheightenedrisksforglobalgrowth,andunprecedentedUSexportimpediments.Thedeteriorationinthemacrooutlook,coupledwithrecordsoybeanavailabilityandlargeLatamexportablecornsupplieswilllikelyweighontheextentofupsidepricerecoverythrough3Q19.BUTfurthersupplysidedisruptionswouldlikelyfuelarecoveryingrainpricestolevelsnotseensince2012/13.•TheintensificationoftheUS-Chinatradewarisnowweighingmoreseverelyontheglobalgrowthoutlookandacutelyonbusinesssentiment.WenowexpectChinatomaintainretaliatorytariffsonUSimportswellinto2020.Whilethepossibilityofatradeagreementbeforethispointholdsalowprobability,itremainsasignificantlybullishalbeitperipheralriskfactorforagrimarkets.•Lookinginto2H19,ICE#11Sugarremainsourmostbullishcall,andat15USc/lb,our4Q19forecastcallsfora23%rallyfromspot,astheworldmarkettransitionstoadeficitbalance.•Traderecommendations:westaylongtheagriindexandlongICE#11Sugarinanticipationofacontinuedimprovementinperformancethrough2H19.AGRICULTURALCOMMODITIESQUARTERLY2Q1934.6%21.0%17.9%6.5%6.2%6.1%4.4%4.3%3.6%2.0%2.0%1.3%1.1%0.9%-1.4%-2.3%-3.5%-3.5%-4.6%-7.4%-7.5%-10.3%-10.4%-11.4%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%CMELeanHogsCBOTCornCMEClassIIIMilkCBOTWheatJPMCCIAgriIndexICE#11RawSugarICENYCocoaCBOTSoymealICECocoaLondonBCOMAgriIndexCBOTSoybeansICE#5WhiteSugarMinneapolisWheatCBOTSoybeanOilEuronextMaizeMDE-BursaPalmOilCBOTKansasWheatICEArabicaCoffeeICECanolaICE#2CottonCMEFeeerCattleICERobustaCoffeeEuronextWheatCMELiveCattle2Q19YTD2019TangiblesupplysideconstraintswillcontinuetodriveagricommoditypricesoffthelowsSource:CBOT,ICE,Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchNote:AllForecastsareperiodaverages.J.P.Morganagricommoditypriceforecasts3•Lookinginto2H19,tangiblesupplysideconstraintsacrossgrainmarkets,andtighteningfundamentalsacrossthesoftswillcontinuetodriveagricommoditypricesoffthelows.WeholdhighconvictionthattheidiosyncraticfactorswhicharetighteningUSandworldagriculturalfundamentalsfaster-than-anticipatedwillovershadowthebearishimpactofalowgrowth/lowinflationenvironmentthrough2H19,andsupportasustainedrecoveryacrosstheagriculturalcomplex.•Theimpactoffoodpriceinflationshouldnotbeunderestimatedthrough2H19–offverybenignlevels.Weatherrisksarenotsubsiding,andgrainpricesarenotyetatlevelswhichdestroydemand.•USplantedacreageexpectationshavereducedforcorn(84.5mac),wheat(44.8mac),andcotton(13.6mac)relativetoourMarchbalances,whilesoybeanplantingwilllikelyriseto85millionac,duetoweatherrelateddelayselsewhere.•USacreagewillnotbeaccuratelyknownuntilAugust-September,andgiventhelateplantinganddelaysinprogress,productionforecastsareverysubjectiveatthispoint.•Traderecommendations:staylongtheagriculturalcomplexviaanindex,staylongICE#11SugarOctober‘1913.5–15USc/lbcallspread