瑞信美股肥料行业美国农业科学Ag在宏观上稳定但空间仍然拥挤20192447页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.4February2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchFertilizersAgriculturalSciencesSectorQUARTERLYResea[e-mail]@[e-mail]@credit-suisse.comFahdNiaz,[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail],butStillaCrowdedSpace■'19OutlookHealthyonProbableTradeResolution,FMCTopAgPick:AftermultipleyearsofourL-shapedrecoverycallontheagmacro,we'remodestlymoreconstructivein'19dueto:(i)healthycoarsegrain/oilseeddemand,(ii)specialtycropgrowth,(iii)upsideoptionalityfromapotentialUS/Chinatraderesolution,and(iv)afavorableelectioncyclebackdrop(India,Argentina,etc.).Inourview,cornandsoypriceswilllikelypushtowardstheupperendofCSeLTrangesof$3.70-$4.20and$8.50-$10.00,respectively.Giventhehighdegreeofvolatilitylikelytopersistinsoftcommoditymarkets,werecommendbeingselectiveinstockselection,stressingFMC/Corteva(DWDP)arethebestwaystoplaytheagmacro.■US/ChinaTradeOptionalityDrivesCautiousOptimism:It'sdifficulttopredicttheoutcomeofUS/Chinatradenegotiations,butwebelievetherisk(fromhere)istotheupside.TherehavebeenpositivesignssuchasChinagrantingnewtraitapprovals,buttensionsbetweenthetwonationsclearlyremainelevatedinlightofongoinglegalactions.Webelievethereareclearincentivesforbothpartiestoreachadeal.TheUSiswellpositionedtohelpChinareachitsE10goal,whilerestoring/growingChinesegraindemandwouldbeaboonforakeycomponentoftheTrumpsupportbase.■PlentyofSupplyAvailabilityinGlobalFerts,PotashIsBestBalanced:Withinferts,weretainourviewall3macrofertilizerswillremainsupply-driven,w/potashpreservingthebest1H19S/Dbalance.ThenitrogenS/Dremainsatrisk(vs.expectations)given:(i)amplenewsupply(FSU,ME&Africa),and(ii)moderating4thquartileinputcosts.WeviewgasavailabilityimprovementsinEE,T&TandCentralAsiaand/oranyshiftinrhetoriconIraniansanctionsaskeysupplyrisks.CFandNTRarearguablyreflectingsomeofthisrisk,butwestillviewupsideaslimited(fornow).PhosphatepricescontinuetodeclineintheAmericas/Asia,whichinvestorsareshruggingoff,citinglowerinputs.Weanticipateamplenewsupply(MENA,etc.)tomeetstable'19demand,posingslightdownsiderisktobullishexpectationsdespitelowerraws.ExpectonlyslightdeclinesinChineseexportsasmoreefficientproducersramptooffsetenvironmentalclosures.■CPCOutlookIsProducerDependent–Asian/LatamVolumeGrowth:WebelieveglobalCPCmarketswillonlymuster1-2%growthin'19,whichisunderscoredbyamostly-healthyAsia,solidLatamandstableUS.Europeangrowthwilllikelybefairlymuted,givenweakcropeconomicsandachallenginglocalregulatoryenvironment(glyphosate,chlorpyrifos,neonicotinoids,etc.)–newproductlaunches/EEexposureareintegraltoEurogrowth.Onthecostfront,AIinflationappearstobeeasing,butinputheadwindswilllikelystillbeprevalentin1H19,athemeacrossthesector.■NewEstimates:MOS('19EPS$2.25TP$30),NTR('19EPS$3.60,TP$55),CF('19EPS$2.71,newTP$46),FMC('19EPS$5.80,TP$114).4February2019AgriculturalSciencesSector2TableofcontentsGlobalAgMarketUpdates4GlobalMarketSummary..........................................................................................4LatamMarketUpdate...............................................................................................5AgChemicalOutlook...............................................................................................5CentralAsiaUpdate.................................................................................................6OtherGlobalDataPoints.........................................................................................6GlobalNitrogenOverview8GlobalNitrogenPriceOutlook................................................................................11KeyNitrogenInputPrices......................................................................................13NitrogenPricePerformance...................................................................................13GlobalPotashOverview15GlobalPotashPriceOutlook..................................................................................16GlobalPotashMarketOutlook...............................................................................17PotashPricePerformance.....................................................................................18GlobalPhosphatesOverview19GlobalPhosphatesPriceOutlook.......................................