2018全球智能手机市场的主要趋势

130thMarch2018全球智能手机市场的主要趋势长期博弈：寻求利润3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin全球厂商面临的昀大问题Source:Cannaccordestimates/publishedarticles22017(FullYear)全球智能机份额(%)14872010663VolumeshareofSmartphonesalesProfitshareofSmartphonesalesotherother由发达市场、高端、高利润销售所驱动份额在增长，由发展中市场、低价格段、低利润销售所推动由多个价格段推动,但在高端机领域是苹果唯一的挑战者3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin3完全不同的品牌策略发达市场发展中市场3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin4发展中市场3个关键趋势3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin4亿6200万消费者还没有智能机绝大多数的消费者将购买低价手机留住消费者比赢得他们更容易;关键是要通过出色的用户体验，建立品牌力和健全的忠诚战略本土和中国品牌在印度增长成为主导地位,但由于消费者价格敏感性,利润率低，拓展高端份额现在开始成为重点5印度智能手机在手机用户中的渗透率40%201547%201655%201771322AppleSamsungC-BrandsOthers2017201620153.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin对于拥有大量低端用户的品牌，未来利润率增长的关键将是忠诚用户升级手机。这对品牌资产和长期满意度有很高的要求。6用户数（M）201520162017小米用户有多少为品牌买单%384547201520162017RedMi2RedMiNote4RedMiNote3小米用户的意向忠诚度%461238Q117Q217Q317Q417品牌需要长期投资3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin为了推动增长,苹果公司已经开始瞄准关键的发展中市场中端部分。这将创建更大的存量用户数,从而在未来发展出更多的苹果高端用户(同时这也要求客户满意度和品牌力一直保持高位)7778121518323129494745Q416Q217Q417PremiumHighMidLow3101652215TotalLowMidHighDec-16Dec-17苹果用户在不同价格段的分布%7233171460285323LowMidHighStableDowngradersUpgraders用户在不同价格段的迁移%各个价格段中苹果用户的比例%3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin8发达市场:3核心趋势3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin222522232124202122232524242225242223242625252425262422USAAUEU5FRDRGBITSPCH201520162017智能手机的渗透率几近饱和,手机的生命周期在增加,迫使制造商寻找替代的收入来源来推动增长。9智能机持有周期(months)在所有国家中,越来越多的消费者因为“现有手机足够好”,而长期使用。美国:增加的生命周期,导致每年换机用户减少90万。3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin高端在增长但中国品牌目前对此影响仍不大。苹果和三星在17/18年以提升忠诚度和新类别增长为主。10价格段趋势%33282940373348443832302827242247444056524625211826262722232527282930262527272924262915131213111111910181513141514877877273942212629202426232730283539182225121518PremiumHighMidLow6062644849514446473941446363624746483740423735323737373938384544442629304244413735361351251240122474111333414118161410151281286107523149OtherC-BrandsSamsungApple高端用户品牌渗透率%3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin华为在高端有一些成绩，但打造品牌资产却并不容易。11321109102121203740423734283229304033303735369131871721514212810121929182222471223338322433231730251723149AppleSamsungHuaweiOtherC-BrandsOtherLowMidHighPremium573415563821614021201720162015品牌驱动%各价格段存量用户品牌分布%623355233162231价格驱动%3.16cm4.75cm6.34cm7.93cm9.52cm11.11cm12.70cm14.29cm15.87cm17.00cm1.00cm3.70cm6.40cm9.10cm11.80cm14.50cm17.20cm9.90cm22.60cm25.30cm27.99cm30.69cm32.85cm30.16cm27.46cm24.76cm22.07cm19.37cm16.67cm13.98cm11.28cm8.59cm5.89cm3.19cmContentBottomContentTopHeadingBaselineLeftMarginRightMargin对于中国品牌来说，要打入高端，品牌力是高端用户购买的顶级驱动因素。同时具有“先进功能也具有强烈的影响力。12不同价格段用户关注的功能(3m/e)5910