瑞银全球零售行业全球奢侈品数码产品是该行业的下一个增长点吗201932761页

GlobalResearch27March2019UBSEvidenceLabinside:GlobalLuxuryIsdigitalthenextlegofgrowthforthesector?Digitalluxurytogrow14%CAGRto2025,butwithwinnersandlosersInthisdeep-dive,weassesshowtheluxurysectorisadaptingtothedigitaleconomy.Webelievedigitalisthenextlegofgrowth:UBSEvidenceLabdatashows44%ofChinesemillennialsalreadyintendtobuymoreonline,supportingourforecastforonlinepenetrationtorisefrom9%todayto20%by2025(14%CAGR).Thischanneliskeybothforcapturingnewconsumersandunlockinghighermarginpotential.However,brandpositioningismixed:weseeLVMH(Buy),Moncler(Buy)andKering(Neutral)bestplacedtocapitaliseondigital(withKeringplanningadigitalinvestordayforJun-2019).Swatch,FerragmoandTod's(allSell)appeartobethelaggardssofar.AdoptionatatippingpointasbrandsnowcatchingupwithdemandUBSEvidenceLabdatarevealsthatconsumersdowantmoreluxuryonlineforconvenienceandbroadsection.Thisisespeciallytrueofmillennials:46%ofChinesemillennialscitethebrandwebsiteasthemostinfluencingintheirpurchasedecision,andtheyplantoincreasespendonbrand.comthemost(44%).Whilesofarmulti-brande-tailershavecaptured39%oftheonlinemarket,wethinkbrandsarenowatatippingpointintheirdigitalstrategyroll-outs;weexpectbrand.comtobethepreferredchannelinthefuture.Thatsaid,withhugepotentialinlower-tieredcitiesinChina,LuxuryPavillion(backedbyAlibaba)andFarfetch(backedbyJD.com)arestillattractivegiventheyappearlikelytotaketheleadoverYNAP(despiteitsJVwithAlibaba).NewanalysisofuniteconomicssuggestslittleriskofmargindisruptionInvestorsoftenworrythatdigitaldisruptioncanweighonprofitability.WecarryoutadetailedanalysisonYNAP(European,wholesale),Farfetch(US,retail)andSecoo(Chinese,mixed),andfindthatthisisunlikelyinLuxury.Forbrands,weseeonlineconcessionsand'brand.com'ashighlyattractive,withthelatterofferingpotentialmarginsofc45%,higherthanphysicalretail.Inonlinewholesale,incrementalmarginsstilllookhighbutuniteconomicswillbelowergivensmallervaluecapture.LittleispricedinforupsideonlineThesectoristradingon47%PEpremiumtothemarket,pricingin10%growthinlinewithLTaverage.Withcyclicalviewsmixed,wedonotbelievethereismuchpricedinforstructuralaccelerationandmarginupsideasaresultofincreasingdigitaladoption.Figure:Weexpectonlineluxurytogrowto€~70bnby2025Source:BainAltagamma,UBSe.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0102030405060702012201320142015201620172018e2025e€bnOnlinesales€bn%onlinepenetration%onlinepenetrationextouristsEquitiesGlobalRetailers,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]AlexandraSteiger(Kasper)[e-mail][phone]AngelaXu,[e-mail][phone]UBSEvidenceLabinside:GlobalLuxury27March20192TableofContentsQ1.Whathaveluxurybrandsdonesofarondigital?...................................6A.Digitaldistribution–themovetowardsmonobrandretail...............7B.Digitalcommunication–thefightforconsumermindshare.............9C.DataAnalytics–allaboutomnichannel.........................................13Q2.Doesdigitalbringincrementalsales?Analysisfromconsumerdemandtobrandsupply.........................................................................................17Consumerdemandforluxuryonline–millennialswantmoreconvenienceandselection..........................................................................................17Luxurybrandssupplytheonlinegrowthwithowne-commerce:customergrowthandlifetimevalueincrease.........................................................22Marketsize–weforecast14%CAGRoutto2025................................28Q3.Istheluxuryonlinebusinessprofitable?..............................................30Luxuryonlinemulti-brandplatforms–acasestudyonYNAP,FarfetchandSecoo.....................................................................................................30Luxurybrands–thechoicebetweenDOS,brand.com,e-concessionandonlinewholesale....................................................................................33Q4.Wherearethebiggestopportunitiesforluxuryonlineexpansion?.......39Bycategory:Accessoriesandbeautytowin,hardluxurydominatedbysecondhandwatche-tailers...................................................................39Byregion:opportunitiesintheUSandespeciallyChina..........................40Appendix:UBSEvidenceLabmethodology................................................53UBSEvidenceLabinside:GlobalLuxury27March20193OURTHESISINPICTURESFigure1:Chinesemillennialsplan