汇丰银行全球宏观策略混乱的经济数字时代的10个关键问题2019235页

Disclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit……oftherapidtechnologicalchangesaffectingourlives……andwhatitmeansforcentralbanksandgovernmentsECONOMICSGLOBALFebruary2019By:JamesPomeroy1ECONOMICS●GLOBALFebruary2019ThedisruptedeconomyTechnologyandtheinternetarechangingourlivesinmanyways.OnlineshoppingisdisplacingtheHighStreet.Thegigeconomyisdisruptingemploymentpatternsandwages.Gamingandstreamingarealteringleisurehabits.Howdoesallthisaffecttheeconomy?Whathappenstoinflation?Thelabourmarket?Arewestillmeasuringoutputcorrectly?Andwhatdopolicymakersandpoliticiansneedtodo?Awholeraftoftechnologieshasemergedinthepastdecadeandtheirinfluenceonourlivesisgrowingbytheday.Nonehashadagreaterimpactthanthesmartphone,which,bycombiningmobilitywiththeinternet,hasputunprecedentedcomputingpowerinourhands.Alongsidethesmartphone,companiessuchasInstagram,Spotify,Uber,AmazonandNetflixhaveemerged,transformingthewaywework,consume,communicateandtravel.Importantly,thetrendsoutlinedabovearebeingpushedbytech-savvy,youngpopulationsinbothdevelopedandemergingmarkets(see:Theriseofthedigitalnatives,12September2016).Thechangeswillonlyintensifyasthisdemographicgroupbecomesaneverbiggershareofglobalconsumption.Weareprobablyjustatthestartofamulti-decadewaveofdisruption,particularlywithnewtechnologiessuchasvirtualreality,autonomouscars,3Dprintingandartificialintelligenceabouttousherintheso-called‘FourthIndustrialRevolution’.Inthisreportwerevisitsomeofthequestionsthatwehavetackledinthelastfewyears,andweposesomenewones.Infuture,weplantodelvefurtherintothetopicswhichinterestreadersthemost.Weask:1.Howistechnologyimpactinginflation?2.Willarobottakeyourjob?3.What’stechnology’simpactonwages?4.Whyiscashindecline?5.Isblockchainabigdeal?6.Willtechnologyhelpemergingmarketsmore?7.Cancitiesworkbetter?8.Howdoestechchangetrade?Theseinturnleadtotwofurtherquestions:9.Isdigitalconsumptionhardertocapture?10.Whyistechnologynotraisingproductivity?Wealsoprovidemoreinformationonsomeofthetechnologiesthataresettodisruptourlivesfurtherintheyearsaheadonpage28.Theanswerstothesequestionshaveimplicationsforeconomists,investors,centralbanksandgovernments.ExecutiveSummaryECONOMICS●GLOBALFebruary20192Forcentralbanks:ifthecumulativeimpactofallthechangesisdisinflationary,becauseofthesupply-sidedynamics,thenisinflationtargetingasvalidasitoncewas?AswewroteinGettingthebalanceright,27September2017,centralbanksmayhavetostartconsideringalternativetargetsorlookingatabroadersetofdata,asadvocatedbyClaudioBorioattheBIS1.Monetarypolicycouldbere-gearedtofocusonpartsoftheeconomyitcanhaveaclearerinfluenceover,suchashousepricesandcreditgrowth.Wecouldseefurtherrelaxationofinflationtargetsinthecomingyears.Forgovernments,ifthesedevelopmentsdisruptthelabourmarketandimpactwagesandemployment,isthereaneedtorevisittaxationanddistributionpolicies?AswewroteinTheinequalitychallenge,18December2017,governmentpolicymayhavetochangetofocusonwhowinsandlosesfrompolicydecisions.Withincomeinequalityrising,dopoliciessuchasuniversalbasicincome,robottaxesandjobguaranteesneedtoplayeranevenbiggerroleinthepolicydiscussion?Themeritsanddrawbacksofthesepolicieswilllikelyneedtobeconsideredinthecomingyears.Inreality,gettingtherightskillsforthepopulationisakeychallenge.Governmentswillneedtothinkaboutthecontinuedup-skillingofthepopulation,withskillslikelytofocusontheSTEM(Science,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics)spaceandcontinuedlearningtodeveloptheskillsetsthatwillbeneededmoreinfuture:analytical,criticalthinkingandreasoningskills2,aswellashavingapopulationequippedwiththerighttechnicalskillstomakethemostofever-evolvingtechnologies.Andwhatabouthowwemeasurethings?AswewroteinTheworldin2030,25September2018,shouldpolicymakerskeepfocusingonGDPasameasureofsuccesswhenimprovementsinsocialwellbeingcouldbemoreimportant?DavidPilling,theFinancialTimesjournalist,suggestsinhisbook,theGrowthDelusion,thatGDPisgettingthingswrong.Hethinkstechnologycouldbe“stealing”GDPasthestreamlinedeffectsofinnovationremoveoutputthatwouldpreviouslyhavebeencaptured.AccesstobasicgoodsandservicesandmeasuresofhappinessandwellbeingcouldcarrymoreweightthanheadlineGDPgrowth.Forexample,NigeriamayhaveseenadeclineinrealGDPpercapitaoverthecourseofthepastfewyearsbuthasseenasteadyimprovementinsocialprogressduetoimprovedaccesstoICTandfewerdeathsfromdisease.Whichoftheseismoreimportant?Theaimsofpolicymayneedtobereconsidered,andGDPmaynotbeheldupasmuchasacatch-allmeasureofprogress.Sotheeconomicandpoliticalimplicationsofallthischangearevast,andtechnology’simpactontheeconomyishardtoignore.KeypiecesofHSBCresearchonthetopicsdiscussed:Theriseofthedigitalnatives,12September2016Aworldwithoutcash,17May2017Upwardlymobile,9October2017Thefutureofcities,19September2018TheWorldin2030,25September2018Theinequalitychallenge,18December2017Thewage