JP摩根美股医疗科技行业美国医疗科技与分发2018年Q4结果2019375页

HealthcareTechnology&DistributionPost4QResults,UpdatedThoughtsAcrossOurCoverageUniverseHealthcareTechnology&DistributionLisaC.GillAC(212)[e-mail]eendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.MichaelR.Minchak,CFAAC(212)[e-mail]renceCallDetailsThursday,March21@10:00amETDial-inInfo:PleasecontactusoryourJ.P.MorgansalescontactfordetailsReplaythrough3/28NorthAmericaEquityResearchMarch2019AnneE.SamuelAC(212)[e-mail]2YTD2019StockPricePerformanceTheS&P500isup+12.7%YTDin2019,andtheS&P500HealthCareSectorIndexisup+6.4%YTD.However,ourcoveredcompaniesareup+0.2%,onaverage,YTDin2019.PharmaceuticalDistributorsareup+8.8%YTDin2019,onaverage,withbothCAHandMCKoutperformingABC(CAHisup+10.7%andMCKisup+9.2%whileABCisup+6.5%).DrugRetailersaredown-8.1%onaverageYTDin2019.CVSisdown-14.3%YTDin2019,underperformingWBA(down-8.1%YTD)andRAD(down-1.8%YTD).ClinicalLabsareup+14.2%YTDin2019andtheonlysectorwithinourcoverageuniversethatisoutperformingtheS&P500,withLH(up+22.0%YTDandthethirdbestperformingstockinourcoverageuniverse)outperformingDGX(up+6.4%YTD).DentalDistributorsareup+5.2%onaverageYTDin2019,althoughHSICisdown-2.3%YTD,whilePDCOisup+12.8%.HealthcareITisup+6.2%YTDonaveragein2019withMDRXup+7.7%,EVHdown-34.3%(thesecondworstperformingstockinourcoverageuniverse),HQYup+33.5%(thebestperformingstockinourcoverageuniverse),NXGNup+14.3%,andCERNup+9.8%Amongsmall/midcapstocksnotincludedwithinthefivesectorsdiscussedabove,TDOC(aTelehealthprovider)isup+25.1%YTDin2019andisthesecondbestperformingstockinourcoverageuniversedespitetheweaknesspost4Qearnings,whileDPLO(aSpecialtyPharmacy)isdown-56.5%YTDin2019andistheworstperformingstockinourcoverageuniverse.OMI(aMedicalSupplyDistributor)isdown-27.8%YTDin2019andisthethirdworstperformingstockinourcoverageuniverse.Finally,PINC(aGPOandTechnologyServicesprovider)isdown-9.3%YTD.Source:Bloomberg.Pricingasof3/20/2019.3YTD2019StockPricePerformanceSource:Bloomberg.Note:Pricesasof3/19/2019.StockPerformanceYTDin2019byCompanyDPLO,-56.5%EVH,-34.3%OMI,-27.8%CVS,-14.3%PINC,-9.3%WBA,-8.1%HSIC,-2.3%RAD,-1.8%DGX,6.4%ABC,6.5%MDRX,7.7%MCK,9.2%CERN,9.8%CAH,10.7%PDCO,12.8%NXGN,14.3%LH,22.0%TDOC,25.1%HQY,33.5%4YTD2019StockPricePerformanceSource:BloombergNote:Pricesasof3/30/2019.StockPerformanceYTDin2019bySector-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%12/31/181/7/191/14/191/21/191/28/192/4/192/11/192/18/192/25/193/4/193/11/193/18/19DrugDistributorDrugRetailLabsDentalDistS&P500HealthcareITSectorReturnLabs14.2%S&P50012.7%DrugDistributor8.8%HealthcareIT6.2%DentalDist5.2%DrugRetail-8.1%5RevisitingKeyThemesfor2019Source:J.P.Morgan.Value-BasedCare•Ongoinginterestinvalue-basedmodelsthattiereimbursementtohealthoutcomes•Inourview,companiesthatarepartofthecostsolutionstandtobenefitthemostfromthistrendSpecialty•Specialtyremainsthefastestgrowingareaofdrugspend•Withpayorslookingforwaystoaddressrisingspecialtycosts,companiesthathelpmanagespecialtyspendlikelytobenefitKeyThemesAcrosstheSectorTrumpBlueprint•Despiteconcernsoverchangestotherebatemodelandashifttonetpricing,wedon’texpectamajorimpactonthechannel•Whileinitiallydiscussedeliminatingmiddlemen,recenttoneonthePBMs’roleappearsmoreconstructiveCapitalDeployment•Wefavorcompanieswithstrongbalancesheetsandgoodcashflow•RecenttransformativedealsandthepotentialfordisruptiveentrantscouldleadtoamoreactivepursuitofM&Aand/orjointventuresintheneartermTheConsumer–TheSingleBiggestDisrupterinHealthcare•Patients(consumers)aregettingmoreinvolvedintheirhealthcareandmakingdecisionsonhowtoallocatetheirhealthcaredollars•Theopportunitytoengagepatientsattheirpreferredpointofserviceshouldbeanimportantdifferentiator•Convenience,quality,andcostwillbekey6KeyIncomingQuestionsAcrosstheSpaceHowBadIstheFundamentalBackdropintheRetailPharmacySpace?WhatCanDriveaReturntoPositiveMomentuminCVS?WhatAreOurThoughtsonWalgreensatCurrentLevels?CanSentimentGetAnyWorseforthePBMSpace?WhatAreOurLatestViewsonthePharmaDistributionSpace?CanDiplomatTurnThingsAround?7KeyIncomingQuestionsAcrosstheSpaceWhytheRecentPullbackinTeladoc?UnderlyingGrowthwithMacroHeadwindsPressuringtheLabs?LatestThoughtsinHCIT?OutlookforDentalConsumablesGrowthorMarginStabilization?AreThereAdditionalOpportunitiesforM&AAcrosstheSpace?AnyUpdatesontheRegulatoryFront?8HowBadIstheFundamentalBackdropinRetailPharmacy?ReimbursementpressurecontinuesConsolidationamonglargePBMs/payorsTop3PBMsaccountfor~77%oftotalscriptsPressurehasn’tnecessarilyincreasedthisyear,butunabletooffsetitashadinthepastWithgenericdeflationstabilizing,companiesnotseeingsamelevelofprocurementgainsFewernewmulti-sour