巴克莱美股医疗保健行业2019年上半年美国生命科学与诊断调查结果201942974页

EquityResearch29April2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE68.Restricted-InternalU.S.LifeScienceTools&Diagnostics1H19OB/GYNSurveySays:VolumesPositive,FocusonDx&GYNSurgicalInApril2019,weperformedour5thbiannualsurveyof50OB/GYN’stogaugemarkettrendsforGYNSurgicalandDx(HCT,NIPT,andcarrierscreening).A)Volumetrends:Underlyingvolumetrendslookconsistentandpositive,withOB/GYNsexpectingvolumestoincreaseoverthenextyearacrossallareasincludedinoursurvey.Volumeexpectationsskewedpositivelyforallofthetestingcategoriesincludedinoursurvey.Sentimentongrowthappearsmodestlybetterthanour2H18survey,butweakerthanourthreepriorsurveys.Amongstthecategories,NIPTpostedthestrongestresults–with58%ofphysiciansexpectingvolumegrowth,ofwhich16%expectsignificantgrowth(42%unchanged,0%decline).Carrierscreeningwasalsopositive,with32%ofphysiciansanticipatinggrowth,including10%forsignificantgrowth(68%unchanged).Together,thepositivemarketenvironmentisanencouragingread-throughformarketdynamicsforLabCorp,Quest,andatMyriad’srecentlyacquiredCounsylbusiness.MarketgrowthforHologic’sGYNSurgicalcategoriesalsoscreenedaspositive-with47%ofphysiciansexpectingvolumegrowthinendometrialablation(47%unchanged,7%decline)and41%expectinggrowthinpolypectomy/myomectomyprocedures(57%unchanged,2%decline).B)GYNSurgical:ForHologic,trendsintheGYNSurgicalcategoriesappearconsistentheadingintoFY2Q19earnings.NovaSuremarketsharelooksstableversusourpriorsurvey,andthesurgicaltoolcontinuestooutperformthecompetitionintermsofphysicianviewsonclinicaleffectiveness.Thatsaid,webelieveit’sprudenttomonitorcompetitivethreatsonthehorizongivenrecentsalesweakness.ForMyoSure,physicianadoptioncontinuestosteadilyincrease,from46%inour1H17surveyto54%in2H17,62%inboth1H18and2H18,to72%in1H19.Webelievethereisstillnear-termrunwayforMyoSuretodrivepenetration,thoughthegaprelativetotheadoptionofthemorematureNovaSureisclosing.Withcompetitivethreatsonthehorizon,aswellasrisingMyosureadoption,webelievestrongcommercialexecutionisgoingtobeneededtosustainmid-singledigitorganicgrowthHologic’sGYNSurgicalsegment(13%ofrevs)goingforward.C)Diagnostics:Overall,trendsinwomen’shealthdiagnosticsappearconsistentwithourpriorsurveys,whichshouldsupportcontinuedgrowthforparticipants,notablyLabCorp,Myriad,andQuestinourcoverage.ForNIPTandexpandedcarrierscreening,potentialupsidecouldbedrivenbymorefavorablereimbursementpolicies.Physicianshaveadesiretoconsolidatetestingsuppliers,whichshouldbeastrategicpositiveforLabCorp,Myriad,andQuestwithbroadwomen’shealthofferings.ExpandednetworkaccessforLabCorpandQuestin2019willfurtherreducebarrierstosinglevendoradoption.Formorecompanythoughts,pleaseseefrom4/16/2019,“1Q19Preview:FocusonBiopharmaasTools&DxRemainRelativeSafeHaven”.INDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsJackMeehan,[e-mail],USMitchellPetersen,[e-mail],[e-mail],USBarclays|U.S.LifeScienceTools&Diagnostics29April20192CONTENTSINTRODUCTIONANDSURVEYMETHODOLOGY.....................................3Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3SurveyMethodology......................................................................................................................................4VOLUMETRENDSLOOKCONSISTENTANDPOSITIVE...........................5GYNSURGICAL:STABLETRENDSWITHFOCUSONCOMPETITIONANDMYOSUREADOPTIONLEVELS.............................................................7OverallGYNSurgicalTakeaways...............................................................................................................7EndometrialAblationTakeaways...........................................................................................................13Polypectomy/MyomectomyProcedureTakeaways.........................................................................19WOMEN’SHEALTHDIAGNOSTICTESTING:TRENDSREMAINPOSITIVE,POTENTIALTAILWINDSFROMCOVERAGEEXPANSION.26OverallDiagnosticTestingTakeaways..................................................................................................26HereditaryCancerTestingTakeaways..................................................................................................34Non-InvasivePrenatalTestingTakeaways...........................................................................................38CarrierScreeningTakeaways...................................................................................................................44GYNSURGICALAPPENDIX...................