德银美股宏观经济白宫观点健康回调2018020726页

ResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseViewAhealthypullbackDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/[e-mail]@[e-mail]:07/02/201807:11:00GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseView–[e-mail]’sTaperTantrumwhichwastriggeredbyamuchsharperriseinrates.Fundamentalsremainsupportiveofriskassets.Therobust,broad-basedglobalexpansioncontinuesandinflationwillatlastacceleratein2018.Weexpectthesetrendstoevolvesteadilyenoughforcentralbankstotightenmonetarypolicygraduallyasplanned.Stronggrowthandrisingbutnothighratesshouldcontinuetosupportcorporateearningsandequityvaluationsevenasbondyieldssteadilyrise.Still,weexpectmarketturbulencetoreturnthisyear.Pullbacksandvolatilitywillbecomemorecommonasinvestorsadjusttorisinginterestratesandcapitalisallocatedoutofriskassetsandintohigher-yieldingfixedincome.Morevolatilityshouldnotderailtheunderlyingeconomicexpansionorfundamentallydentriskassets,butitwillmakemarketsmorebumpyandlesspredictable.DavidFolkerts-Landau,GroupChiefEconomist3TheHouseView,6February2018AhealthypullbackTheviewsinthispublicationareinformedbyDeutscheBank’sGlobalStrategyGroup,whichadvisesmanagementandclientsonbroadmarketrisksandglobaleconomicandfinancialdevelopments.Theviewsandforecastsofthegroup,whichconsistsofseniorresearchstaff,mayoccasionallydifferfromthosedisseminatedbytheirresearchcolleaguesTableofcontentsIntroduction4-boxesTotalreturnsMarketoverviewFlyingstartAsharpbuthealthypullbackSell-offoverdoneFXoutlookWeakerdollarMacrooutlookGlobalgrowthoverviewInflationoutlookCentralbanksoverviewItalianelectionandBrexitForecastsForecastsResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseView–[e-mail]Fed:expectanabove-consensus4hikesin2018ECB:slowexittocontinue.Nonewmeasuresuntilmid-2018;expectQEtoendin2018,firsthikeinmid-2019BoJ:notunderpressuretoact,nochangeexpectedintargetshortrateoryieldcurvecontrolpolicyBoE:onhold,riskisadditionalratehikesPBoC:policytighteningtocurbfinancialrisks,followedbysomeeasinginH2-2018toavoidgrowthslowdownEM:ratehikesespeciallyinAsia,whileLatAmcentralbankshavespacetoeasepolicyRobust,broad-basedglobalbackdropin2018(3.8%growth,higherthan2017).2018thepeakofthecurrentcyclicalexpansion,expectdecelerationfrom2019USgrowthtocontinueabovepotentialat2.6%in2018,upfrom2017.Taxreformtoadd0.3-0.4pp.DriversofgrowthbroadeningbeyondsolidconsumerspendingEurozonecyclicallystrong,growthof2.3%in2018,inlinewith2017.Mainconcernishowmuchlongercanabove-potentialgrowthlastEM:cyclicalaccelerationtocontinue,growthtickingupto4.9%in2018,evenasChinagrowthslowsslightlyMarketpullback:sell-offinriskassetsishealthy.ButfundamentalsremainsupportiveandmagnitudeappearsoverdoneInflation:despitedisappointmentin2017,weexpectinflationtoacceleratein2018asoutputgapscloseEndofQE:2018(almost)thelastyearofQE.Tobewatchedcarefully,givenQE’searlierimpactonrates,riskassetsPoliticalrisk:toremainprevalent(e.g.,Germany,Italy,Catalonia,Brexit,USmid-terms)butlittlemacroimpactViewsonkeythemesEconomicoutlookCentralbankwatchKeydownsideriskstoourviewNotes:H/M/Lindicatesestimatedprobabilityofrisk(High,Medium,Low).4Higherthanexpectedinflationsendsrateshigherasmonetarytighteningexpectationsbroughtforward,disruptsmarketsGlobalgrowthdisruption:aglobalequitycorrectionweighsonsentimentandwealth,triggersarecessionChinaslowdown:higherinflation,apolicymistake,orfinancialstressleadstosharpgrowthslowdown,withglobalramificationsthoughtrade,financialchannelsFinancialstability:tighterpolicy/slowergrowthcausesfinancialsectorinstability,esp.whereleverageishighMLTherobustglobalmacrobackdropwillcontinuein2018,withmonetarypolicycontinuingtograduallytightenLMResearchDeutscheBankTheHouseView–[e-mail]*perassetclassin2018EquitiesCommodities**FX**SovereigndebtCorporateCreditYTD20185Note:(*)Totalreturnaccountsforbothincome(interestordividends)andcapitalappreciation.(**)FX,Commoditiesarespotreturns.Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankResearch.AsofCOB,6-Feb-2018Ithasbeenquiteastartoftheyear,withanimpres