瑞银全球科技行业科技硬件与半导体三星S10系列拆解BOM成本正在下降201951328页

GlobalResearch13May2019UBSGlobalI/OTechHardware/SemisGalaxyS10SeriesTeardown:BOMcostscomingdown,atleastfornowBlendedBillofMaterialcostscomingdownforSamsung'sflagshipsmartphoneIncollaborationwithFomalhaut,weperformedadetailedTearDownanalysisoftheGalaxyS10series.WeestimatethatBillofMaterials(BOM)fortheS10(128GB)atUS$362,S10+(128GB)atUS$373,andS10e(128GB)muchloweratUS$289.ThiscomparestoourestimateofUS$328/US$375fortheS9/S9+(64GB)respectively.WhiletheBOMcostisupforS10comparedtotheS9mainlyduetocameraupgradesandunder-glassfingerprintadoption,weseethecostremainingflatforthePlusmodeldespitethesimilarspecupgrades,thankstomemorypricescomingdownmeaningfully.Whileoverallsmartphonedemandremainsweakin2019,wethinktheeasingofBOMcostcouldprovidesomeoffsettingfactorstoindustrymargins.Thatsaid,BOMpressurecouldamplifyby2H20as5Grampsup,andasmemorypricingstabilisesbymid'20.GalaxyS10seriesaccretivetomarginsthankstoASP,BOMandvolumeWeestimatethattheS10serieswillgenerateslightlybettermarginsthanthepreviousS9seriesthanksto1)lowerBOMcost,2)higherASP,and3)bettervolumes.WeestimatethatGalaxyS10seriescangenerate13.9%operatingmargin,orWon3.7tnofOPin2019(vs13.3%forS9seriesin2018).However,withSamsungtotalsmartphoneunitslikelyseeinganotherdecline(UBSe-3.3%YoY),wedonotbelievethiswillbeenoughtooffsetthemargincontractionfortotalMobileDevices.WeexpectSamsung'sIT&MobileComOPmargintodeclineto7.3%in2019vs10.1%in2018.Camerasupplychaingainsmorevalueshare,Samsungslightlydown(1)Samsungcontinuestokeepmostofthevalueinternal(c.48%),buttoalesserdegreevsS9asmemoryanddisplaypricecomesdown;(2)Qualcommgainingmorevalueshareduetounder-glassfingerprintsensor;(3)higherrearcameravaluecapturedbySamsungandSEMCO,(4)someshiftsincamerasupplychainasLarganbecomesthemainsupplierforfrontcameralens,andSunnyOpticalforrearToFmodule.Stockimplications:RemainingselectiveonsmartphonesuppliersWehaveaBuyratingonSamsungonthebackofFCF,inspiteofourNeutralviewonMemorySemis.AmongstSamsungsmartphonesupplierswecover,thosegainingcontentincludeBuy-ratedBroadcom(UR),Largan,Murata,SamsungSDI,SunnyOptical&TDK;Neutral-ratedGoertek,Osram,Partron,Qualcomm;andSell-ratedAAC&B[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]ShingoHirata,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]DavidMulholland,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]UBSGlobalI/O:TechHardware/Semis13May20192S10SeriesBOMcostsdownvsS9IncollaborationwithFomalhaut,weperformedadetailedTearDownanalysisoftheGalaxyS10series.WeestimatethatBillofMaterials(BOM)fortheS10+(128GB)atUS$373,S10(128GB)atUS$362,andS10e(128GB)muchloweratUS$289.ThiscomparestoourestimateofUS$375/US$328fortheS9+/S9(64GB)respectively,hencewhiletheBOMforS10isupby10%vsS9,forS10+thisisslightlydownby1%.TheBOMcostisupforS10mainlyduetocameraupgrades(totriplecamerafromsinglecameraforS9)andunder-glassfingerprintadoption.However,forthePlusmodel,despitehavingthesimilarspecupgrades,weseethecostmarginallystartingtocomedown.Thiswebelieveismainlydueto1)memorypriceshavingcomingdownmeaningfully(DRAM44-45%YoYandNAND58-59%YoYin2Q19E)and2)flexibleOLEDpricealsocontinuingtoseedoubledigitdeclineeachyearonaper-areabasis.ThelowestpricedS10ecomeswithaBOMcostof$289whichisfarlowerthananyoftheotherS9orS10series.ThishelpsmaketheaverageBOMcostforS10seriescomedownby3%vsS9series.NotethatthisdoesnotincludeS105Gmodel,whichwilllikelyhavemuchhigherBOMcost,butwithsmallvolumethisyear.However,into2020whenwewilllikelyseeapick-upin5Gvolumes,thiscouldstarttodriveuptheBOMcostagain.Figure1:GalaxyS10seriesBOMcostpermodel(US$)Figure2:GalaxySseries–avrBOMpergeneration(US$)Source:FomalhautTechnoSolution,UBSSource:FomalhautTechnoSolution,UBS*NotetheBOMcostisaverageofS10e/S10/S10+anddoesnotincludeS105G289362373050100150200250300350400S10eS10S10+100150200250300350400S3S4S5S6S7S8S9S10*+17%+9%-3%UBSGlobalI/O:TechHardware/Semis13May20193Figure3:MajorBOMcostchanges-S10+vsS9+(US$)Figure4:MajorBOMcostchanges–S10vsS9(US$)Source:FomalhautTechnoSolution,UBSSource:FomalhautTechnoSolution,UBSFigure5:GalaxyS10seriesBOMcostcomparison(US$)Figure6:GalaxyS10ExynosvsSnapdragon(US$)Source:FomalhautTechnoSolution,UBSSource:FomalhautTechnoSolution,UBSS