瑞银全球科技行业科技硬件与半导体指纹传感的回归以一种无形的方式201942330页

GlobalResearch23April2019UBSGlobalI/OTechHardware&SemisReturnoffingerprintsensing–inaninvisiblewayUnder-glassfingerprintsensingrapidlypickingupin2019EAlthoughthesmartphonemarketissaturatingin2019E,theindustrycontinuestopushforspecupgradeswithunder-glassfingerprintsensingbeingoneofthebrightspotsinAndroid.UBSEvidenceLabsuggests,inQ418,46%/79%ofglobal/Chineseconsumersbelievefingerprintsensingissomewhatimportantwhenbuyingnewphones.Weestimateunder-glassfingerprintsensorstoship229m/393munitsfor2019/20,implying20%/35%penetrationinAndroid.Weexpecttheopticalsolutiontodominatewith74%/77%sharein2019/20,givenitslowerrelativecost,andultrasonictherest.Wherearewedifferentfromconsensus?WearemoreoptimisticaboutchipASPfor2019,andexpecttechnologytochangewhenmigratingtowide-areasensing,whichmayposeariskfor8wafersin2021.Upsidein2019Eonpotentiallyhigher-than-expectedchipASPFortheopticalsolution,Goodixiscurrentlydominantwitha70-80%marketshareaccordingtooursupplychainstudy,butseveralcompaniesareplanningtorampmoremeaningfullyfromQ219.Themarketappearstobecautiousaboutfasterpricingerosion,butwethinkwithstilllimitedcapablesuppliers,thechipASPshouldstaywithinUS$4-5in2019,comparedwithexpectationsofUS$2-3,fromUS$7-8in2018.Potentialdownsidein2021for8semisdemandgiventechnologicalchangeThecurrentopticalhot-zonesolutionisbasedonsiliconCMOS.Forwide-areasensing,however,weexpecttheTFTprocesstobecomemainstreamduetoitslowercost.Thelarge-areasensorsshouldbeintroducedinH219,andshouldaccountfora35%shareofopticalproductsin2020E.Thisimpliesdemandislikelytobeflatin2020for8wafers,ashotzoneshipmentsstillgrowby15%butsuppliersalsoachievesomedieshrink,andpotentialdownsideriskinto2021ifthewide-areaTFTsolutiontakesoff.StockimplicationsForintegratedcircuit(IC)designers,weraiseMediaTek'spricetargetby5%toreflectthehighervalueofitsGoodixholding,andwehaveaSellonFingerprintCardsduetoashrinkingcapacitivemarketanditsslowdevelopmentintounder-glass.Forthesupplychain,webelieveTSMC,TianshuiHuatian,8wafers,O-FilmandPartronbenefitin2019/20,butriskforsemiscontentin2021.WeliftO-FilmandPartron'sPTstofactorintheupside.Thesuccessoffingerprintsensorswouldbenegativefor3Dsensingplayersintermsoffront-facingAndroidvolumes(rear-facingremainsanopportunity).Figure1:CompanieswouldbepotentiallyimpactedCompanyBBGRatingNewPreviousSharepriceMarketcapTickerpricetarget(LC)pricetarget(LC)(LC)(US$m)PotentialbeneficiariesTSMC2330TTBuy285.00285.00266.00223,572MediaTek2454TTBuy345.00330.00289.0014,721O-FilmTech002456CHBuy19.3018.4014.055,686Huatian002185CSBuy7.507.505.631,794Partron091700KQNeutral13,600.0011,000.0013,450.00638PotentialcasualtiesFPCFINGBSSSell(CBE)7.007.0013.50456Note:Pricedate22April2019;FPC18April2019.Source:ThomsonReuters,UBSestimates,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]DavidMulholland,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]ShingoHirata,[e-mail][phone]UBSGlobalI/O:TechHardware&Semis23April20192SemiconductorUBSResearchTHESISMAPMOSTFAVOREDLEASTFAVOREDTSMC,MediaTek,O-FilmTech,TianshuiHuatianFingerprintCardsPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ:Howbigistheunder-glassfingerprintsensormarketin2019/20?Weexpecttheunder-glassfingerprintsensormodulemarkettobeworthUS$1.7/2.6bnin2019/20.Webelievethemajorbeneficiariesaresensormakersandmodulemakers,andpotentialcasualtiesare3Dsensingsolutionsproviders(especiallystructurelight).Opticalsensingsolutionisaslightpositivetofoundry(TSMC),8wafersandbackendfor2019/20,buttheupsidemaydisappearin2021iftechnologyswitchestoTFTpanel-basedforcheaperwiderareasensing.moreQ:Whichunder-glasssensingtechnologyisleadinginadoption?Weexpectopticalsensingtobethemainstreamsolutionwith70%-plusmarketsharein2019/20givenlowercosts.BothopticalandultrasonicsensingcanonlycurrentlysupportAMOLEDdisplaywithaspecificarea.Astheindustrymovestolargerareasensing,wethinktheopticalsolutionshouldremaincompetitivebutsensortechnologymaychangefromthecurrentCMOS-basedsensorstoTFT-basedonesforcostreasons.ForLCDsmartphones,under-glassfingerprintsensorsmaynottakeoffuntil2020giventechnologicaldifficulties.moreQ:CouldtheopticalfingerprintsensorpricefallbelowUS$3in2019?(US$7-8in2018)WearemoreoptimisticaboutchipASPaswebelievethecompe