德银拉美饮料行业拉美消费者月报市场动荡与政治风险中行业应得到牵引2018021651页

16February2018BeveragesLatamConsumerMonthlyBeveragesIndustryUpdateLatinAmericaIndustryLatamConsumerMonthlyDate16February2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAmidmarketturmoil/politicalrisks,sectorshouldgaintraction(Feb.2018)Broad-basedrally,butallsubsectorsunderperformedInJanuary,therisingtideliftedmostboats;butwhile71%ofourcoveredstocksshowedpositivereturnsonly21%outperformedtheirrespectiveindices.Severalretailstocksfromacrosstheregionhaddouble-digitgainsinUSDterms(ARZZ3,LREN3,CHDRAUIB,LIVEPOLC1,IMI),asdidVCO,BIMBOA,andNATU3inthestaplesside.Otherstockswithhigh-single-digitgainsincludedJBSS3,KOF,BTOW3andSORIANAB.NotabledeclinersincludedBEEF3andGRUMAB(bothdeclinedby6.0%andaretradingnear52-weeklows).Yeartodate,allthesubsectorsinLatAmconsumerunderperformedtheirrespectiveindiceswithFood,Retail,HPCandBeveragestrailingtheirrespectivecountryindicesby13.1%,4.6%,3.6%and3.2%,respectively,onaverage.Butconsideringtherecentincreaseinvolatilityandcorrectioninglobalequitymarkets,combinedwithongoingpoliticalrisks,wewouldexpectthemoredefensiveLatinConsumerstockstogainmoretractionincomingmonths.Kimberly-ClarkdeMexicotoproposeflat(butall-cash)dividendKCM'sBoardmeton13Februarytoapprovetheproposalsforthisyear'sAGM.Themostimportantamongthemwasthedividenddeclarationfor2018:anall-cashdividendofP1.58/share.Thisisthefirsttimeincloseto40yearsasapubliccompanythatKCMhasnotraiseditsdividendbyatleastMexicaninflation(whichwouldimplyadeclarationofP1.69for2018),butthishasbeenwellcommunicatedsincemid-2017duringmanagementconferencecalls.Inthelatestcall,infact,managementmentionedthatthedividendwouldlikelybeflatversus2017(giventhecurrentmacro/politicaluncertaintyandinputcostheadwinds)andthatitmightbepartiallypaidinstock.Becausethey(wisely,inourview)abandonedthatidea,incomeinvestorsfinallymanagedtoexhale(andthestockreactedaccordingly).KCMcontinuestohaveacomfortablecashpositiononwhichtodrawandthusshouldbeabletoabsorbanotheryearofnegativefreecashflow(afterdividends)whilenavigatingthecurrentuncertainty.For2019,weexpectlowerinflationandmarginrecoverytoallowKCM'sboardtoreturntoitslong-standingdividendpolicy(ofraisingdividendatleastbyMexicaninflation).JoseYordanResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-5528MarcelMoraesResearchAnalyst+1-904-271-2470YusufJamal,CFAResearchAssociateKailaLopezResearchAssociate+1-904-645-1197DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:16/02/201821:50:20GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa16February2018BeveragesLatamConsumerMonthlyTableOfContentsDBRelatedResearch—January..........................................3LatinAmerica:LatamRetail-4Q17preview;QuestionbankonLata................3Global:EuropeanBeveragesassumptionofcoverage,CEEMEAretail..............4DBLatAmConsumerCoverageSummaries.......................5GlobalPeerValuationTables..............................................9HistoricalValuationMultiples...........................................21LatAmFoodstocks..........................................................................................21LatAmBeveragestocks....................................................................................23LatAmHousehold&PersonalCarestocks......................................................26LatAmRetailstocks.........................................................................................27InputCostTracker.............................................................32Beveragerawmaterials:worldsugarstabilizingnearmulti-yearl...................32Grainpricesrisingslightlyin............................................................................33Pulpstillrisingfrommulti-yearlows;oilkeepsrisingamidglo.......................35BrazilProteinUpdate........................................................37UpdateontheConsumer(BR,MX,CL,CO).....................38Brazil:proceedingataslightlyhigherpace,butpoliticalrisks........................38Mexico:somepositivesigns,butNAFTAandthe2018electionrema............40Chile:recoverytopickupdespitepauseineasingcycle,asthe.....................42Colombia:withoilrising,looksliketheworstisover.....................................43ValuationandRisks..........................................................45Page2DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Page3DBRelatedResearch—JanuaryLatinAmerica:LatamRetail-4Q17preview;QuestionbankonLatamConsumers■LatamRetail-4Q17preview-MarcelMoraes-Feb6,2018■Cencosud-Revisingestimatesdownwardgivenstuntedgrowth-MarcelMoraes-Jan31,2018■Natura-TheBodyShop:Alongandbumpyroadahead-MarcelMoraes-Jan25,2018■CarrefourBrasil-Carrefour2022-amildpositiveforBrazil-MarcelMoraes-Jan24,2018■CarrefourBrasil-4Q17sales-MarcelMoraes-Jan17,2018■ConchayToro-Recentstrengthjustifiedbyimprovingharvest/SG&Aoutlook(maintainBuy)-JoseYor