我国信息制造业上市公司成长性分析及实证研究

摘要I我国信息制造业上市公司成长性分析及实证研究摘要上市公司的成长性是描述该上市企业一定时期内业绩发展、变化的一种状态，合理进行成长性评价，找到合适的预测方法，正确预测上市公司未来的成长性，无论对投资者、债权人还是上市公司本身而言，都具有非常重要的意义。本文以在公司成长上比较有代表性的信息制造业上市公司2005-2007年3年数据为研究样本，依据成长特性将其划分为三类，分别是成长性公司、一般公司和ST公司，并选取包括短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力、营运能力、获利能力、发展能力、股东回报能力、现金实力在内的财务指标作为备选变量，通过因子分析法分别计算各个上市公司在各能力指标上的因子得分，然后利用Fisher多类线性判别分析法建立成长性评价模型，从而对信息制造业上市公司的成长情况作出分析和评价。经过实际数据的分析，得出以下结论：Fisher多类线性判定分析方法能够对我国信息制造业上市公司的成长性进行有效评价；信息制造业上市公司的股票回报能力在一定程度上反映了它们的成长能力；一般公司的获利能力和发展能力与成长性公司没有显著区别；成长性的公司其各个财务指标能力的发展较为均衡，整体运行情况良好，它们在营运能力方面与其它公司有着显著区别。关键词：信息制造业，成长性，判别分析IIANALYSISANDEMPIRICALSTUDYONGROWTHOFDOMESTICLISTEDCOMPANIESININFORMATIONMANUFACTURINGSECTORABSTRACTThegrowthoflistedcompaniesistodescribethedevelopmentinperformanceoflistedcompaniesinacertainperiodoftime.Reasonablyassessthegrowth,findingthesuitableforecastingmethodandcorrectlypredictingthegrowthoflistedcompaniesinthefuture,nomatterfortheinvestors，creditorsorthelistedcompanies,areveryimportant.Thedissertationanalysesthedataoflistedcompaniesininformationmanufacturingsector,usingthe2005-2007’sdate.Basedonthegrowthindexesthecompaniesaredividedintothreecategories:growthingcompany,commoncompanyandSTcompany.Sevenkindsoffinancialindexesareselected,includingshort-termpaymentability,long-termpaymentability,operatingcapacity,profitability,developmentcapacity,shareholdersprofitabilityandcashcapacity.Andfactoranalysisareusedineachkindoffinancialindextoobtainfactorscores.ThenFishermultiplediscriminantanalysisareusedtoestablishgrowthassessmentmodeloflistedcompaniesininformationmanufacturingsector.摘要IIIAftertheanalysisofactualdata,theconclusionsareasfollow:Fishermultiplediscriminantanalysisisvalidtoanalysethegrowthoflistedcompaniesininformationmanufacturingsector;theshareholdersprofitabilityofcompaniesinthissectorreflectstheirgrowthinacertainextent;Thereisnosignificantdifferencebetweencommoncompaniesandgrowthingcompaniesfortheirprofitabilityanddevelopmentcapacity;growthingcompanieshaveagoodperformanceinallkindsoffinancialindexesandbetteroperatingcapacitythancommoncompanies.KEYWORDS：informationmanufacturingsector,growth,discriminantanalysisIV目录第一章绪论..............................................................................................................11.1研究背景...........................................................................................................11.2研究意义...........................................................................................................11.3研究思路...........................................................................................................21.4研究框架...........................................................................................................21.5研究方法...........................................................................................................31.6本文的创新点...................................................................................................4第二章文献综述....................................................................................................52.1成长理论的发展...............................................................................................52.2成长性的定义...................................................................................................62.3评价指标体系的建立.......................................................................................72.4计量方法的选择.............................................................................................12第三章上市公司成长性评价方法..................................................................153.1因子分析法.....................................................................................................153.1.1因子分析法的基本思想.......................................................................153.1.2因子分析法的原理与计算步骤...........................................................163.2成长性评价方法比较.....................................................................................173.2.1判别分析...............................................................................................173.2.2Logistic回归........................................................................................183.2.3决策树...................................................................................................183.2.4人工神经网络.......................................................................................183.2.5分类方法的比较...................................................................................19第四章我国信息制造业的发展概状.............................................................224.1信息制造业已成为高速增长的高技术产业的典型代表.............................224.2信息制造业的劳动生产率.............................................................................254.3信息制造业出口情况.....................................................................................254.4小结.................................................................................................................26第五章我国信息制造业成长性实证分析....................................................275.1研究工具................................................................................