凯捷咨询解决问题的方法与假设（英文版）

StructuredProblemSolving&HypothesisGenerationConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/2GoalsofthismoduleLayoutasystematicapproachtosolvingbusinessproblems–“StructuredProblemSolving”Establishacommon“modusoperandus”forConsultingteamsPracticethesuggestedprocessonareal-lifeexampleConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/6DefiningtheissueisthefirststepinthejourneytofinalrecommendationsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplementFindInsightsAnalyseDataGatherDataFormHypothesesSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowDefinetheIssuesWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysisConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/7Hypothesisformationensuresthatouranalysisisfocusedonourclient’sproblemFormHypothesesDefinetheIssuesGatherDataAnalyseDataFindInsightsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplementSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysisConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/8Hypothesesaredevelopedinthreesteps•Whataretherealstrategicissues?•Whatistheimpactontheorganisation?•Whatarethepriorities?•Wethink...•Itlookslike...•Therightanswermaybe...•Theoptionscouldbe...•Webelievethistobetrue...•Aseriesofstatements,notyetbackedbydata•BasedoninitialdatasearchorexpertopinionsAnumberofassertionsneedtobetrueforahypothesistobevalid.Isthereamarketforwhitelabelinsuranceproducts?•Directchannelsaregrowing•Retailershaveastrongchannelandbrand•ThereareexistingproductsChubbInsurancecanaccessnewbusinessbyusingthebrandstrengthofTescoresultingIslowcostofacquisitionandprofitablebusinessDefinethequestionReviewandDescribeMultipleAssertionsFormthehypothesis123ConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/9AhypothesisshouldidentifynotonlytheissuebutalsothecauseandtheimpactThinkthroughthesethreestagesasyoucreateahypothesistohelpyouplanouthowyouwilltestit:Whatistheissue?Whatistheunderlyingopportunity?Whereistheadvantage?Whatdoyouthinkcausestheissue?Whatarethekeydriversoftheprocess?Whatistheimpactoftheissue?Howcanwetellthereisanopportunity?Whydowecare?“xisanopportunity...”“…dueto...”“…resultingin...”ConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/12DEFINETHEPROBLEMSTRUCTURETHEANALYSISFINDTHESOLUTIONOurproblemsolvingapproachproducesresultsthroughansweringasimpleseriesofquestionsIsthereaproblemoropportunity?Ifsowheredoesitlie?Whydoesitexist?Whatcouldwedoaboutit?Whatshouldwedoaboutit?Fine,butIWIKH2dothis...ConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/16“Ifyoudon’tknowwhereyouaregoing,anyroadwilltakeyouthere.”-AnonymousWhyproblemdefinitionmattersConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/17Instructuringaproblem,breakitintosmaller,easier-to-handlecomponentsANDstartwiththerightdefinitionsUSCarMarketLightTrucksPassengerCarsBig3MiniVansSportUtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerButbecareful—whydoesthisnotwork?ConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/18MutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustiveThemostimportantruleforanystructureyouimposeConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/31DEVELOPAHYPOTHESISWhatdifferentiatesagoodhypothesisfromabadone?Ontarget:Answersthecorequestionontheclients’mindAccurate:EmbracestheentirerangeofcompetitiveorprofitdriversMinimal:“Occam’srazor”Actionable:CanbequantifiedandtestedOntimeGoodHypothesesAreCannotberefutedCannotpossiblybequantifiedRequireyouto“BoiltheOcean”AresoobviousthatnobodycanintelligentlydisagreewithitOrlooklikeanabstractmodelofaprocessconsistingofboxes,arrowsandcloudsBadHypothesesConsultingSkillsWorkshop©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedXxx/yymmdd-StructuredProblemSolvingandHypothesisGeneration,Author/32DEVELOPAHYPOTHESISHowtofindagoodhypothesisThereareprovenprocessestogeneratehypotheses:TalktolotsofpeopleaboutthecoreproblemHaveabrainstormingcaseteammeetingTaguchimethod—ask“5Why’s”Startwithgeneralvaliditychecksforyourhypotheses:Assumeperfectrationality—howoughtthebusinesssystemtobehave?Lookforanalogies(otherindustriesorproblems)Imaginethatyouhadperfectinformation—whatwouldtheidealanalysislook