后危机时代新贸易保护主义的分析

集美大学硕士学位论文后危机时代新贸易保护主义的分析姓名：段俊丽申请学位级别：硕士专业：国民经济学指导教师：林媛媛2011-06-10I2007IITheAnalysisofTradeProtectionismInPost-financial-crisisEraAbstractTheanalysis’sbasicstandpointofNewTradeProtectionisminpost-CrisiseraisUSfinancialcrisiseruptsin2007,andtheexpandingofitsnegativeeffect,developingintoaseriousworld-classeconomiccrisis.Domesticeconomyofmainwestcapitalistcountriesslumpfiercely,andtheirdemandatrophiedwithlargescaleandtheindustrialcompetitivepowerrapiddeclined.Underthisbackground,theUS-ledmaineconomiestooktheleadtoinitiatenewlyroundhasbeenforthepurposeofsavingourcountryeconomy,gotridofeconomiccrisis'stradeprotectionismpolicy.Thenewtradeprotectionismbesideshavethecharacteristicwhichthetraditiontradeprotectionismpolicyhas,butalsohassomecrisisbackgroundhistoricalcharacteristics,liketheprotectiongoalistosavethecountryeconomyortosaveonecountryeconomytoplaceitselfoutsidetheeconomiccrisis,protectmeasuresdiverse,andhastheconfidentiality,thescopeprotectedhasexpandedandobtainsintheregionextendsandsoon.Basedonsuchainternationaleconomyenvironmentaftercrises,manycountrieshavemadetheconservativetradepolicychoice.Thisarticlewillstudyinthepredecessorinthefoundationemphaticallyfrompoliticaleconomy'sangleembarking.Theapplicationrelatedpolicymodeltoanalyzetheformationmechanismofnewtradeprotectionism,simultaneouslydiscussthetradepolicycooperation'sinstabilityofdevelopedcountryandthedevelopingcountrywiththegametheoryangleaswellascrisis'snewtradeprotectionismtheeconomiceffectwhichbringstovariouscountries.Throughthearticleanalysis,wemayknowthatthenationaltradepolicybetweencountriesisnothasbecomeinvariably.Changesofinternationalenvironmentorstateeconomy'sdegreeofdevelopmentplayadecisiveroleintradepolicy'stransformation.Thecrisiseruptedtheinevitableresultwhichtradeprotectionismcarryingout,evenifsuchpolicycanonlyhavethenegativeinfluenceregardingtheworldeconomicsregardingourcountryeconomy'srestoration.Keyword:financialcrisis,newtradeprotectionism,politicaleconomy,effectanalysis112008207080211.1“”21.21.2.11516-171820701.2.1.115-18161.2.1.2319401.2.1.3203041.2.1.4207051.2.220081.2.2.1[1]2009[2]2010[3]2009WTO[4]2009[5]2010[6]2009WTO[7]201070[8]2009[9]2010[10]2008[11]2010[12]20106[13]20101.2.2.2[14]2010[15]2009[16]2009[17]2010[18]20082006[19]2006[20]2006[21]2008[22](2009)7[23]20091.2.2.3[24]2007,[25]2010[26]2009[27]2007WTO[28]20102*2*2[29]2009[30]2008[31]20108[32]2008[33]2009[34]2009[35]2009[36]20081.31.3.191.3.2101.41.51122.1122.1.1tiiYiiXiiMiiPiPi*iiiiPPtθ∗=+01θ=1iiiPPt∗=+01θ≤tθiiYtθ∑iiXtθ∑iiMt∑Wiiiiii()iiiiiWYtXtMtYXtMtθθθ=−+=−+∑∑∑∑∑(2.1)Miti0iidMdt,0,0iiMabtab=−(2.2)(2.1)2ii()iiiWYXtatatθ=−+−∑∑(2.3)Wii()20iiiMtYXabtθ∂∂=−+−=(2.4)ii[()]2itaYXbθ=+−(2.5)iiiMXY=−2.2iiiXYabt−=−(2.6)132.5(1)a(2)itbθθ=−−(2.7)it2.1.22.1.2.1LαHαSLCHCiLLHHtSCCαα=−+(2.8)LαHα0,0,0,0LHLHCCαα≥≥≥≥2.82.1.2.2,2.814(1-)01β≤≤1-(C+C)[()]()iiiiiLHWYXtMtβθβ=−+−∑∑(2.9)tiCC1-()2()()0LHiiiiiiWYXabttttβθβββ∂∂∂=−+−−+=∂∂∂(2.10)iiiiMXYabt=−=−2.8iLLHHtSCCαα=−+C1LiLtα∂=−∂(2.11)C1HiHtα∂=∂(2.12)2.112.122.10CC()2(1)()0LHiiiibtaabtttβθβββ∂∂−+−−−+=∂∂(2.13)1111()2(2)iLHatbbθβθβθαα−−=+−−−(2.14)2.1.2.312abθθ−−2.7111()(2)LHbββθαα−−−=12.1412iatbθθ−=−2.71β≠111()(2)LHbββθαα−−−b15LHαα110LHαα−111()0(2)LHbββθαα−−−LHαα11LHαα111()0(2)LHbββθαα−−−LHαα=11LHαα=111()0(2)LHbββθαα−−=−LαHαLHααHαLαLHαα2.2161973197519762.2.1172.2.2t()hCt()pCt()()()nhpCtCtCt=−(2.15)()ptptptuuC=()()ntntntnttptuuCuCC==−(2.16)tρ[0,T][0,]tT∈t=000(())(())TTttPPntnUeUCtdteUCtdtρρ−−=+∫∫(2.17)2.171100()()11TTttnPCtCtUedtedtθθρρθθ−−−−=+−−∫∫(2.18)110()()1TtPnCtCtedtθθρθ−−−+=−∫(2.19)''(())0'(())CUCtUCtθ−=((),())YYCtCt−=(2.20)18()Ct−()()()YtrtCt∂=∂(2.21)22()()0()()()()0,0;lim0,lim()()()()CtCtYtYtYtYtCtCtCtCt→∞→∂∂∂∂==∞∂∂∂∂m1()rm01t0()()trmdmRtee∫=t()hCt()()00(()())()TTRtRtPnheCtCtdteCtdt−−+≤∫∫(2.22)11()()000()()[()(()())]1TTTtRtRtPnhPnCtCtLedteCtdteCtCtdtθθρλθ−−−−−+=+−+−∫∫∫(2.23)()PCt()nCtλ()0()()tRttRtPPPLeCteeCteCtρθρθλλ−−−−−−∂=−=⇒=∂(2.24)()0()()tRttRtnnnLeCteeCteCtρθρθλλ−−−−−−∂=−=⇒=∂(2.25)()()00()(()())0TTRtRthPnLeCtdteCtCtdtλ−−∂=−+=∂∫∫(2.26)()()00()(()())TTRtRthPneCtdteCtCtdt−−⇒=+∫∫(2.27)2.242.250ln()ln()tPtCtrmdmρθλ−−=−∫(2.28)0ln()ln()tntCtrmdmρθλ−−=−∫(2.29)2.282.29t()()()ppCtrtCtρθ•−=(2.30)()()()nnCtrtCtρθ•−=(2.31)192.2.32090202132090,2007,3.11212G={S1S2;U1U2}S1S2U1U2U1=u1(S1S2)U2=u2((S1S2)S1S2S1=L1H1S2=L2H2,LH223.23.2.1251612314U1U212(,)HH1L1H1L2H23,41,87,25,63.1233.2.21212{,;,}GSSUU=(3.1)…,x12{,,}mXxx=…,y12{y,,}mYy=1{|0;1}iiSXxx=≥=∑2{|0;1}iiSYyy=≥=∑XY12S1S2U1U2120UU+≠12uvu,vu,vPP(u,vP00)∈G={u,vu≥u0,v≥v0,u,vP}1(u*,v*)u*≥u0v*≥v02uv3S1S1v1S1S2≤v1S1S2ΦPu,v00,uuvv00(,)(,)uvPuuvv∈00(,)()()fuvuuvv=−−(u*,v*)2400[(,),](u,v)uvP∗∗Φ=3.200(,)uvP∈Φ12u+vbβ=u.v00{(,)|,,u+v,Guvuuvvbβ=≥≥=(u,v)P00max()()()fuuuvv=−−00()(u)uubvβ=−−−0000u(u)bvuuvbuββ=−++−+−(3.3)0020dfduuubvββ=−++−=(3.4)00()2uubvββ∗=+−(3.5)00()2vvbuβ∗=+−(3.6)113.2.325(u*,v*)2644.14.1PEPtdbejhgfPMCDESEPEaiQ4ODMSMQ1Q2Q3Q5Q6Q7Q84.127Q4Q1Q4-Q1Q5Q8Q8-Q5PtQ8Q7f+g+h+iQ5Q6fh+jQ7-Q6[j-(g+i)]jPePtj(g+i)j(g+i)gijQ1Q2d+eQ4Q3a+b+c+d+eQ3-Q2a+b+ca+b+c+d+eff+g+h+id+e20099124.2WTO284