2015年小美赛获奖论文B

第四届“认证杯”数学中国数学建模国际赛承诺书我们仔细阅读了第四届“认证杯”数学中国数学建模国际赛的竞赛规则。我们完全明白，在竞赛开始后参赛队员不能以任何方式（包括电话、电子邮件、网上咨询等）与队外的任何人（包括指导教师）研究、讨论与赛题有关的问题。我们知道，抄袭别人的成果是违反竞赛规则的,如果引用别人的成果或其他公开的资料（包括网上查到的资料），必须按照规定的参考文献的表述方式在正文引用处和参考文献中明确列出。我们郑重承诺，严格遵守竞赛规则，以保证竞赛的公正、公平性。如有违反竞赛规则的行为，我们将受到严肃处理。我们允许数学中国网站()公布论文，以供网友之间学习交流，数学中国网站以非商业目的的论文交流不需要提前取得我们的同意。我们的参赛队号为：2047我们选择的题目是：B题参赛队员(签名)：队员1：尹修草队员2：厉珍珠队员3：方晓静参赛队教练员(签名)：房少梅第四届“认证杯”数学中国数学建模国际赛编号专用页参赛队伍的参赛队号：2047竞赛统一编号（由竞赛组委会送至评委团前编号）：竞赛评阅编号（由竞赛评委团评阅前进行编号）：TheaveragetemperatureinAntarcticaAbstract:Globalwarmingisahotissue.Thepastcentury,ashumanactivities,asubstantialincreaseintheatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxideandothergreenhousegases,theearthisgrowingwarmthanthegreenhouseeffect.Antarcticaistheworld'schangingsensitiveareas,duetothespecialgeographicallocationandtheuniquenaturalenvironmentoftheAntarcticwhich,measureddataanalysisandstudyoftheAntarcticdivisionalsohasimportantsignificance.Inthispaper,theBritishAntarcticSurveywebsiteget2000--2015yearsofmeasuredtemperaturedata,duetotheinfluenceoftheAntarcticsurfacetemperaturebylocationandviewingheight,sothefirstuseofclusteranalysis,meanmodelestablishedforweatherclassification,togiveTheaveragetemperatureintheAntarctic,andthenstudytheAntarcticsurfacetemperaturevariationbetweenthetimeweappliedtimeseriesanalysismethods.Becausethetemperaturethereareseasonalfactorsatthesametimeonthesubject,accordingtothedecompositionfactorsandtheanalysisofautocorrelationcoefficientswereanalyzedonfourareas,selectedsuitableAR,MA,ARMAorARIMAmodelfittingandpredictedthattheuseofSPSSsoftwaremodel,aswellasin2016theaveragemonthlytemperatureispredicted.Throughtheabovemodelingprocess,tofindachangeoftemperatureoftheAntarctic.Models:092.0238.01827.01662.0154.235)1(ttYtYttXtYt972.0827.01028.0061.44)2(tXtYt963.0535.61987.0094.0)3(tXtttYYt927.02265.01538.0729.151078.0239.1000)4(Keywords:Timeseries,Clusteranalysis,SPSS,RAIMA,PredictionContents1.Introduction.................................................................................................................................11.1Globalatmosphericchangeandglobalwarming.…………....................................................11.2ThepurposeandmeaningofresearchAntarctictemperatures………………............……....11.3Antarctictemperatures……………………………………………......…………………......22.TheDescriptionofProblem…..................................................................………………......22.1Restatementoftheproblem.....................................................................................................22.2Theproblemanalysis…………….………..............................................................................23.Models……………....................................................................................................................33.1SymbolsandAssumptions..........................................................................................................33.2DateprocessingModel...............................................................................................................33.31ClusteranalysisModel.............................................................................................................33.32TimeseriesModel...................................................................….............................................43.4SolutionandResultofClusteranalysisModel........................................................…...............63.5SolutionandResultofTimeseriesModel.......................…............................….......................73.5.1Model1.....................................................................................................................................83.5.2Model2.....................................................................................................................................133.5.3Model3....................................................................................................................................183.5.4Model4....................................................................................................................................234.Conclusions................................................................................................................................275.FutureWork...............................................................................................................................276.References..................................................................................................................................277.Appendix.....................................................................................................................................2811、Introduction1.1Globalatmosphericchangeandglobalwarming.Scientificunderstandingofglobalwarmingisincreasing.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)reportedin2014thatscientistsweremorethan95%certainthatglobalwarmingisbeingcausedmostlybyincreasingconcentrationsgreenhousegasesandother