麦肯锡_未来商业模式（PDF39页）

USPSFutureBusinessModelMarch2,2010McKinsey&Company1|Contents!Recentcontext!Basecase–minimalmanagementactions!Addressingthechallenge!ShorttermrequirementsMcKinsey&Company2|USPSisexperiencingunprecedentedlossesSOURCE:USPS;P.L.109-435(PAEA)-7.8220100.9051.4043.1033.902-0.701-1.72000-0.206-2.80907-5.108-3.8Netprofit/loss$billionsPostalAct2006signedintolawNote:AllyearsinthisdocumentrefertoFiscalYearsendingonSept301Includesone-time$4billiondeferral2Per2010IntegratedFinancialPlan(JanuaryYear-to-DateresultsarefavorabletoPlan)8.45.61.415.5RHBpre-funding,$billionsKeydrivers!Revenuedeclinesdueto:–E-diversionofFirst-ClassMail–Down-tradingfromFirst-ClasstoStandardMail–Lossesofadvertisingmailduetotherecession!RHBpre-fundingrequirementintroducedbythePAEA!Costsavings,whilesubstantial,havebeenlessthanrevenuedeclinesduetohighfixedcostsofthenetworkNorateincrease2003-2006RecentContextMcKinsey&Company3|Losseshavebeendrivenbyvolumedeclines,RHBpre-fundingrequirementsandlimitationsoncostsavings0.9FY2006Netincome4.0FY2009Netincome-3.8RHBdeferralCostsavings12.6RHBpre-fundingrequirement5.5Revenuedecline115.8Driversofchangeinnetincome2006vs.2009$billionsSOURCE:USPS2006AnnualReport;USPS2010Budget1Revenuedeclinescalculatingbyapplying2009pricesagainst2006-09volumedeclines!Volumedeclinesof17%,drivenby–E-substitution–Adspendshifttootherchannels–Deeprecession!Savingsdrivenby–Reductionofovertime–Extremeslow-downinhiring–Routeconsolidation–VolumereductionRecentContextMcKinsey&Company4|Volumedeclineshavebeenworsethanexpectedwhenthecurrentlegalandregulatoryframeworkwasestablished240230220210200190180170160020100908070605042003ActualUpsideforecastDownsideforecastBasecaseforecastSOURCE:USPS2005forecasts2!WhenPAEAwaspassed,volumeprojectionsdidnotanticipatethecurrentscaleofdeclines!PAEAintroducedsomeadditionalproductflexibility,butalsotwocrucialrestrictions:–PriceincreasescappedatCPIbyclass–Significantpre-fundingrequirementsforRetireeHealthBenefits(RHB)1PostalAccountabilityandEnhancementAct,20062Forecastsfrom“USPSStrategicTransformationPlan”,2005VolumeforecastsandactualsBillionsofpiecesPAEAimplications1RecentContextMcKinsey&Company5|First-ClassMail,StandardMailandGDPgrowthCumulativeincreasefrom1973,percentTherecessionhasexacerbatedvolumedeclines,butmailhasreachedaninflectionpoint,withe-diversionnowdrivinglongtermdecline250150StandardMailvolume30010002005200019951990198519801975First-ClassMailvolumeRealGDP20050350400SOURCE:USPS2009RecentContextMcKinsey&Company6|RetireeHealthBenefitfundingrequirementsareasignificantburden,equalto12%oftotalrevenuein2010RHBpayments,2006–2010$billionSOURCE:USPS200910-K;USPS2010Budget8.45.61.45.5200923.42.020087.41.82007110.11.720061.620102.27.7!Pre-fundingisuniquetoUSPSwithinthepublicsector,andrare(andnotrequired)withintheprivatesectorDriversofRHBrequirements!Scheduleofpre-fundingrequirementsisacceleratedinthefirst10yearsofthe50yearliability!ActuarialestimatesoftotalRHBliabilityvarywidelybasedondifferencesindiscountrates,futurehealthcarecosts,thesizeoftheworkforce,andperiodofpre-fundingPAEAscheduledpre-fundingrequirementEmployerpremiumsRecentContext1$8.4Bscheduledpaymentincludes$3BlegacypaymentfromCSRS2$1.4Bscheduledpaymentincludes$4BdeferralfromCongressMcKinsey&Company7|Recentreductionsinworkforceusagehavebeensignificant,butpiecesperFTEstilldeclinedin2009262072650626105258200925103243022340424908012312000227USPSworkforceFTEs1,ThousandsPiecesperFTEPiecesperyear,thousandsSOURCE:USPS1FullTimeEquivalent,basedonworkhours(includesovertime)02009711080706059509008508007507001,000040302012000917RecentContextMcKinsey&Company8|TheUSPShasbeenresponsivetodecliningvolume,butrecentworkhourreductionswillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttoreplicateSOURCE:FY200910-K;2007and2009NationalPayrollHourSummaryReportWorkhoursreductionSourcesofworkhoursreduction74M(45%)12M(7%)79M(48%)MillionsofhoursRecentContext1,1751469020071,423OvertimeNon-career6720091,2581,101Career102-12%CareerNonCareerOvertime55%ofreductionshavecomefromnon-careerandovertimeMcKinsey&Company9|Contents!Recentcontext!Basecase–minimalmanagementactions!Addressingthechallenge!ShorttermrequirementsMcKinsey&Company10|FourtrendswillaffectpostaleconomicsgoingforwardVolumePriceWorkforcecostsUSOObligation!Transactionalvolumedecliningduetoe-diversion!Advertisingmailissubjecttoincreasedsubstitutionoptions!Increasescappedbyinflationclass!Priceelasticitiesareinfluxduetogrowingalternatives!Deliverypoints!Retaillocations!Sortationfacilities!Preferredpricesforsomeproducts(e.g.,non-profitmail)!RHBpre-fundingdrivenbylaw!LegacycostsbeyondUSPScontrol!WagessubjecttocollectivebargainingREVENUETRENDSCOSTTRENDSThesetrendswillcontinuetoputpressureonUSPSabilitytoprovideaffordableuniversalserviceDecliningsteadilyFixedcostbaseRisingcostperhourRisingbutcappedBaseCaseMcKinsey&Company11|04080120160200VolumewilldeclinesignificantlyoverthenextdecadedrivenbyasteadydeclineinFirst-ClassMail,themostprofitablesegmentSOURCE:BCG;USPSFinancialForecastingModelBCGvolumeforecastBillionsofpiecesChangeinvolume2009-2020Portionof