技术风险与对策研究

222Vol.22No.220044SCIENTIFICMANAGEMENTRESEARCHApr.2004技术风险与对策研究郭瑜桥,王树恩,王晓文(天津大学,天津300072):本文首先分析了技术风险的概念和特点及其发生的内在机制和各种模式,并通过探讨如何建立一套有效的技术风险评估体系,提出了技术风险的应对措施,以有效防范或减少技术风险:技术风险;内在机制;发生模式;评估体系;应对措施:F204:A:1004-115X(2004)02-0060-04ResearchonTechnologyRiskandItsCountermeasuresGUOYu-qiao,WANGShu-en,WANGXiao-wen(TianjinUniversity,Tianjin300072)Abstract:Inthispaperweexpoundtheconceptandcharacteristicoftechnologyriskandthenanalyzetheinherentmechanismandsomemodelsofitsoccurrence.Wealsodiscusshowtoestablishasuitofvaluationsystemandbringforwardhowtokeepawayorreducetechnologyriskefficiently.Keywords:technologyrisk;inherentmechanism;modelsofoccurrence;valuationsystem;countermeasures,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,:(1),,,,(2):20040229,,,,(3):,,,(4),(5),,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,(),,,,,,,,,,,:(1);(2);(3);(4),612331,,,,,:,(1),,,;,(2),1(3),,,,,,(/)(4),,,,(5),,,(6),32,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6222,:(1),,(2),,(3),,(4),,,,(5),:1美HW刘易斯著杨健,缪建兴译技术与风险M中国对外翻译出版公司,19942宗明华企业技术风险及其分析J昆明理工大学学报,2001(1)3赵焕臣等层次分析法M北京:科学出版社,19864UNDP2001年人类发展报告:让新技术为人类发展服务R北京:中国财政经济出版社,20015万劲波,魏巧云技术评价技术预见与技术风险的管理J科技导报,2002(12)(上接第23页),,,,,,33,,,,,,,;,,,,,;,,34,,,,,,,,,,,:;;;;:1熊彼特经济发展理论M北京:商务印书馆,19882SchumpeterJ.Thetheoryofeconomicdevelopment.Cambridge(MA):HarvardUniversityPress,1934.3RothwellR,ZegveldW.Industrialinnovationandpublicpolicy:preparingforthe1980sandthe1990s.London:FrancesPrinter,1981.4MaillatD.TheInnovationProcessandtheRoleoftheMilieu,InBorgmanEM,MaterGandTodtlngF(eds)RegionsReconsidered.EconomicNetworks,InnovationandLocalDevelopmentinIndustrializedCountries,103-1175XielinLiu,StevenWhite.Comparinginnovationsystems:aframeworkandapplicationtoChinastransitionalcontextJ.ResearchPolicy,2001,30:1091-11146赵黎明,娄铁辉产业簇群理论对我国高新技术产业开发区建设的启示J高科技与产业化,2001(6):50-53632