货币危机的微观理论及政策建议

X(200433),(19941222),(199772)(1997711)(1997714),,,,,:,,199219931994199590,,,,,,:,(Taylor,1995),,(),(),,,66X19983,,,11,:??90,,,,,90,,,,1119771102090,,,,1995,,,1995190,41120,,,,,,??:;();;;,,,,;,,21125,,,1/D26(),76,,1/D30,1/D30,1/D26,,,4,,1/D25,1/D30,,4(),,,,,,,,(),,,,:11(Krugman,1979),,,,,,,,:,,::,,,,,(DumasandSvensson,1944),2186BlancoGarber(1986),19731982,()Goldberg(1994),Goldberg,:,31X,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),11,,:B,R;F,;(),:,;,(),,,():96X(VonNeumann)(Morgenstern),,,,,()DF(),,(,),,,,(,),,,,X,,,,,,,,,,X,,21:,,,,(),5t,|Xt||5t|(t)P3tt+1P3t+1(1):P3t+1=P3t+jtXtZ(1):j;jt0;Xt;Z=1,|Xt||5t|0,(1)()(1),Xt,t+1,t,t+1,,t31,,W07:E[U(Wt)]=iPiU(Wt)(2),,U(W)=-exp(-rW)(3):r,:E[(U(W))]=-exp{-r[-12r2]}(4)t,t,w,Xt,Bt,t+1:Max{E[-exp(-rtW)]|t}(5)S.tPtXt+Bt=w:W=(Pt+1-RPt)Xt+Rw:R,PtPt+1,w(4),(5):Max{E[(P3t+1-RP3t)|t]Xt-(r2)X2tvar[P3t+1|t]}(6),var(P3t+1|t),,(6):Xti=E(P3t+1|t)-RP3trvar(P3t+1|t)(7)Xitit(7)(7),:11,21,31,(,,(1)),,,,,,,,(),,()17,,t+1E(P3t+1),,t+1,,ABA,(,);B,A,,,,B,,,11,,?,,,,,,,,:,,,,:=f(,,)(8):=f(,,)27(8),,,,,,,(),(),()(),,(),,,(),,,,,,,,,,,:()21,:?,,:=f(,,)(9):=f(,,),,,()(),,:(1);(2),,(),()37:11,,,,,,,(,)21,,,,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,(),,,,19993(WTO),,,,,,,,47,1997:,,,1997:,342,350,354,3621997:,,,199744,1992:,CatberineBonser2Neal,1996,DoesCentralBankInterventionStabilizeForeignExchangeRates?,EconomicReview,Feb.EricM.LeeperandChristopherA.SimsandTaoZha,1996,WhatDoesMonetaryPolicyDo,BrookingPapersonEconomicActivity,Feb.RobertP.FloodandPeterM.,1994,SpeculativeBubbles,SpeculativeAttacks,andPolicySwiching,MITPress,CambridgeandLondon.(:)(:)(65)=(10)=(11):199655,,66,19960144,016,,,1994:,()H.,,1995::,,,1988,1997:,1994:,2,1996:,,1993:,,,1988:,(:)(:)(49)OECD,1983a,PositiveAdjustmentPolicies:ManagingStructuralChange,Paris,OECD.1983b,TransparencyforPositiveAdjustment2IdentifyingandEvaluatingGovernmentIntervention,Paris,OECD.P.GhemawatandB.Nalebuff,1985,Exit,RantJournalofEconomics,16.R.SchmalenseeandR.Willlig(eds),1989,HandBookofIndustrialOrganization,ElsevierSciencePublishers.T.E.Petrietal,1884,NationalIndustrialPolicy:SolutionorIllusion,London,WestviewPress.T.Groves,Y.Hong,J.McMillanandB.Naughton,1993,AutonomyandIncentivesinChineseStateEnterprises,SanDiego,Processed.(:)(:)57