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ATutorialontheDiscountedCashFlowModelforValuationofCompaniesL.PeterJennergren∗Ninthrevision,December13,2011SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1AbstractAllstepsofthediscountedcashflowmodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculationoffreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(incomestate-mentsandbalancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.Thereisparticularemphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoproperty,plant,andequipment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay),asanillustration.Anumberofothervaluationmodels(discounteddivi-dends,adjustedpresentvalue,economicvalueadded,andabnormalearnings)arealsodiscussed.Earlierversionsofthisworkingpaperwereentitled“ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompanies”.Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdataJELclassification:G31,M41,C60∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.TheauthorisindebtedtoTomasHjelstr¨om,JoakimLevin,PerOlsson,KenthSkogsvik,andIgnacioVelez-Parejafordiscus-sionsandcomments.Also,theauthorthankstheTorstenandRagnarS¨oderbergFoundationsandF¨ors¨akringsbolagetPensionsgarantiforeconomicsupport.11IntroductionThistutorialexplainsallthestepsofthediscountedcashflowmodel,prominentlyfeaturedinabookbyanauthorteamfromMcKinsey&Company(TimKoller,MarcGoedhart,andDavidWessels:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompa-nies,5thed.2010).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimplestructure.Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.1TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(concerningatruckingcompany)inthefirsttwoeditionsofValuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(Copelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994).How-ever,certainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.Inparticular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,noconvertiblebonds,etc.).Also,McKayhasnooperatingleasesorcapitalizedpensionliabilities.2McKayisasingle-divisioncompanyandhasnoforeignoperations(andcon-sequentlytherearenotranslationdifferences).Thereisnogoodwillandnominorityinterest.ThepurposeoftheMcKayexampleismerelytopresentallessentialaspectsofthediscountedcashflowmodelassimplyaspossible.SomeofthehistoricalincomestatementandbalancesheetdatahavebeentakenfromthePrestonexample.However,theforecastedincomestatementsandbalancesheetsaretotallydifferentfromPreston’s.Allmonetaryunitsareunspecifiedinthistutorial(inthePrestonexampleinCopelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994,theyaremillionsofUSdollars).Thistutorialisintendedasaguidedtourthroughoneparticularimplementationofthediscountedcashflowmodelandshouldthereforebeviewedonlyasexemplifying:Thisisonewaytosetupavaluationmodel.Somemodellingchoicesthathavebeenmadewillbepointedoutlateron.However,itshouldbenotedrightawaythatthespecification1Earlierversionsofthistutorialwereentitled“ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompanies”,sincetheyfocusedontheMcKinseyimplementationofthediscountedcashflowmodel.However,afterseveralrevisionsoftheMcKinseybookaswellasofthistutorial,therearenowsomedifferencesinemphasisandapproachbetweenthetwo,motivatingthetitlechange,startingfromthesixthrevisionofthistutorialin2006.ThemostimportantchangeintheninthrevisionofthistutorialisthatAppendices1and2havebeendeleted.ThepreviousAppendix1containedatableofestimatedvaluesofn(PPEeconomiclife)andK(capitalintensity),basedonadatabasefromStatisticsSweden.Thisdatabaseisbynowquiteold.Also,thesametablehasbeenpublishedelsewhere(Jennergren2008,p.1555).ThepreviousAppendix2discussedtheMcKinseyauthorteam’svaluedriverformula.Anextendedversionofthisdiscussionisnowcontainedinaseparateworkingpaper,Jennergren2011b.2Onthetreatmentofoperatingleasesinconnectionwithvaluation,seeJennergren2011a.PensioncontributionsinMcKaymaybethoughtofaspaidouttoanoutsidepensionfundconcurrentlywiththesalariesgeneratingthosecontributions,sonopensiondebtremainsonthecompany’sbooks.2givenbelowofnetproperty,plant,andequipment(PPE)asdrivenbyrevenuesagreeswithKolleretal.2010.ThefirsttwoeditionsofValuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompaniescontaintwoalternativemodelspecificationsrelatingtoinvestmentinPPE(cf.LevinandOlsson1995).Inthefollowingrespect,thistutorialisanextensionofKolleretal.2010:Itcontainsamoredetaileddiscussionofcapitalexpenditures,i.e.,themechanismwherebycashisabsorbedbyinvestmentsinPPE.Thismechanismcentersontwoparticularforecastassumptions,[thisyear’snetPPE/revenues]and[depreciation/lastyear’snetPPE].3Itisexplainedbelowhowthoseassumptionscanbespecifiedconsistently.Onarelatednote,thetreatmentofdeferredincometaxesissomewhatdifferent,andalsomoredetailed,comparedtoKolleretal.2010.Inparticular,deferredincometaxesarerelatedtoaforecastratio[timingdifferences/thisyear’snetPPE],anditissuggestedhowtosetthatratio.Thereisalsoanotherextensioninthistutorial:Alternativevaluationmodelsarediscussed,infact,fivedifferentmodels.TheMcKayvaluationissetupasaspreadsheetfileinExcelnamedMC
本文标题:麦肯锡公司价值评估方法详解和案例2011
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