关于大型社会项目管理的系统思考

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(100080)(100016)--,,,--170,(AmericanEvaluationAssociation),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,199857©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3--311--,,,,(MEDPlan),,,,21998©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:1--,,,,,,312--31211,,C1C2C3C4C5(),1:1333333C1a(1)11a11(2)a(1)12a12(2)a(1)1na1n(2)C5a(1)51a51(2)a(1)52a52(2)a(1)5na5n(2):Ci-iaij(1)-ijaij(2)-ijjj,,;,,;,;,,1,134:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,,,(Quasi-ExperimentalDesigns)1,,D1D2D3D4D5,C1C2C3C4C5,,,,,22C1C5t1t2tnt1t2tnt1t2tnt1t2tnt1t2tn1a11a12a1na11a12a1na11a12a1na11a12a1ns11s12s1n2a21a22a2na21a22a2na21a22a2na21a22a2ns21s22s2nØØØØØØØØØØØØØØØØnan1an2annan1an2annan1an2annan1an2annsn1sn2snn,,,,,2,,2bijaij33Ct1t2tnDt1t2tn1a11a12a1nb11b12b1n2a21a22a2nb21b22b2nØØØØØØØnan1an2annbn1bn2bnn41998©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:4Ct1t2tn1e11e12e1n2e21e22e2nØØØØØnen1en2enn:eij=aij-bij4,5,6,5:5C1C2C3C4C5D1D2D3D4D5b1b2b3b4b5b1b2b3b4b5,,6:6C1C2C3C4C5D1D2D3D4D5018501740163018701660142015101640157015067:7123456789100163016601740185018701420150015101570164n1=5,n2=5,()(12346),T,:T=1+2+3+4+6=16n1=5,n2=5,=5%,:54:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(215%)=18T2(215%)=37T1T2,T,T1TT2,5%,,:T=16T1(215%)=18,,,31213,,,,,,,,5(1),,,,,,,,,(2),,,NnC1,C2,C3,C4,C5,D1,D2,D3,D4,D5A1A2A3A10,NNi:Ni=[Ai]+1(I=1,2,,10)N=N1+N2++N10N,n,95%,V,S,:n=[s2/1+s2/]+1n,,ni(ni1)ni=[nNNi]+1[](3),,61998©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(4),,,,4,,,,--,:411,,,412,,,,;,,;,,,,,,413,,,,25,,,,,,74:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:AHand2bookforPolicymakers,Managers,andResearchers,EDIDEVELOPMENTSTUDIES,November19942J.F.GuandZ.C.Zhu,TheWu-liShi-liRen-liApproach(WSR):AnOrientalMethodology,inSys2temsMethodology:PossibilitiesforCross-CulturalLearningandIntegration9(G.MidgleyandJ.Wilbyeds.),TheUniversityofHullPress,UnitedKingdom,1995,pp31-403..--.,1998(8):1-54..--.,1998(9):37-415...,,199626A.M.Mood&F.A.Grybill,IntroductiontotheTheoryofStatistics,2nded.McGraw-HillBookCompa2ny,INC.1963SystemsThinkingontheManagementofLargeScaleSocialProjectGuJifaGaoFei(InstituteofSystemsScience,CAS)WuBin(BeijingZhongshanJPInvestmentConsultativeLimitedCompany)AbstractByusingWuli-Shili-Renlisystemsapproach,combiningwiththemonitory,evaluationandmanage2mentexperienceofWorldBankandUSonsocialproject,amodelofmanagementonlargescalesocialprojectconcerningthelabormarketinourcountryisdiscussedinthispaper.KeywordsSocialproject,monitory,evaluation,management,Wuli-Shili-Renlisystemsapproach81998