基于关键链的污水处理BOT项目进度管理研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文基于关键链的污水处理BOT项目进度管理研究姓名：汪林申请学位级别：硕士专业：项目管理指导教师：许淑君;周克梅20071201IBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTCPM/PERTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTIIBOTBOTBOTCCPMCCPMBOTABSTRACTIIISTUDYONWASTEWATERTREATMENTBOTSCHEDULECONTROLBASEDONCRITICALCHAINABSTRACTChinaisacountrywithverylimitedwaterresourcesintermsofitslargepopulation.Inthe21stcentury,theproblemofwatershortagewillbecomeevenmoreseriouswithincreasingpopulationgrowthandsocialdevelopment.Wastewatertreatment,therefore,becomesamostimportantissue.Inthepastdecade,wastewatertreatmenthasbeendevelopingatafastspeed.However,atpresent,thegovernmentcouldn’tinvestmuchmoneyinthewastewaterindustryasinthepast.Therefore,thereisabiggapforcapitalinvestmentforthebuildingandoperationofWWTP(wastewatertreatmentplants).Underthecircumstances,BOTcomesoutasgoodsolution.However,littleresearchhasbeenconductedonthetheoriesandpracticesofwastewatertreatmentplantBOTprojectcontrolinChina.Therefore,in-depthresearchonthetheoriesandpracticeshasbecomeanurgentissueinwastewaterdevelopment.TheresearcherfirstintroducedthegeneralsituationaboutwastewaterindustriesinChina.ThetheoriesincurrentpracticearemainlyCPM(CriticalPathMethod)andPERT(ProgramEvaluation&ReviewTechniques).ProblemsofapplyingthesetheoriesinpracticeofWWTPwerenotedandanalyzed.Delayingofprojectaccomplishment,forexample,iscausedbecauseanumberofunknownfactorsaffectingtheprojectarenotundercontrol.Anewtheory,therefore,wasproposedtoreplacethetwotheories--CCPM(CriticalChainprojectmanagement).ThenewtheoryisbasedonTOC(TheoryofConstraints).Byusingprojectbuffer,feedingbuffer,andresourcebuffer,andsettingupprecautionmechanism,CCPMmanagestocontroltheseunknownfactorswhichtheformertwotheories,CPMandPERT,failtomonitor.Therefore,theapplicationofCCPMleadstoWWTPprojectsuccess.TheresearchertookthewastewaterprojectofLingangNewCity,Shanghai,forexample,analyzedthereasonsofitsfailureinusingCPMonitsABSTRACTIVprojectmanagement,andwentfurthertoproposethatthenewapplicationofCCPMmayleadtoitssuccess.Detailedanalysiswasprovided.Theresearch,thoughwithmuchdeficiencyduetolimitedtimeandresourcesoftheresearcher,issupposedtoprovidesomeusefulguidanceforfuturewastewaterBOTprojectsinChina.KEYWORDS:schedulecontrol,theoryofconstraints,criticalchain,wastewatertreatment,BOT636411.120042040136004003016002001000230021201064,006,67066,336,988137,318203070,008,00020003321890%50%2121.1.1[2005]14920046617084912m3/d2000162.8m320004345.7200563129763508“”5413750“”650066002100[1]1.1.2BOT1993BOTBuild-Operate-Transfer--BBOTBOTBOT1994BOT1995116BOT821BOTBOT1997BOT3BBOTBOT[2]1998BOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOT[3]1.1.3BOTBOTBOT1.21.2.1BOTBOT;1BOT4BOTBuild-Operate-Transfer--BOT1994BOTBOTBOOT(Build-Own-Operate-Transfer---)BOO(Build-Own-Operate--)BOT[4]2BOTBOTBoehn1991[5]KliemLudin1997[6]BOTBOTBOTBOT[7]RobertL.K.BOT[8]RobertBOTBOTBOT[9]M.M.KumaraswamyBOT[10]1.2.2BOTBOT1994BOT19941995BOTBOT1996BOT5BOTBOTBOTBOT1BOTBOT[11]BOT[12]BOT——[13]BOT()BOT[14]BOT[15]2BOTBOTAHPBOTBOT[16.17]BOT[18]BOTBOT[19]BOT[20]3BOT6BOTBOTBOTBOT[21]BOT[22]4BOTBOT[23][24]BOT[25]BOTBOTBOT1.2.3[26][27]20007[28][29]1.2.4[30]1()(TimeCostTrade-off)1982TalbotKellyMeyer1987TeicholzHendrickson2PERTCPM1962BurgessLevyeta11978Harris1990Martinaz1993Loannou3CPMPERT1964Wiest1973Davis1991GavishPirkul2000Maciey2002Rauiaine81.2.51TOCCCM[31]2PERTTheoryofConstraint(TOC)PERT[32](CriticalchainschedulingCCS)(Feedingbuffer)[33][34][35]3ERPERP[36][37]TOC(TOC)[38]1.2.6BOTBOT9CPM/PERTBOT1.32001BOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTCCPMBOTBOTBOT101.41.5BOTBOTBOT1BOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTCPM/PERTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOT11BOTBOTBOTBOT1fig1FlowchartofthepresentresearchBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOT12BOT2.1150601921192635270801982198442826m3/d60BOT1332040m3/d2.2BOT[39]1209023BOTBuild-Operate-Transfer--BOTBOT14BOT100200420058BOT20032[39]02040608010012020012002200320042005BOT12BOTfig2TrendofBOTprojectsinwastewatertreatmentinChina2.3BOT2.3.1BOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOT1BOT1523BOTBOT123456BOTBOTBOTTOT2.3.2BOTBOTBOTBOT11BOTBOT1624-6BOT3BOT4BOTBOT2BOTBOT172.4BOTBOTBOT1BOTBOTBOT+[4041][40]BOT[42]BOT2BOT51-60BOT7-20[43]BOT32000BOTBOTBOTBOT[44]4BOT181(time-cost)Bromilow370[45]T=KCb3-1TCK100bKakaandPrice1984-1989[46]KumaraswamyChan[47]BOTBOT2BOTBOTBOTBOT[48]BOTBOTBOT19BOT[36]BOT20BOT[49][50]BOT3.1[51][52]1Henry.L.Gantt1917BOT2123[53]1CPMPERTGERTDCPMVERTCPMPERTCPMPERT2050BOT223.23.3.12050CPM/PERT[54][55]1234CPM/PERT3.3.21Battaineh1996-199916428160.5%120.3%[56]445%[57]2[58.59]Mansfield[60]Assafet[61]BOT23Al.Momani1990-1997130[62]1097[63]?3.4BOTCPM/PERTCPM/PERT[64]BOT3.4.11[65]3(90)50350%90%50%2BOT2490%3fig3Timedistributionofprocedure25135+5=13WBS3.4.2BOT100%1(Studentssyndrome)[66]90%BOT25[67]“”——2/31/31/32/32(Parkinson'slaw)[66]——104ABABOT264fig4Sequeneofprocedures3.4.3BOT5AB5C5D5ABC5fig5Parallelofprocedures3.4.41ABCABC361530BBACD055ABOT27BOT[68]6fig6Sequenceofinfluencewithmutli-tasks2[69]7142A4241AABCABC303030BOT287Fig7Cascadeeffectofmulti-tasks3.5BOTBOTBOTBOTCPM/PERTBOTCPM/PERT1CPMBOTCPMCPMBOTCPM1A3C2B4A5D1E3F2A4G5H1A1ABOT29CPMBOT2CPM/PERTPERTBOTPERTPERTBOT“”PERT3BOTCPMBOTCPCPMCPMCPPERTCPCPMBOTCP4BOTCPM/PERTCPMBOTBOT30BOTBOTBOT31BOT4.1(TheoryofCon