基于公私合作模式的公用事业项目风险研究

湖南大学硕士学位论文基于公私合作模式的公用事业项目风险研究姓名：吴娟申请学位级别：硕士专业：技术经济与管理指导教师：单汨源2004101080PPPPublicPrivatePartnerships(O&M)BOO/BOTPPP:PPPPPPPPP----PPPDelphiCRPPPPPPPPP-I-AbstractChinahasbeingreformedtheinfrastructuresince1980s,fromreformingthemodernmanagementsystemofenterprisesthatofferpublicproductsandservicetothepricingsystemandqualitycriterionofpublicproductsandservice;fromintroducingtothecompetitionmechanismofthemarkettoencouragingprivate’scapitalparticipatein;fromthegovernmentsupplyingtosupervising;Chinakeepsexploringthebestwayofthereformofpublicutilitiestoimprovethequalityofpublicproductsandtheservice,andtosatisfymasses'demandsforpublicutilities.ThemodelofPublicPrivatePartnerships,thatisPPP(PublicPrivatePartnerships)modelisthemostpopularmodelofpublicutilitiesreformingnow.Itscharacteristicistheprivatedepartmentispublicserviceandprovideroftheproducts,andthepublicdepartmentispurchaserandsupervisor.Itswayincludes:OperateandMaintain(O&M),TheAgreementofManagement,LeaseBuying,BOO/BOT,Franchise,non-publicorganizationetc.BasedonanalysingthecharacteristicsofthepublicutilitiesprojectandthemodeofPublicPrivatePartnerships(PPP),thispaperhasanalysedthecharacteristicoftheprojectriskidentificationofpublicutilitiesbasedonPPP,hasidentifiedtheprojectriskfactorofpublicutilitiesbasedonPPP,includingenvironmentalrisk,financialrisks,technologicalrisk,marketrisk,managementriskandforcemajeurerisk,however,whenrealizationwayofPPPchanges,theriskfactorfacedincooperationwillchange;Firstly,byanalyzingtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheAnalyticHiberarchyProcess,whichisthemethodofprojectriskassessment,thispapersupposedtheAnalyticHiberarchyGroupProcesstoassesstheprojectriskofpublicutilitiesbasedonPPP;Secondly,thispaperdevelopedaprogramofAHPincomputerlanguage---Delphitoexamintheconsistencyofjudgingmatrix,andcomputedthevalueofCR.Thirdly,supposedanallocationofriskswassupposedaftersummarytheexperiencesofdomesticandinternational’spublicutilitiesprojectbasedonPPP.Inadditionwecanthroughincreaseprojectriskmanagerialability,meritofprojectmanager,reduceorremittheriskfactortoo.-II-Finaly,theChangshasewagedisposalprojectastheusingesampletovalidatetherealisticmeaningsoftheresearchandtheorymethodinthispaper.Keywords:Publicutility,PublicPrivateParternship,RiskIdentification,RiskAssessment,AnalyticHiberarchyGroupProcess(AHGP)-III-1______21.1(PPP)12.1172.2193.1353.2365.145-IV-1.121.251.3111.4121.5131.6142.1232.2BOT252.3BOT253.1354.1415.1455.2AB465.3B1U465.4B2U475.5B3U475.6B4U475.7B5U475.8B6U485.9U485.10495.11495.12U495.13U505.14515.15A-B515.16B1-U515.17B2-U515.18B3-U52-V-5.19B4-U525.20B5-U525.21B6-U525.22U*535.23µ53-VI-11.11.1.11PPPPublicPrivatePartnerships[1]PPP1997590PPPPPP2.PPP1.1PPP1.1PPP[2]1.1.2PPP1.1-1-PPPPPP[3]1.1PPPLBOLeaseBuildOperateBOT(BuildOperateTransfer)BBO(BuyBuildOperate)LBOBTOBOTBOOBBO1.1PPP[3]12OperationsandMaintenanceContractorLeaseO&M[4]3Lease-Build-Operate,LBO8599[5]4Build-Operate-Transfer,BOT-2-BOOTBOT19841984BOT5Buy-Build-Operate,BBO1.1.3PPPPPP[6]PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP-3-PPPPPP1.2[04JJ6037]PPP1PPP2PPP1.2.11.2.1.1(1)GDP110.3%0.8%0.5%1.7%HarinderKohli1995200474402000141030201010618001/619982785010500[8]2010(2)20-4-1.21.2[9]1998%3.88.061317.7425.318.811.640.422.2131.210.6980.41100100/2m/d//%%/2m199820028.0518.2618.419.518.217.219.6826.319.3383.438.69.1415.3114.613.5330.7151214206265320245400~600340~500290~3003202.4229.56399590959328.288.7891.59885~100(3)2090201.2.1.2PPPPPPPPP-5-PPPPPPPPPPPP2002BOT20200463061.2.1.3PPP80-6-1984BOTBB21PPPPPP1.2.2PPP1.31.3.11.3.1.11.[7]-7-(1)(2)(3)-8-2.(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)-9-3.PPPF.1969[10]E.S.Savas[11]80AdamSmithInstitute7019791992PFI(PrivateFinancingInitiative)19975PPPPPPPPPPPP2002500PPP15%PPP130010001180[12]80-10-19781.3.1.21[13]2199210000250004935150431%[14]1.390%53%1.3[14]90%/53%23%23%20%18%8%7%1997[15](1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)-11-(7)3[16]PPP1.4[17]2003M.A.Massoud,M.Ei-FadelPPPPPP[18]1.422122123124132413244119991998202120022003-12-PPPPPPO&MBOO/BOTPPP,[6]PPPBOTPPP1.3.21.20(1.5)1990(1.6)19901980212000200184-13-1.5[19]19311949HenriFayol1950(Mowbray)1960ASIM1961ASIM19631975ASIMRIMS1983RIMS10119921.61991RHPike[20]351994SteveJSimister[21]37PRAM1995RoozbehKangari[22]100121996FrancisHartman[23]1997LYShen[24]3001997,AkintolaSakintoya[25]1001997VMRaoTummala[26]1201999GaryR.Smith[27]121999Libing[28]3252000TRaz[29]4002001LYShen[30]185PRAM-14-2.PPPPeterMolesGeoffreyWilliamsSkyeBridge[31]JonathanP.DohRaviRamamurti//[32]PPPPatrickTILamBOT[33]DarrinGrimseyMervynK.LewisPPP/NPVIRRMonaCarlo/[34]DarrinMervynPPPMonaCarloPPPPPP2003PPP-15-1.41.4.1(1)PPPPPP(2)BOT(3)(4)PPPPPP(5)PPPBOTPPPPPP-16-1.4.2PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP-17-22.12.1.1-[35]2.1-18-2.1TMWilliams[36][37]PRR-ProjectRiskRegister(1)(2)(3)(4)(1)(2)2.1.21.2.22.SWOT-19-WBS///SWTO/////WBS//2.2[38]2.22.2.1(1)-20-(2)(3)2.2.21(1)-21-(2)(3)2(1)(2)(3)-22-(4)(5)3(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)-23-(6)2.12.32.3.1PPPBOTBLOBOOPPPPPPPPP-24-2.3.2PPPPPPPPP2.1B1U1U2U3U4B2U5U6U7B3U8U9U10U11U12B4B5U19U20U21U22B6U23U24U13U14U15U16U17U181BOO2.2.2.BOTBOT-25-2.1BOT2.2BOTB1U1U2U3U4B2U5U6U7B3U8U9U10U11U12B4B5U19U20U21U22B6U23U24U13U14U15U1