01基于战略的报表分析新思维-报表分析的逻辑切入点-120

2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1厦门国家会计学院财务报表分析新思维财务报表分析的逻辑切入点徐国栋Tel：13656036281QQ：1103810430email：[e-mail]办公室：经A5412019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2——相关参考书隆重推荐：《财务报表分析：理论·框架·方法与案例》主编：黄世忠（国家会计学院副院长），中国财经出版社2007年版，系列丛书：国家会计学院会计硕士专业学位（MPAcc）系列教材2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute3三大逻辑切入点盈利质量资产质量现金流量收入质量利润质量毛利率高低成长性退出壁垒潜在损失经营现金流量自由现金流量波动性资产结构现金含量”造血“功能还本付息研发营销报表分析三大逻辑切入点2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute4阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点案例：——M公司与GFC公司哪个更有竞争优势？本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系研讨要点与目的2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute5股票市场表现2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute62541709291493129369463361127418573850500100015002000250030003500200220032006.12.312007.12.312008.11.7MGFC股票市值(Capitalization)2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute7四大核心问题问题1做大=做强？？问题2M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题3M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题4如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute84.8109.15.1103.35.5101.55.7103.46.1104.17.191.37.978.40204060801001202001200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司经营规模--雇员人数2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute96768832796977794310266708989969671566146253020004000600080001000012000200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司经营规模--资产总额2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute102845236322521636855743985471443567551157630100020003000400050006000200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司经营规模—销售收入2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute11520145486158411146434166-182144140155-200-1000100200300400500600200220032004200520062007GFC公司M公司经营规模—CFFOA(现金流量)2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute122541709291493129369463361127418573850500100015002000250030003500200220032006.12.312007.12.312008.11.7MGFC股票市值(Capitalization)2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute135405326108047488614817284013613112210100200300400500600700800900200220032004200520062007M公司GFC公司财务实力—净资产2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute146278491009782-53122-103126-354141-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50050100150200220032004200520062007GFC公司M公司经营绩效—净利润2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute15财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002)项目名称GFC公司M公司倍数GFC合计M雇员人数36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45资产总额3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11销售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44现金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股东权益68564085325400.99净利润17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新经济与旧经济的反差行业层面的解释——市盈率分析2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute16盈利质量现金流量资产质量财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute17三大逻辑切入点盈利质量资产质量现金流量收入质量利润质量毛利率高低成长性退出壁垒潜在损失经营现金流量自由现金流量波动性资产结构现金含量”造血“功能还本付息研发营销报表分析三大逻辑切入点2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute18盈利质量收入质量利润质量毛利率成长性波动性研发营销盈利质量分析方法2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute19收入质量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)19991971690160114822000230173916981603200125316911609154020022841773162314742003322185516421364200436819351709142120053981926177114982006443207316011516200751118811725152620086042019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute200501001502002503003501999200020012002200320042005200620072008GFDM收入质量(QualityofRevenue)2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute21利润质量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-254020081772019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute22-400-300-200-10001002003001999200020012002200320042005200620072008GFCM利润质量(QualityofProfit)2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute23RivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004Burst.com$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement反垄断诉讼费用(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute24项目名称GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005销售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽车1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83净利润27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽车-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a经营业绩:2005vs.20042019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute252006:艰难的转折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$872019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute26毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)会计年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%200880.8%2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute27M公司的成本费用结构35444952435461607667788362628777669810771115116821300%20%40%60%80%100%20012002200320042005200620072008COSR&DS&A3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute28R&D占销售收入比重17.31%3.89%15.18%4.43%20.49%4.04%21.12%3.98%15.54%3.77%14.87%3.31%13.93%3.48%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%2001200220032004200520062007MicrosoftDaimler2006年2248家企业集团R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%2019/9/8XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute29成本结构与风险传导资产质量资产结构现金含量退出壁垒经营风险财务弹性潜在损失资产质量分析方法技术风险2019