赛迪顾问：中国IT与消费电子市场趋势展望

中国IT与消费电子市场趋势展望赛迪顾问股份有限公司马翚TendencyofChinaIT&CEMarketCCIDConsulting报告内容市场现状市场预测产业趋势赛迪建议CCIDConsulting市场回顾MarketReviewCCIDConsulting0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.00.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%Hardware1,250.71,425.51,584.1Software230.00285.00344.96Service259.80323.10429.30GR(HW)22.6%14.0%11.1%GR(SW)30.7%23.9%21.0%GR(SEV)34.2%24.4%32.9%200020012002日趋平稳的中国IT市场25.2%16.8%16.0%100MRMBCCIDConsulting0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.00.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%02H1Rev.672.4148.6176.403H1Rev.710.6161.6200.4GrowtRate5.7%8.8%13.6%HardwareSoftwareServiceTotalRevenue:1072.7YiRMB100MRMBGrowthRate:7.5%SARS导致市场增长放缓(2003H1)CCIDConsulting453.712.248.61.070.570.877.9%14.2%39.2%10.0%5.6%5.5%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0500.0台式PCPC服务器笔记本电脑RISC服务器Unix工作站NT工作站0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%20022003GrowthRate2003H1中国主机产品市场(出货量)TotalOfUnits:517,GR:10.4%10KUnitsCCIDConsulting2003H1中国主机产品市场(销售收入)Product2002H12003H1GR(02-03)台式PC279.0287.33.0%PC服务器29.3029.701.4%笔记本电脑55.1069.0725.4%RISC服务器30.2831.614.4%Unix工作站8.38.52.9%NT工作站2.392.588.0%总计404.3428.76.0%100MRMBCCIDConsulting78.15.63.312.48.611.243.7-5.1%-9.6%3.4%-2.9%3.8%85.6%-1.4%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0显示器打印机多功能一体机投影机扫描仪UPS磁盘存储系统-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%03H1Rev.02-03GR2003H1中国主要外设产品市场100MRMBCCIDConsulting产品ShipmentsRevenueGR(Units)GR(Revenue)手机2,890.3486.8-0.7%-2.1%PDA69.512.4-21.6%-26.2%闪存盘211.63.7112.2%48.0%移动硬盘19.72.536.9%1.2%数码相机38.510.587.1%45.4%MP3播放机53.25.8247.7%166.8%DVD影碟机675.251.658.8%0.6%彩色电视机1,605.0299.05.7%8.7%2003H1中国主要消费电子产品市场出货量：万台；销售收入：亿元人民币CCIDConsulting2003H1中国网络产品市场1.626.422.02.41.762.17.50.515.0%3.9%13.8%179.6%237.3%-33.9%1.1%5.5%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0Modem集线器交换机路由器网卡ADSLWLAN总计-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%03H1Rev.02-03GR100MRMBShare:77.8%Share:12.1%CCIDConsulting42.4107.811.4161.62.5%11.7%6.4%8.8%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0平台软件应用软件中间软件总计0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%02H1Rev.03H1Rev.GR(02-03)100MRMB2003H1中国软件市场7.1%66.7%26.2%MiddlePlatformAPP.MarketShareCategoriesCCIDConsulting2.33.54.252.1443.8%52.2%21.4%12.6%30.7%23.9%8.8%21.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2000年2001年2002年2003上半年012345中间件销售额（亿元）中间件增长率软件增长率中间件软件市场规模与增长CCIDConsulting2003H1中间件软件平行市场结构邮政交通能源流通媒介科研教育政府电信医疗制造金融-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.0200040006000800028.4%CCIDConsulting72.158.370.0200.40.2%-4.5%61.4%13.6%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0专业服务支持与维护网络服务总计-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%03H1Rev.GR(02-03)网络服务34.9%专业服务36.0%支持与维护29.1%ITServices2003H1中国信息服务市场100MRMBCCIDConsulting8.77.338.817.3-13.9%5.2%-3.2%16.4%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0IT教育与培训IT咨询系统集成运营管理-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%03H1Rev.GR(02-03)9.6%10.1%55.7%53.9%14.0%12.1%20.6%24.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20022003IT咨询系统集成IT教育与培训运营管理03H1Rev.=72.1亿元人民币2003H1中国专业服务市场100MRMBCCIDConsulting231.7247.8199.5116.976.2109.491.22.1%3.7%10.5%14.6%8.9%9.8%11.5%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0华北华东华南西南西北华中东北0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%2003H1Rev.02-03GR100MRMB2003H1中国区域市场变化CCIDConsulting83.7349.7150.2363.6125.53.1%10.8%9.1%5.7%13.4%050100150200250300350400Gov.Edu.LBSMBHome0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%03Rev.02-03GR11.9%11.7%7.4%7.8%34.0%32.6%32.9%33.9%13.8%14.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20022003Gov.Edu.LBSMBHome2003H1中国垂直市场状况CCIDConsulting邮政交通能源流通媒介科研教育政府电信制造医疗建筑金融其它-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0平均规模：76.8亿元增长速度：7.5%03H1市场规模，亿元人民币02-03H1增长率2003H1中国行业IT投资状况CCIDConsulting市场预测MarketForecastCCIDConsulting2,644.53,131.43,785.64,495.85,234.9Total100MRMB永不停顿的中国IT市场(2003-2007)0.01,000.02,000.03,000.04,000.05,000.06,000.0ITService510.0640.0825.21,035.01,265.0Software395.5486.8605.2745.2900.0Hardware1,739.02,004.62,355.22,715.63,069.92003年2004年2005年2006年2007年CCIDConsulting应用加速的中国IT市场(2003-2007)65.8%64.0%62.2%60.4%58.6%15.0%15.5%16.0%16.6%17.2%19.3%20.4%21.8%23.0%24.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年HardwareSoftwareITServiceCCIDConsultingNetworksApp.&OthersPeripheralsComputerSystemITServiceSoftware0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.0Avg.Scale：872.503-07CAGR：17.4%03-07CAGRMarketScale100MRMB(900,21.1%)(305,17.8%)(490.2,15.1%)(500.8,9.4%)(1773.9,14.8%)(1265,24.1%)2007年细分市场规模与增长CCIDConsulting165.0227.5298.5387.2481.4648.9744.2844.9944.51018.267.680.296.9115.4135.00.0300.0600.0900.01200.01500.01800.02003年2004年2005年2006年2007年NotebookDesktopServerNotebook115.0170.0235.0320.0415.0Desktop1030.01220.01420.01620.01780.0Server27.633.741.650.660.0Total1172.61423.71696.61990.62255.0ShipmentsCAGR=16.0%Revenue,CAGR=17.4%10KUnits100MRMB中国PC市场增长预测(2003-2007)CCIDConsultingYear20032007CAGR(03-07)MobilePhone1076.71101.50.4%PDAProfessional6.4618.7232.6%Wireless31.49244.3874.4%Information8.768.78-4.5%StorageFlash14.6124.9827.0%MobileHD9.3530.9039.8%DigtalCameral31.185.536.3%MP311.4556.9653.2%中国消费电子产品增长预测(2003-2007)100MRMBCCIDConsulting441.7245.6270.224.756.6-3.7%115.9%-14.0%75.3%8.6%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.