减少黑炭或许是减缓气候变化的最迅捷策略

IGSD/INECE:20088291230.3W/m2+0.2549W/m2155%,,,560°C785091020070.2W/m20.1W/m211121314MarkJacobson151617V.RamanathanG.Carmichael180.9W/m255%,,,190.20.6W/m21.66W/m20.48W/m220(2)21Jacobson40%221230.35°C242044701001,055-2,24025202,530100840-1,28026A1B,2728Figure129-1.5-1-0.500.511.52________+____________________1750________(°C)____1750ArcticSea-Ice303132CharlesZender331.0W/m2”3435JamesHansenLarissaNazarenko36370.5°C38394041420.6°C4319501°C444546504721%6.1%482015202049IMO5051525325-35%5420002006555657-;583059Ramanathan20%40%40%60-TamiBond6142%()18%14%10%10%6.0%6263646566JohannesLehmann676812%690.66GtCO2-eq.,CO2-eq2%70717273Ramanathan50574Jacobson75Hansen76Jacobson160Gg24%(1.5%)26%5.5%77Jacobson1.63GtCO2–eq.7879DOCs3025-50%80DPFs90%81ULSD2001202070%822001202042%83239,000848540-70%8687%CO2-eq30%88CO2-eq20%8990133,00091120,00092Ramanathan9370-80%20-40%949596••2012•••.••••••.97•••98••••99:(W/m2)100101IPCC(2007)1020.2+0.15--0.1+0.10.3+0.25Jacobson(2001,2004,2006)0.55103-0.031040.061050.64106Hansen(2001,2002,2003,2005,2007)0.2-0.61070.3+0.31080.1+0.051090.2+0.11100.8+0.4(2001)1.0+0.5(2002)≈0.7+0.2(2003)0.8(2005)111~0.3Hansen&Nazarenko(2004)112---1.0113-Ramanathan(2007)1140.9--0.1to0.31.0to1.2II:(W/m2)IPCC(2007)115Hansen(2005)1161.661.500.05-0.550.80.480.550.350.400.340.300.160.151MarkJacobson,ControlofFossil-FuelParticulateBlackCarbonandOrganicMatter,PossiblytheMostEffectiveMethodofSlowingGlobalWarming,107J.GEOPHYS.RES.D19(2002).2TimothyLenton,HermannHeld,ElmarKriegler,JimHall,WolfgangLucht,StefanRahmstorf,andHansJoachimSchellnhuber,TippingelementsintheEarth’sclimatesystem,105PROC.OFTHENAT’LACAD.OFSCI.U.S.A.6(2008212)()JamesHansen,Scientificreticenceandsealevelrise,ENVIRON.RES.LETT.2(2007);JamesHansen,ClimateCatastrophe,NEWSCIENTIST(2007728);CommitteeonAbruptClimateChange,AbruptClimateChange:InevitableSurprises,NationalAcademyPress,Washington,D.C.,2003();PeterSchwartz&DougRandall,AnAbruptClimateChangeScenarioandItsImplicationsforUnitedStatesNationalSecurity(2003)=26231;andChrisAbbott,PaulRogers,andJohnSlobada,GlobalResponsestoGlobalThreats:SustainableSecurityforthe21stCentury,OxfordResearchGroup,June2006,:WhereShouldHumanityAim?,at11(18June2008)(“385ppm350ppm”)()4IPCC,ChangesinAtmosphericConstituentsandinRadiativeForcing,inCLIMATECHANGE2007:THEPHYSICALSCIENCEBASIS.CONTRIBUTIONOFWORKINGGROUPITOTHEFOURTHASSESSMENTREPORTOFTHEINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGE129,132(2007),()5V.RamanathanandG.Carmichael,Globalandregionalclimatechangesduetoblackcarbon,1NATUREGEOSCIENCE221-22(2008323)(“0.9Wm–2(0.4-1.2Wm–2)…55%,,”)6.221224.7CharlesZender,1(20071018),[Zender].8Zender,.6()9V.Ramanathan,,4(20071018),=1550[Ramanathan](505)Bond,T.C.,E.Bhardwaj,R.Dong,R.Jogani,S.Jung,C.Roden,D.G.Streets,andN.M.TrautmannHistoricalemissionsofblackandorganiccarbonaerosolfromenergy-relatedcombustion,1850–2000,21GLOBALBIOGEOCHEMICALCYCLESGB2018(2007)(1950-20001950-2000)10Bond,911IPCC,ChangesinAtmosphericConstituentsandinRadiativeForcing,inCLIMATECHANGE2007:THEPHYSICALSCIENCEBASIS.CONTRIBUTIONOFWORKINGGROUPITOTHEFOURTHASSESSMENTREPORTOFTHEINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGE129,136,163(2007),(RamanathanJacobsonZenderHansenBond);7-8(ZenderRamanathan);1651(JacobsonBond)13Flanner,M.G.,C.S.Zender,J.T.Randerson,andP.J.Rasch,Present-dayclimateforcingandresponsefromblackcarboninsnow,112J.GEOPHYS.RES.D11202(2007)(”)14V.Ramanathan&G.Carmichael,5,22615Ramanathan,9316MarkZ.Jacobson,12(20071018),[hereinafterJacobsonTestimony];V.RamanathanandG.Carmichael,5,226(V.RamanathanG.Carmichael)17TimothyLenton,HermannHeld,ElmarKriegler,JimHall,WolfgangLucht,StefanRahmstorf,andHansJoachimSchellnhuber,TippingelementsintheEarth’sclimatesystem,105PROC.OFTHENAT’LACAD.OFSCI.6(2008212)(…...)J.Hansen,ClimateCatastrophe,NEWSCIENTIST(2007728)(.../)18V.RamanathanG.Carmichael,5,221...TamiC.Bond&HaolinSun,CanReducingBlackCarbonEmissionsCounteractGlobalWarming,ENVIRON.SCI.TECHN.(2005),5921()J.Hansen,ABrighterFuture,53CLIMATECHANGE435(2002),(1.0+/-0.5W/m2)19V.RamanathanG.Carmichael,5,22220IPCC,TechnicalSummary,inCLIMATECHANGE2007:THEPHYSICALSCIENCEBASIS.CONTRIBUTIONOFWORKINGGROUPITOTHEFOURTHASSESSMENTREPORTOFTHEINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGE,21(2007)’LACAD.OFSCI.423(2004113)(≈2()”)Zender,8,4(3);J.Hansen&L.Nazarenko,21,426(33)Flanner,M.G.,C.S.Zender,J.T.Randerson,P.J.Rasch,Present-dayclimateforcingandresponsefromblackcarboninsnow,112J.GEOPHYS.RES.D11202(2007)()222°C