华尔街精灵屡试不爽的短期交易策略

PREFACETraderstalkamongstthemselves,notnecessarilytodiscussbullishorbearishmarketopinions,butrathertoshareinsightsintothenatureandquirkinessofthisbusiness.Thementaltolltradingexactsdefinitelyformsbonds.Whenweopenupitisalwayssurprisingtodiscoverthesimilarityoflessonslearned,experiencesshared,andhowweallindependentlyarriveatthesameconclusions.Oftenintalkingwitheachotherwe'rereallylookingforcluesintoourownheads,hopingtounderstandourselvesalittlebetter.Despiteourconstantpursuitofknowledge,themarketitselfassuresthereisnoshortcuttoobtainingourfinaldegree.Intheend,itisexperiencewhichisourultimateteacherandthereisnosubstitute.Wecanonlychoosetheattitudewithwhichweapproachthisprocessoflearningtotrade.Wecanaccepttheinevitablesetbacksandlearnfromthem,orwecanyieldtoournaturalhumanstubbornnessandbeforcedtorepeatthesamelessonsoverandoveragain.Thisbookhasbeenwrittenbytwopeoplewhohavecometoenjoytheprocess.We'vebothdiscoveredwearenottheonlyonestohavemadecertainmistakesandwe'vealsodiscoveredthesamesecretstosuccess...whichwehopetosharewithyou.Thesinglemostimportantsecretisthis:learntolistentothemarketsanddonotimposeyourownwilluponthem.Everysuccessfultraderwehaveknownhasalsodiscoveredthenecessityforconsistency.Itisthekeytoeverything-youmusttradewithacoherentmethodology.Youmustfollowaspecifictradingstrategy.Althoughthisbookpresentsmultiplestrategies,eachandeveryonehasthesameessentialstartingpoint:minimizingriskfirst,lookingtomaximizegainsonlyafterriskhasbeendefinedandcontrolled.Betweenuswehave34yearsofexperienceasfloortraders,exchangemembers,tradersoninstitutionaldesks,hedgefundmanagers,andcommoditytradingadvisors-tradingforourownaccountstheentiretime.Wehititoffwellbecauseournumberoneguidingbeliefisthatyoumust,aboveall,findsetupsandentrieswhichminimizeexposure.Theprofitscomeontheirownterms.Finally,eventhoughwepresentmanydifferentpatterns,youonlyneedONEstrategytobeprosperous.Someofthebesttradersaresuccessfulbecausetheytradeonlyonestrategy.Hopefully,allofthepatternsinthemanualwillincreaseyourawarenessofcertainmarketidiosyncrasiesandwillserveasaconfirmationofyourownmarketobservations.CHAPTER1INTRODUCTIONYes,Virginia,youCANmakealivingfromtrading!Inadaywhenglobalmoneymanagersaregivenincreasingattentionandfundsseemtodominatethemarketarena,itmightbedifficulttoimaginethatthesmallspeculatorcouldhavemuchofanedge.Hastradingbecomeafunctionofcomputerpower?Havemarketschangedinthelastdecade?Howrelevantisthetheoreticalworldintheheatofbattle?Thetruthis,afewtradingtricksandalittlecommonsensewillgetyoumoremileagethanallthebooksontechnicalanalysiscombined.Ultimately,anindividualcanbetterdeterminesupportandresistancethanacomputercan.Andyes,theprivateindividualhasmoreofanedgethanheknows!Thisbookiswrittenfortheactivetrader.Itisacompilationofstrategiesthatthetwoofushavebeentradingwithforthelast15yearsinbothequitiesandfutures.Thestrategiesareconceptuallysimpleandhavebeenreadilyadoptedbyourfriendsandcolleagues.Thisisnotabookoftechnicalanalysis.Itisamanualofprecisesetupsthathaveyouinthemarketforonlyalimitedamountoftime.Considerittobeacollectionofsurgicalstrikeswithadistinctmethodologyformanagingeachone.Eachpatternidentifiesadistinctmarketcondition.Afterall,tradingshouldbedoneononlythemostrecognizableandreliablepatterns.Mostofthesetupscanbetradedonanymarketandonanytimeframe.2Thismanualwillteachyoueverythingweknowaboutswingtrading.Byswingtradingwemeanmonitoringthemarketforsupportandresistancelevelsandactivelytradingaroundthoseareas.Stopsareplacedjustbeneathsupportoraboveresistancetominimizerisk.Youwilllearntorecognizethebestsetupsattheselevelsandthenhowtolockinprofitswhentradesaremade.Inorderforyoutogetthemostoutoftradingthesesetups,afewpointsneedtobecovered:•Itisimportanttoinitiallytradeanewconceptorstrategyonpaper.Onlybyseeingapatternoverandoveragainwillyoutrulyfeelcomfortablewithit.Youmustbelieveinitsabilitytorepeatitself.Don'tbesurprisedifyoufindyourselfactuallybecomingexcitedasyouseethepatternsbegintosetup.•Ifapatterndoesnotmakesensetoyou,don'ttradeit.Ifyoudon'thavea100percentbeliefinit,youwillnotbeabletoovercomelosingstreaks.•Allyouneedisonepatterntomakealiving!Learnfirsttospecializeindoingonethingwell.Weknowtwotraderswhodonothingbuttradetheantipatternfromafive-minuteS&Pchart.AnotherfriendtradesonlyThreeLittleIndiansontickcharts.Traderscanearntheirlivingbytradinganyoneofthepatternsthatwepresentinthisbook.•Yourbiggestenemyintradingisgoingtobeadirectionalbias,anopinionaboutmarketdirection...whetheryours,abroker'sorafriend's.Shutitout!Learntoconcentrateontheright-handsideofthechart-inotherwords,onthepatternathand.•Oneofthethingsyouwillgetoutofthisbookisanincreasedabilitytolistentothemarket.Evenifachapterdoesnotseemtosuityourpersonaltradingstyle,itshouldatleastheightenyourawarenessofmarketactionandpricebehaviouratcriticalpoints.•Noneofthesestrategiesisdesignedtobeamechanicalsystem.Begratefulthattheyarenot!Iftheywere,alargefundwouldcomeintothemarketplaceandexploittheedge.Itisestimatedthatover90percentofthelargepoolsinthecommoditymarketsarerunonamechanicalb