德勤咨询 中国市场进入战略

February2006Dr.ShaneTedjaratiManagingDirectorDeloitteConsulting-ChinaChina–AnExecutiveOverview©2004DeloitteConsulting2“Thenext3to5yearsmayrepresentthemostattractivewindowofopportunityforMNC’stowininChina”McKinseyResearch©2004DeloitteConsulting3Contents1ChinaOverview&MarketTrends2IndustryOverview3LessonsfromtheField©2004DeloitteConsulting4Chinahasexpeditedeconomicreforminthepastdecade,fuelingincreaseinGDPpercapitalatarateofover13%between1978to2002From1978whenChinaadoptedtheOpenDoorpolicy,Chineseeconomyhasexperiencedastonishinggrowth01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0001978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002LaunchofChina’sOpenDoorPolicyBecomesamemberofIMEAppliestojoinGATTEliminateditsdualexchangerateAcceptedfullconvertibilityforcurrentaccounttransactionAnnouncedanoverallrestructuringofSOEsectorSubmittednewtariffandservicesoffersConcludedbilateralmarketaccessagreementwithUSAConcludedbilateralmarketaccessagreementwithEUBecomesamemberofWTOWorkinGATTWorkinggroupissuspendedfortwoyearsCAGR=13.65%YearRMBForthefirsttimeinhistory,China’sGDPpercapitaexceededUS$1000(year2003)ABriefHistorySource:China-theracetomarket©2004DeloitteConsulting5China’seconomicgrowthin2003isestimatedtobe9.1%,outpacingthegovernmentexpectationGDPGrowsTrend•2002GDP%breakdown:52.5%industry,14.5%agricultureand33%services•China’sGDPisexpectedtogrowby8.4%in2004and7.8%in2005•ThegrowthisboostedbyanupturninOECDgrowthandthecontinuedrelocationofmanufacturingcapacityfromhigher-costlocations•Exportswillcontinuetogrowbymorethan15%ayearthroughouttheforecastperiod.However,thiswillstillrepresentaslowdownfromtheunusuallyhighrateofgrowthachievedin2003•Investmentgrowthislikelytoslowsharplyin2004-05asthePBCseekstotightenthesupplyofcreditandthegovernmentbeginstoreininitspolicyofusingpublic-sectorinfrastructurespendingtoboostGDPgrowth012345678910979899000102030405GDPAnnualGrowthRate(%)ActualTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitestimatesandforecastsSource:TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU)Note:Thedataof2003isestimatedbyNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSustainedeconomicgrowthisforeseeable,andisforecastedtobebetween7-8%WorldGDPCAGR(97-06)EconomicEnvironmentGDP©2004DeloitteConsulting6AsChinatransitionsfromacentrally-plannedeconomytoamarketeconomy,itfacesmanychallenges,leadingtomajorstructuralchangeDriversofTransition•AcceleratedprivatizationandrestructuringofstrategicallyimportantSOEsfocusedonoperationalefficiencies•Liquidation/selloffofdistressedassetsofsmallandmediumSOEs•GrowthandmanagementinitiativesfordomesticChinesecompaniestocompeteagainstincreasingnumberofforeigncompaniesinChina•Entranceofforeigncompaniesinnewlyderegulatedindustries,especiallyintheservicessector•Consolidationinderegulatedindustrieswherethereisovercapacity•AccesstocapitalwillcontinuetobeanissueforSOEsanddomesticprivatecompaniesparticularlyintheshorttomediumterm•Increasingacquisitionofstate-ownedandprivateChinesecompaniesbyforeignentitiesasforeignownershiplawsarerelaxed•Improvedcorporategovernance,transparencyofinformationandastrongerregulatoryenvironmenttoprotectinvestorsandprivatefirmswillberequiredStructuralChangesoftheEconomy•AccessiontoWTOhasacceleratedmarketderegulationimpactingalmosteveryaspectoftheeconomy-acrossindustries,creatingnewchallengesandincreasingcompetition•Keyshiftsinstructuree.g.lessstatecontrolrequiresaccesstocapitalcreatingaliquiditycrunch•Bankingandothermacrolevelchangeswilloccur•Privatization,restructuringandclosureofStateOwnedEnterprises(SOEs)haverecentlyacceleratedinresponsetobothmarketandgovernmentpressures•Asaresult,thestructureoftheeconomyischangingrapidlywiththenon-statesectorbecomingamoreprominentpartoftheeconomyEconomicEnvironmentSOEReform*SOE=StateOwnedEnterprises©2004DeloitteConsulting7JointVenturesThestructureofthebusinesslandscapeisshiftingtowardsthenon-state,privatesectorEvolution/FutureView*Increasingeconomicimportanceofnon-statesectorGrossDomesticProductCollectiveCompaniesNon-StateSectorStateSectorPrivateCompaniesPrivateAgricultureDomesticPrivateCompaniesListedCompaniesCentrallycontrolledStateControlledIndustry&Service(PrivateCompanies)StateOwnedLocallycontrolledSharpdeclineexpectedModeratedeclineexpectedStronggrowthexpectedNorealvisibilityintrendsWhollyOwnedForeignCompModerategrowthexpected*shorttomediumtermDomesticPrivateSectorEconomicEnvironmentSOEReform©2004DeloitteConsulting8Asagovernmentpriority,SOEreformpolicywillfocusonprofitmakinginpreparingSOEsfortheinevitablecompetitionagainstforeignentrants*Limitedpubliclyavailabledataonthenon-statesector1AsdefinedbytheChinesegovernmentbasedonacomplexclassificationsystem2Source:StateEconomicandTradeCommission3Perthe19994thPlenumDecisionStateSectorNon-StateSector*•Decliningstatesectorbutstillrepresentarelativelylarge%ofGDP–34%declineinnumberofSOEsasaresultofprivatizations,mergersandbankruptciesbetween1997-2001–Approx174,000SOEsatendof2001(5%classifiedaslarge1SOEs)•MostofthelargeSOEsinstrategicindustriescentrallycontrolled•Decentralizedapproach–90%ofSOEsadmin