贝恩－战略分析方法之一

Author:CollinsQianReviewer:BrianBilellobcBainMathMarch1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.BOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.2CU7112997ECABainMathAgenda•Basicmath•Financialmath•StatisticalmathBOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.3CU7112997ECABainMathAgenda•Basicmath–ratio–proportion–percent–inflation–foreignexchange–graphing•Financialmath•StatisticalmathBOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.4CU7112997ECABainMathRatioDefinition:Application:Note:TheratioofAtoBiswrittenorA:BABAratiocanbeusedtocalculatepriceperunit(),giventhetotalrevenueandtotalunitsPriceUnittotalrevenue=Given:==Answer:PriceUnit$9MM1.5MMThemathforratiosissimple.Identifyingarelevantunitcanbechallengingtotalunits=price/unit=$9.0MM1.5MM$?$6.0BOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.5CU7112997ECABainMathProportionDefinition:IftheratioofAtoBisequaltotheratioofCtoD,thenAandBareproportionaltoCandD.Application:=ItfollowsthatAxD=BxCABCDRevenue=SG&A=Given:$135MM$83MM$270MM$?19961999Answer:$135MM$270MM$83MM$?135MMx?=83MMx270MM83MMx270MM135MM=TheconceptofproportioncanbeusedtoprojectSG&Acostsin1999,givenrevenuein1996,SG&Acostsin1996,andrevenuein1999(assumingSG&Aandrevenuein1999areproportionaltoSG&Aandrevenuein1996)?==$166MMBOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.6CU7112997ECABainMathPercentDefinition:Apercentage(abbreviated“percent”)isaconvenientwaytoexpressaratio.Literally,percentagemeans“per100.”Application:Inpercentageterms,0.25=25per100or25%InherfirstyearatBain,anAClogged7,000frequentfliermilesbyflyingtoherclient.Inhersecondyear,shelogged25,000miles.Whatisthepercentageincreaseinmiles?Given:ApercentagecanbeusedtoexpressthechangeinanumberfromonetimeperiodtothenextAnswer:-1=3.57-1=2.57=257%25,0007,000%change==-1newvalue-originalvalueoriginalvaluenewvalueoriginalvalueTheratioof5to20isor0.25520BOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.7CU7112997ECABainMathInflation-Definitions•Ifanitemcost$1.00in1997andcost$1.03in1998,inflationwas3%from1997to1998.Theitemisnotintrinsicallymorevaluablein1998-thedollarislessvaluable•Whencalculatingthe“real”growthofadollarfigureovertime(e.g.,revenuegrowth,unitcostgrowth),itisnecessarytosubtractouttheeffectsofinflation.Inflationarygrowthisnot“real”growthbecauseinflationdoesnotcreateintrinsicvalue.Definition:Apricedeflatorisameasureofinflationovertime.RelatedTerminology:1.Real(constant)dollars:2.Nominal(current)dollars:3.PricedeflatorPricedeflator(currentyear)Pricedeflator(baseyear)Inflationbetweencurrentyearandbaseyear=Dollarfigure(currentyear)Dollarfigure(baseyear)=Dollarfiguresforanumberofyearsthatarestatedinachosen“base”year’sdollarterms(i.e.,inflationhasbeentakenout).Anyyearcanbechosenasthebaseyear,butalldollarfiguresmustbestatedinthesamebaseyearDollarfiguresforanumberofyearsthatarestatedineachindividualyear’sdollarterms(i.e.,inflationhasnotbeentakenout).Inflationisdefinedastheyear-over-yeardecreaseinthevalueofaunitofcurrency.BOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.8CU7112997ECABainMathInflation-U.S.PriceDeflators*1996isthebaseyearNote:ThesearetheU.S.PriceDeflatorswhichWEFAGrouphasforecastedthroughtheyear2020.ThelibraryhaspurchasedthistimeseriesforallBainemployeestouse.Year1996=100*%ChangeYear1996=100*%Change197027.795.321996100.001.95197129.235.181997101.971.97197230.464.231998104.482.46197332.185.641999107.102.51197435.078.992000109.802.52197538.369.372001112.512.47197640.615.862002115.412.58197743.236.452003118.582.75197846.377.262004122.022.90197950.358.582005125.652.97198055.009.252006129.312.92198160.189.412007132.962.82198263.976.302008136.572.71198366.684.242009140.262.70198469.213.792010144.062.71198571.593.432011147.892.65198673.462.622012151.902.72198775.713.062013156.052.73198878.483.652014160.292.72198981.794.222015164.732.76199085.344.342016169.252.75199188.723.972017173.832.71199291.162.752018178.532.70199393.542.622019183.332.69199495.672.282020188.312.71199598.082.51Adeflatortablelistspricedeflatorsforanumberofyears.BOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.9CU7112997ECABainMathInflation-Realvs.NominalFigures•Tounderstandhowacompanyhasperformedovertime(e.g.,intermsofrevenue,costs,orprofit),itisnecessarytoremoveinflation,(i.e.userealfigures).•Sincemostcompaniesusenominalfiguresintheirannualreports,ifyouareshowingtheclient’srevenueovertime,itispreferabletousenominalfigures.•Foranexperiencecurve,whereyouwanttounderstandhowpriceorcosthaschangedovertimeduetoaccumulatedexperience,youmustuserealfiguresNote:Whentouserealvs.Nominalfigures:Whetheryoushouldusereal(constant)figuresornominal(current)figuresdependsonthesituationandtheclient’spreference.Itisimportanttospecifyonslidesandspreadsheetswhetheryouareusingrealornominalfigures.Ifyouareusingrealfigures,youshouldalsonotewhatyouhavechosenasthebaseyear.BOSCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.10CU7112997ECABainMathInflation-Example(1)(1970-1992)Adjustingforinflationiscriticalforanyanalysislookingatpricesovertime.Innominaldollars,GE’swasherpriceshaveincreasedbyanaverageof4.5%since1970.Whenyouusenominaldollars,itisimpossibletotellhowmuchofthepriceincreasewasduetoinflation.$2,00072Nominaldollars4.5%PriceofaGEWasher1970717