国际货币基金组织报告-第四条磋商报告-中国(英文版)201

©2013InternationalMonetaryFundIMFCountryReportNo.13/211PEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA2013ARTICLEIVCONSULTATIONUnderArticleIVoftheIMF’sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2013ArticleIVconsultationwithChina,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage:StaffReportforthe2013ArticleIVconsultation,preparedbyastaffteamoftheIMF,followingdiscussionsthatendedonMay29,2013,withtheofficialsofChinaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonJune27,2013.TheviewsexpressedinthestaffreportarethoseofthestaffteamanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardoftheIMF.InformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMF.StaffSupplementofJuly9,2013updatinginformationonrecentdevelopments.PressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJuly12,2013discussionofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIVconsultation.StatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforChinaThepolicyofpublicationofstaffreportsandotherdocumentsallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformation.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServices70019thStreet,N.W.Washington,D.C.20431Telephone:[phone]Telefax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]:’SREPUBLICOFCHINASTAFFREPORTFORTHE2013ARTICLEIVCONSULTATIONKEYISSUESOverview.China’seconomicperformanceoverthepastthreedecadeshasbeenremarkable,atestamenttoitsabilitytoimplementnecessarybutdifficultreforms.Continuedsuccessnowrequiresanotherroundofdecisivemeasures—inlinewiththenewleadership’sexpressedintentiontore-energizethereformeffort.Outlookandrisks.Staffexpecttheeconomytogrowby7¾percentthisyear,althoughwithdownsiderisksfrombothexternalanddomesticuncertainties.Sincetheglobalcrisis,amixofinvestment,credit,andfiscalstimulushasunderpinnedactivity.Thispatternofgrowthisnotsustainableandisraisingvulnerabilities.WhileChinastillhassignificantbufferstoweathershocks,themarginsofsafetyarediminishing.Policies.Tosecuremorebalancedandsustainablegrowth,apackageofreformsisneededtocontainthegrowingriskswhiletransitioningtheeconomytoamoreconsumer-based,inclusive,andenvironmentally-friendlygrowthpath.Inthenearterm,apriorityistoreininbroadercreditgrowthandpreventafurtherbuildupofrisksinthefinancialsector.Onlyifgrowthweretoslowtoosharplybelowtheauthorities’target,on-budgetfiscalstimulusshouldbeusedinamannerthatsupportsrebalancingandhelpsprotectvulnerablegroups.Acceleratedfinancialsectorreformsareneededtosecureasafetransitiontoamarket-basedfinancialsystem.Thiswillcombineallowinggreaterroomformarketforces(suchasliberalizinginterestratesinthe‘traditional’bankingindustry)withstrengthenedoversight,governance,andinvestoraccountability.Whilethiswillleadtohigherborrowingcostsformanyfirms,itiscriticaltoreducethelarge-scaleregulatoryarbitrageandmoralhazardevidentinthecurrentsystem,andtoimprovetheallocationofcreditessentialtofuturegrowthandsoundfinance.Thepost-2008expansioninquasi-fiscalactivityneedstobegraduallyunwound.Keyreformstothisendshouldincludeacomprehensiverevampoflocalgovernmentfinances,increasingSOEdividendpaymentstothebudget,andcontinuingtaxreformsallowing,interalia,ashiftinthetaxburdenawayfromregressivesocialcontributions.Amoremarket-basedexchangerate,withreducedintervention,willfacilitatefurtheradjustmentintherenminbiwhichstaffassessasmoderatelyundervaluedagainstabroad-basketofcurrencies.Arangeofotherstructuralreformswillsupportrebalancingandhelpunleashnewsourcesofgrowth,suchasopeningmarketstomorecompetition,reformingresourceprices,andgraduallyliberalizingthecapitalaccount.Benefits.Withasuccessfultransition,Chinawillgrowatahealthypaceforyearstocome.Activitymaybesomewhatslower,atradeoffworthmakingforthebenefitofmuchhigherincomeinthemediumtolongrun—agrowthtrajectorythatwillalsobegoodfortheglobaleconomy.June27,2013PEOPLE’SREPUBLICOFCHINA2INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDSETTING:OUTLOOKANDRISKS________________________________________________________________4 A.MacroeconomicDevelopmentsandOutlook___________________________________________________4 B.Rebalancing_____________________________________________________________________________________6 C.Risks___________________________________________________________________________________________10 POLICIES_________________________________________________________________________________________16 A.TheChallenge_________________________________________________________________________________16 B.DemandManagement_________________________________________________________________________16 STAFFAPPRAISAL_______________________________________________________________________________32 BOXES1.DebtandDeficitswithaBroaderDefinitionofGovernment_________________________________132.TheNexusbetweenInclusiveGrowthandRebalancing______________________________________173.TheEnvironmentandPlannedReforms_________________________