知识学习对动态群体决策观点收敛时间的影响研究

杨雷姜明月(华南理工大学工商管理学院):通过建立动态群体决策观点演化模型,研究个体知识学习对动态群体决策观点稳定性和收敛时间的影响分析结果表明,决策个体的知识水平邻接节点数和知识学习率对观点稳定性和收敛时间有正向影响,其中个体知识学习率的影响最显著,但群体达到稳定状态时的观点值是不确定的仿真实例证明,所提出的观点演化模型可为动态群体决策观点演化和收敛时间的影响分析提供研究基础:;;;:C93:A:1672884X(2011)08120106InfluenceofKnowledgeLearningontheOpinionConvergenceTimeinDynamicGroupDecisionmakingYANGLeiJIANGMingyue(SouthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Guangzhou,China)Abstract:Inthispaper,themodelofopinionevolutionisputforwardtostudytheinfluenceofindividualknowledgelearningonthestabilityofopinionandconvergencetimeingroupdecisionmaking.Thesimulationresultshowsthatthelevelofknowledgeoftheindividualdecisionmaker,thenumberoftheneighboringnodesandtherateofknowledgelearninghaveapositiveeffectonthestabilityandconvergencetimeofopinion,inwhichthelevelofknowledgeoftheindividualdecisionmakerhasthemostsignificantonthem.Atthesametime,thesteadystateofgroupopinionisuncertain.Thesimulationexampleshowsthatthedynamicopinionevolutionmodelcanbeappliedtopublicdecisionmaking,andcanprovidetheresearchbasisfortheanalysisoftheinfluenceonopinionevolutionandconvergencetimeindynamicgroupdecisionmaking.Keywords:dynamicgroupdecisionmaking;knowledgelearning;opinionconvergencetime;opinionevolution:20100224:(09YJA630039);(07JDTDXM63005),,,[1,2],:,[3];[4],,/[5],,,,[6],12018820118ChineseJournalofManagementVol.8No.8Aug.2011,,[7],,,,[8],,,,[9];,,,,[10],,,,,,,1决策中的知识与知识学习1.1SHANNON[11],,DAVENPORT[12],!,[12]NONAKA[13,14],,:,;,,;,[15],,:,,,,1.2,[16],,[17][18]DONGGIL[16],:,,,(),,,,2动态群体决策观点演化模型,:∀;#;∃2.1,:;,,,,0,1,1202882011801oi(t)=rand[0,1],,[0,1],itki(t)%[0,1]2.2,BROOKES[19],t=1,2,&,n,it+1ki(t+1)ki(t+1)=ki(t)+ki(t)(1)(1),ki(t)ki(t)ki(t+1),,ki(t+1)ki(t),ki(t)=∋jb|ki(t)-kjb(t)||1-ki(t)|pijb,(2),kjbjb(b=1,2,&,n),n|ki(t)-kjb(t)|jb2,,,ijb|1-ki(t)|,,,,,,,,,,,|1-ki(t)|,pijb,ijb,pijb(x)=fijb(x)(d=1,2,&,k-1[1-fijd(x)],(3),ki,fijk(x)xx%[0,],,(1),,,;,,,x%[,1],pijb(x),,;,,,i,jk,(d=1,2,&,k-1[1-fijd(x)]ijk,,,,1,ki(t)0,i%N,,,kit)02.3,N,itoi(t)21203∗∗∗:,i,it+1t;!,i,i=ki(t)ki(t)+ki(t),!=ki(t)ki(t)+ki(t)(4)+!=1,oi(t+1)=(,!)+oi(t),(5),+!,rand[0,1],rand[0,1],1-!,oi(t+1)=oi(t);,oi(t+1)=1-oi(t):1,,ki(t))02,,3,3决策个体观点演化过程,,1N,iki(0)[0,1],,ioi(0),oi(0)=01(i=1,2,&,N),ki(0)=rand[0,1],oi(0)=1,rand,∀;0,rand∀(6)2ijb(b=1,2,&,n,n),ki(t)=∋jb|ki(t)-kjb(t)||1-ki(t)|pijb,pijb(3),it+1ki(t+1)=ki(t)+ki(t)(7)3it+1!,rand[0,1],rand[0,1],1-!,oi(t+1)=oi(t);,oi(t+1)=1-oi(t);oi(t+1)=(,!)+oi(t)(8)4,52~5T4仿真实例与结果分析,:,2:1,,;2,,10!,21!N=5000,p=0.955=0.05,p=0.258=0.05(1),95%,150005000.49650.49840.288810.500050011()0.50.5250025082500249224992541Z-0.0571.132p()0.9550.258,in=5,100∀01(∀=0.5),jbpijb(x)~N(0.95,12),rand[0,1],iki(t)t,12048820118212,130,,,;3050,;50,,125164.1,,;,,0.5#=∋Ni=1ki(t)/N,ki(0))0.5(9)3:N=5000,100∀=0.5,pijb(x)~N(0.95,12),33,#=0.330%,70%#=0.7#=0.3,,60,,1[2490,2570],2552,#=0.7,,,,,,,,125522479,4.2,,in,N=5000,100∀=0.5,pijb(x)~N(0.95,12),#=0.5444n=1n=2n=5,5,45,2525;2,60,2495;1,40,,80,24881205∗∗∗,,,4.3,,,N=5000,100∀=0.5,pijb(x)~N(0.95,∃2),#=0.5555,∃1=0.4,∃2=0.7,∃3=0.9,∃4=1.2∃1=0.4,,,,100,∃2=0.7,∃3=0.9∃4=1.2,,585248,,,,5结语,,:,;,,,;,,;,,,,;,,,[1],.[J].,1997,17(9):22~26.[2].[M].:,2004.[3],.[J].,2002,5(1):25~34.[4]BARTHELEMYJP,BISDOFFR,COPPING.HumanCenteredProcessesandDecisionSupportSystems[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,2002,136(2):233~252.(1262)12068820118lishingCo,2002:245~287.[37]DIETRICHA.TheCognitiveNeuroscienceofCreativity[J].PsychonomicBulletin&Review,2004,11(6):1011~1026.[38]MARTINL,STONERP.MoodasInput:WhatWeThinkAboutHowWeFeelDeterminesHowWeThink[M]//MARTINL,TESSERA.StrivingandFeeling:InteractionsAmongGoals,Affect,andSelfregulation.Hillsdale,NJ:LEA,1996:279~301.[39]MACKIEDM,WORTHLT.FeelingGood,ButNotThinkingStraight:TheImpactofPositiveMoodonPersuasion[M]//FORGASJ.Emotionandsocialjudgment.Oxford,UK:Pergamon,1991:201~220.[40].[J].,1985,17(2):209~215.[41]LAZARUSRS.CognitionandMotivationinEmotion[J].AmericanPsychologist,1991,46(4):352~367.[42]LERNERJS,KELTNERD.BeyondValence:TowardaModelofEmotionSpecificInfluencesonJudgmentandChoice[J].CognitionandEmotion,2000,14(4):473~493.[43]SMITHSM,BLANKENSHIPSE.IncubationandthePersistenceofFixationinProblemSolving[J].TheAmericanJournalofPsychology,1991,104(1):61~87.[44]WEISSHM,CROPANZANOR.AffectiveEventsTheory:ATheoreticalDiscussionoftheStructure,CausesandConsequencesofAffectiveExperiencesatWork[J].ResearchinOrganizationalBehavior,1996,18(s1):1~3.():汤超颖(1970~),,(100190)Email:[e-mail](1206)[5]HOLTHAMC,COUNTERYN.DevelopingManagerialLearningStylesintheContextoftheStrategicApplicationofInformationandCommunicationsTechnologies[J].InternationalJournalofTraining&Development,2001,5(1):22~34.[6].∗∗∗[J].,2001,16(5):340~348.[7],.[J].,2001,23(7):33~37.[8]HOLLENBECKJR,IIGENDR,HEDLUNDJ,etal.MultilevelTheoryofTeamDecisionMaking:DecisionPerformanceinTeamIncorporatingDistributedExpertise[J].JournalofAppliedPsychology,1995,80(2):292~316.[9]PARKSCD,COWLINRA.AcceptanceofUncommonInformationintoGroupDiscussionWhenThatInformationIsorIsNotDemonstrable[J].OrganizationalBehaviorandHumanDecisionProcesses,1996,66(3):307~315.[10]LIANGDW,MORELANDR,ARGO