人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展系统分析

20001212:100026788(2000)1220001206,,,,(,100080):,,,L:;;:N945.1aSystemAnalysisofHarmonizationDevelopmentamongPopulation,Resource,EnvironmentandEconomyZENGRong,WEIYi2ming,FANYing,LIZhi2jie,XUWei2xuan(InstituteofPolicyandManagement,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080)Abstract:Thenatureofsustainabledevelopmentsystemliesinthewaytoharmonizetheirrelationsamongpopulation,resource,environmentandeconomy.Dependingonanalyzingtheessentialfeatureandstructure,internalmechanismamongsubsystemanddevelopingprocessofthissysteminasystemtheoryofview,thispaperpresentedtheconceptofcomplexsystemofsustainabledevelopment.Keywords:sustainabledevelopment;systemanalysis;complexsystem1(WCED)[1],,,[24]L19942121,,,[5]LL,,,(Population)(Resource)(Environment)(Economy)(PREE),,,L,,,L,:(PREE),PREELa:2000204210:(9992003);(9923)©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2,,,(PREE),L1L,LPREE,LLPREE,,L,,L,L,PREE,L,,L,L,L()L,,L(I.Prigogine):,,,[7]L1,PREE,,,,,,LPREE,L,PREE:,,,,,,LPREE,L,,L,,PREEö,,,,LPREE,LPREEL,PREE[8],,,,,L2200012©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1([6])3PREE,PREEL,,,,L3.1PREE,,,,L22,(),,;,,,,,L,,L,;,,,L312©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.3.2PREE3L,L,,L3,:,,;,L,L,,(),()L3.3PREE,L;()()L44,:,,,;,,,L,,,;,,;,,,L3.4PREE,,L,;,L55,:(),,,;,(),,,L,,L,,L,,,,L4200012©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.4PREE,L,,:PREE,;PREE,L4.1PREE,:,,6A(r);,,,(),6B(K)L,,,,;,L4.2PREEL,,,L,L,L7,,,;(),,L6logistic7logistic5PREE,L,,L,,,,PREEL512©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:[1]WCED(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment).OurCommonFuture[R].Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1987.[2]CaldwellLK.Politicalaspectsofecologicallysustainabledevelopment[J].EnvironmentConservation,1984,11(4):299308.[3]ClarkWC,MumnRE.SustainableDevelopmentoftheBiosphere[M].Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.1986.[4]GoodlandR,LedecG.Noclassicaleconomicsandprinciplesofsustainabledevelopment[J].EcologicalModeling,1987,38:1946.[5],.2121[R].:,1994.[6],..[J],1999,17(3):4145.[7].[M].:,1988.[8],,.[J].,1990,(1):310.[9].22[A].,,.22[C].:,1999.[10],,..[J],1997,6(1):3439.[11],.-[M].:,1997.[12].[M].:,1995.[13].22[J].,1999,17(2):2324.[14],.[J].,1999,14(4):5459.[15],,.[J].(),1998,32(2):235240.[16].[D].,1996:2160.[17].[A]..[C].:,1994:6872.[18].[A].,,.22[C].:,1999:146163.[19].[J].,1999,14(1):2427.[20],.[J].,1998,17(2):131137.[21].[J].,1999,18(3):1013.[22].[J].,1999,4:2124.[23].[M].:,1994.[24],,.2[J].,1997,6(1):4058.6200012©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.