房地产泡沫形成及应对措施

房地产泡沫形成的原因及应对措施系部：土木工程专业班级：房建1005姓名：周世杰学号：201040531指导老师：吴光翠2013年9月25日西南科技大学城市学院项目实践论文1房地产泡沫形成及应对措施摘要：房地产泡沫往往出现在一个国家经济繁荣时期，表现为房地产价格飞涨形成泡沫，但达到顶峰状态后，市场需求急剧下降，房价下跌从而泡沫破灭。房地产泡沫有可能演化为泡沫经济，一旦泡沫破灭，将给一个国家或地区的经济带来严重后果。我国房地产业近几年来一直保持高速增长，房地产价格逐年攀升，引起各界对我国房地产业是否有泡沫这一问题的广泛关注。深入研究房地产泡沫的形成机理与防范措旌，对保障国民经济健康发展具有重要的现实意义。作者先是对国内外学者对于房地产泡沫理论的研究作了简要介绍；然后在阐明泡沫理论的基础上，结合国内外案例分析了房地产泡沫的原因，归纳了房地产泡沫的表现形式，并列举其危害；通过回顾历史上出现的房地产泡沫和中国房地产市场的现状，得出中国房地产市场存在泡沫隐患的结论，进而用投机和预期理论对房地产泡沫从产生到破灭做了经济学解释。房地产泡沫的预警和防范是本文的重点：首先对各种预警指标作一简单介绍，而后对预警系统的设计发表了自己的看法，即根据各个城市的具体情况对各个预警指标赋予不同的权重。文章的最后从宏观、微观及产业政策多个视角来审视我国房地产业发展中存在的问题，并且针对房地产泡沫的防范，在货币政策、财政政策、产业政策以及规范政府行为方面提出诸多建议。关键词：房地产，泡沫经济，空置率，预警指标西南科技大学城市学院项目实践论文2RealestatebubbleformationandcountermeasuresAbstract：Therealestatebubbleoftenoccurinacountry'seconomicprosperityperiod,theperformanceofrealestatepricessoaringshapeintofoam,butthepeakstate,asharpdeclineinmarketdemand,pricesfallandbust.Therealestatebubblemayresultinbubbleeconomy,oncethebubbleburst,willgiveacountryorregion'seconomicbringseriousconsequences.China'srealestateindustryinrecentyearshasmaintainedrapidgrowth,realestatepricehasclimbedrise,causedwidespreadconcernfromallwalksoflifetoourcountryrealestatebubblethisproblem.Studyofrealestateestatebubbleformationmechanismandpreventionmeasures,hasimportantpracticalsignificancetoguaranteethehealthydevelopmentofthenationaleconomyRighteousness.Theauthorfirstofscholarsathomeandabroadarebrieflyintroducedinthispaperfortheresearchoftherealestatebubbletheory;thenexpoundedonthebubbletheoryin,combinedwithdomesticandforeigncasestoanalyzethecausesofrealestatebubble,summarizestheformsofrealestatebubble,citingitsharm;throughthereviewofhistoryoftheemergenceofrealtherealestatebubbleandChina'srealestatemarket,theChineserealestatemarketbubblemayconclude,thenbyspeculativeandexpectationtheorytotherealestatebubblefromgenerationtobursttheeconomicsexplanation.Earlywarningandtopreventrealestatebubbleisthefocusofthispaper:firstly,tomakeabriefintroductiontoavarietyofearlywarningindicatorsofearlywarningsystem,andthensetmeterexpressedtheirviews,namelyaccordingtothespecificcircumstancesofeachcityandeachoftheearlywarningindextodifferentweight.Finally,fromtheangleofmacro,microandindustrialpolicytoexaminethedevelopmentexistinChina'srealestateproblems,andinviewoftherealestatebubbleprevention,putforwardmanysuggestionsonmonetarypolicy,fiscalpolicy,industrialpolicyandstandardizethegovernmentbehavior.Keywords:realestate,thebubbleeconomy,thevacancyrate,earlywarningindex目录第一章房地产泡沫的实质.............................................................................................................11.1概述.....................................................................................................................................11.2特征....................................................................................................................................11.2.1房价表现..................................................................................................................11.2.2需求表现.................................................................................................................31.2.3供给表现..................................................................................................................5第二章房地产泡沫的危害.............................................................................................................62.1著名的房地产泡沫事件....................................................................................................72.1.1美国房地产泡沫....................................................................................................72.1.2日本房地产泡沫....................................................................................................72.1.3中国房地产泡沫，以海南为例...........................................................................82.2房地产泡沫的危害............................................................................................................8第三章房地产泡沫的成因...........................................................................................................113.1房地产泡沫产生的三个主要原因..................................................................................123.1.1土地稀缺................................................................................................................123.1.2投机需求膨胀......................................................................................................123.1.3过度放贷................................................................................................................123.2其他原因...........................................................................................................................133.2.1居民收入水平过低导致房价收入比过高............................................................13第四章房地产泡沫的防治措施...................................................................................................144.1加强对房地产市场的宏观监控和管理...........................................................................154.2建立全国统一的房地产市场运行预警预报制度.................................................