哈尔滨市经济_水环境污染关系研究

国内图书分类号：X321学校代码：10213国际图书分类号：628.1密级：公开工学硕士学位论文哈尔滨市经济—水环境污染关系研究硕士研究生：王建龙导师：樊庆锌副教授申请学位：工学硕士学科：环境科学与工程所在单位：市政环境工程学院答辩日期：2010年6月授予学位单位：哈尔滨工业大学ClassifiedIndex:X321U.D.C:628.1DissertationfortheMasterDegreeinEngineeringRELATIONSHIPSTUDYONHARBIN’SECONOMYANDWATERENVIRONMENTPOLLUTIONCandidate：WangJianlongSupervisor：Assoc.Prof.FanQingxinAcademicDegreeAppliedfor：MasterofEngineeringSpeciality：EnvironmentalScienceandTechnologyAffiliation：DepartmentofMunicipalandEnvironmentalEngineeringDateofDefence：June,2010Degree-Conferring-Institution：HarbinInstituteofTechnology哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文-I-摘要国民生产总值(GDP)是衡量一个地区发展情况最重要的指标，能从侧面反映一个国家或地区的经济发展水平。然而随着人类社会的发展和GDP的不断增长，因社会经济规模增长、产业结构不合理、生产布局不适当和环境保护措施不得力原因等引起的环境问题日显突出，并已对经济建设、社会生活造成有形或无形的损失，成为城市可持续发展的制约因素。因此，研究经济发展与环境污染物排放之间的关系，实现经济与环境和谐发展，对改善环境质量，维持城市可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在深入了解哈尔滨市城市经济发展和水环境特点的基础上，收集哈尔滨市环境污染物排放现状资料和数据，指出目前哈尔滨市环境系统面临的种种问题，并计算出2008年哈尔滨市废水排放导致的经济损失约占当年GDP总量的7%。以废水排放量和COD排放量为主要指标，从环境改变与经济发展关系的角度分析哈尔滨市近几年的水环境污染物排放状况，及变化的原因和影响因素。选取适当的环境污染经济损失计算方法，计算了2001~2009年水环境污染物排放导致的城市市政行业，工业、渔业和农业的经济损失。根据系统动力学建模理论，构建哈尔滨市经济—水环境系统动力学模型。在保证经济增长速度的前提下设计出4种方案，对水环境污染物排放量进行预测，通过将水环境污染货币化更加直观的反映环境污染与经济增长之间的关系。分析对比每种方案模拟结果，得到结论：若维持现状，哈尔滨市市区工业废水排放量将达到5.04亿吨，COD排放量将达到11.9万吨；综合了节水减排和政策调整的方案是对经济发展影响最小，减排效果最佳的方案。采用该方案，到2020年哈尔滨市区废水排放总量将少排放6000万吨，每天减少废水排放16.36万吨，节约污水处理建设投资约2.8亿元。根据仿真模拟结果，提出降低哈尔滨市水环境污染物排放量的具体措施。关键词：哈尔滨市；经济环境；系统动力学；环境经济损失；仿真模拟哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文-II-AbstractGrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isthemostimportantindicatorofmeasuringaregion'sdevelopment.However,duetothegrowthofsocio-economy,irrationalindustrialstructureandmulfunctionalenvironmentalprotectionmeasures,withthedevelopmentofhumansocietyandthecontinuousgrowthofGDP,theenvironmentproblemshavebroughtsignificanteffectsonsociallife,andurban’ssustainabledevelopmentisunderconstraintofenvironmentpollution.Therefore,thestudyoftherelationshipbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandenvironmentalcontaminations’emissionhasgreatimportanceofimprovingtheenvironmentqualitywhilemaintainingsustainableurbandevelopment.ThisthesisstudiedthecharacteristicsofHarbin’surbaneconomicdevelopmentandwaterenvironment,collectedstatusinformationanddataofwatercontaminations,analyszedHarbin’senvironmentproblemsandcalculatedtheeconomiclosscausedbywastewaterdischargewhichwasaround7%oftheveryyear’stotalGDPin2008andwasmuchmorethantheenvironmentinvestmentweightofthesameyear.ChosewastewaterandCODdischargevolumeasthemainindicator,analyzedthefactorseffectingwaterenvironmentalpollutantsdischargevolume.Afterselectingtheappropriatemethod,thisthesiscalculatedtheeconomiclossesofmunicipalsectorandagriculturalproductionbroughtbywaterpollutionduring2001-2009.Accordingtosystemdynamicsmodelingtheory,basedonanalyzingthestructureofurbaneconomyandenvironment,asystemdynamicsmodelofHarbin’seconomyandwaterenvironmentsystemwasbuilt.4schemesaredesignedtosolvetheproblemwhichthecity’scurrenteconomyandenvironmentsystemisfacing.TheschemesaredesignedtoreducethewastewaterandCODdischargevolumewhiletheeconomicgrowspeedwon’tdecline.Forecastedthewatercontaminationsdischargevolumeandtheeconomiclossbroughtbywastewaterdischarging,andgotthefollowingconclusions:ThetendencyofurbansewageandCODdischargevolumeisgoingtoberising.Ifthecurrentstatuscontinues,theindustrialwastewatervolumewillbe5.04×108tones,andCODdischargevolumewillbe11.9×104tones.Theschemecombiningwatersavingmeasuresandeconomicpolicy哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文-III-changingstrategyisthebestwhichbarelyeffectstheeconomicdevelopmentandmosteffectivelyreducecontaminations’dischargingvolume.Withthisveryscheme,by2020urbanwastewaterdischargevolumewillbereducedbytheamountof6×107tones,andCODdischargevolumewillbereducedbytheamountof1.636×105toneseachday.0.28billionyuanwatertreatmentplant’sconstructioninvestmentwillbesaved.Latersomesuggestionandadvisesaregivenaccordingtothesimulationresults.Keywords:HarbinCity,environmenteconomy,systemdynamics,environmenteconomicloss,simulation哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文-IV-目录摘要.................................................................................................................................IAbstract..............................................................................................................................II第1章绪论....................................................................................................................11.1课题研究背景及意义............................................................................................11.2经济环境协调发展的研究进展............................................................................21.2.1国外研究进展.................................................................................................21.2.2国内研究进展.................................................................................................51.3系统动力学及其在研究中的应用.......................................................................81.3.1系统动力学简介.............................................................................................81.3.2系统动力学原理.............................................................................................91.3.3系统动力学特点........