房地产评估与房地产经济学

房地产评估与房地产经济学ChengriDingAssociateProfessorNationalCenterforSmartGrowthUniversityofMarylandSpecialAssistantToPresidentofLincolnInstituteofLandPolicy’sChinaProgram丁成日博士马里兰大学城市规划系终身教授马里兰大学城市理性增长国家中心林肯土地政策研究院总裁特别助理兼中国部主任WhatisRealEstateEconomics什么是房地产经济学•Isaboutpeopleandhowtheiractionsaffectrealestatevalues房地产经济研究人以及人的行为影响房地产价值•Realestateeconomicsisastudythatuseseconomicprinciples,bothmacroandmicro,toanalyzetheimpactthatnational,regional,community,andneighborhoodtrendshaveonrealestatevalues.房地产经济学使用微观和宏观经济学原则分析国家、区域、社区和邻里对房地产价值的影响•Ithelpspeopletounderstandwhatcausesfluctuationsinrealestateactivityandhowthesechangescanaffectlocalrealestatemarkets.房地产经济学帮助人们理解影响房地产市场涨跌以及这些变化又如何影响地方房地产市场WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty影响房地产价值的因素•Capitalmarkets—supplyside资本市场——供给方面•Labormarkets—demandside劳动力市场——需求方面•Populationgrowth—demandside人口增长——需求方面•Marketsegmentation—localityofsupplyanddemand,typesoruses,characteristicsofpropertyetc.市场分割——供需的地方性，类型或使用，房地产特性等WhatareFactorsthatAffecttheValueofaProperty影响房地产价值的因素•Interrelationshipbetweensub-marketsofproperties房地产子市场的相关性•Regulationsandlaws(taxation,landuseregulation)规定与法律（税收、土地利用规定）•Urbaninfrastructureandneighborhoodamenity城市基础设施和社区舒适度•Political,social,andeconomicforces政治、社会和经济力量CapitalMarketandPropertyMarket资本市场和房地产市场•Supplyofstructure对结构（建筑面积）的需求•Marketpricesandnetoperatingincomeofaproperty(rent)市场价格和房地产净运营收入（租金）•Interrelationshipbetweencapitalmarketandrealestatemarket(shortrunandlongrun)资本市场和房地产市场的相关性（短期和长期）RealEstateMarketandMarketEquilibrium房地产市场和市场平衡Capitalmarketinducedincreasesinsupply,decreaseinrents资本市场导致的供给增加，租金降低TheimpactofdecreaseinthemarketcapitalizationrateonrealestatemarketLocationandValueofaProperty房地产区位和价值•Supplyofland•Urbanlandrentgradientandlandprice•Relationbetweenurbanlandpriceandcapitaldensity•Landpriceandurbanlanduse(spatialstructure)•土地供给•城市土地租金梯度和土地价格的关系•城市土地价格和资本密度的关系•土地价格和城市土地利用（空间结构）UrbanLandMarket城市土地市场•Supplyoflandisinelastic,demandiselastic•土地供给是非弹性的，需求是弹性的PQSDTranslatingrentstolandprices将租金转化为土地价值•Rentsareafunctionof:•Agriculturallandvalue•Valueofthestructures•Locationvalue•Expectedgrowthinlocationvalue•租金是包括如下因子的函数：•农用土地价格•建筑结构价格•区位价格•预计区位价格的增长Translatingrentstolandprices将租金转化为土地价值Pricesareafunctionof:•Interestrates•Expectedrentgrowth•Riskofrentalpayment•Taxregime价格是一个如下因素决定的函数：•利率•预计租金增长•租金支付风险•税收体制Landuseefficiencyindicatedbyhigh-degreeofland-capitalinputsubstitution土地和资本投入的相互替代程度,关系到城市土地使用效率的高低DensityProfilewithLandMarkets土地市场下的城市密度空间变化ParisLandPrice(rentgradient)andSpatialStructure级差地租与空间结构CommercialIndustrialResidentialAgriculturalLanduseisdeterminedbythehighestbidder.Showseconomicdeterminantsoflandusesegregation.Landvaluesinmulti-nuclearcities•CitySpatialFormandGrowth•CitySpatialFormandGrowthHousingEconomics住房经济学Characteristicsofhousingcommodityandhousingmarkets•Heterogeneity(style,rooms,location,amenity,urbanservicesetc.)•Immobility•Achangeinhousingconsumptionmeansachangeinresidentiallocation•Hightransactioncosts•Marketsegmentations房屋及其房屋市场的特性•异质性（风格，房间数，位置，城市服务等）•不可移动性•住房消费的变化意味着驻地的变化•高的交易成本•分割的市场HousingEconomics住房经济学•Whatisconsumed?Itisattributesofhousingthatincludesstructuralfactorsandlocationalamenity•Widerangeofvariationinpricechangeacrosscitiesaswellasacrosslocalitywithinacity•Buyingahouse=investment?Maybe.•住房消费？消费的是房屋的属性（结构，大小，区位属性等)•城市间，一个城市内部不同地理位置房屋价格基期价格的变化相当不同•买房不等于投资HousingEconomics住房经济学),,(NLSFP房屋价格函数P=Housingprice;房屋价格S=Vectorofstructurevariables;结构矢量L=Vectoroflocational(access)variables区位矢量N=Vectorofneighborhoodvariables;邻里矢量HousingEconomics住房经济学),,(,,NLSfNLSP房屋价格函数)(LfSPWhatisthemeaningofthispartialderivatives?Marginalprices偏导的意义？边际价格Spatialdriftofcoefficients(marginalprices),implyingthatthecostofoneadditionalroomvariesacrosslocality.边际价格的空间“漂移”,如，加一个房间的价格在不同地方是不一样的HousingEconomics住房经济学房屋属性价格房地产商开价市场隐形价格CBA居民竞标价格房屋属性房屋市场均衡(Rosen,1974)决定房屋的价格影响房地产价格的外在因素1.ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和经济力量的影响ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地产市场的外在因素2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis区域与社区分析3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis邻里单元价值分析4.LandUsePlanning土地利用规划•PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影响价值•Propertyrightsandownership财产权和所有权•ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美国第五和第十四修正案•Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols联邦财政补助和财政控制•Rateofinterests利率1.ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和经济力量的影响SocialForcesinfluencingValue社会因素影响价值•Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增长率（时间与空间）•Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口构成（年龄、种族、性别和收入）•Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住房/千人）1.ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces政治、社会和经济力量的影响•GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影响价值的经济因素•Grossnationalproduct国民生产总值•Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和实际收入水平•Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失业率衡量就业水平。失业率，丧失赎回权和拖欠财产税的相关性•Personalsavingandinvestments个人存款和投资•Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商业和地产活动•StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue国家和区域因素影响价值•Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差异•Differentialsofeconomicprospective经济远