成都市水资源承载力及生态环境效应研究

成都理工大学博士学位论文成都市水资源承载力及生态环境效应研究姓名：曾洪扬申请学位级别：博士专业：古生物学与地层学（含：古人类学）指导教师：王成善20090101i19722200906(:)“”(RegionalWaterResourcesCarryingCapacity),“”(CarryingCapacity),“”07RKYB80ZF-010“”1515.9mm63.9m363.9m3/231.73m3/20.33m373.88m3110m3367.51m3/456.39m3/94.95%79.79%76.1%5.05%520002006420.2m3,GDP237.79m3432.66m3155.78m3,1170.01m356%24%20%6148.42m3/s46.8m3148.42m3/s46.8m3ii7——200020060.620.720.658714PG9200520071128.441105.081130.213319.243305.613326.8920102020201020201204.451324.164056.788178.45AbstractiiiStudyoncarryingcapacityandEco-environmentEffectofwaterresourcesinChengduIntroductionoftheauthor:ZengHongyang,male,wasborninFeb,1972.whosetutorwasProfessorWangChengshan.HegraduatedfromChengduUniversityofTechnologyinPaleontologyandStratigraphymajorandwasgrantedtheDoctorDegreein06,2009.AbstractcontentofabstractWaterresourcesareimportantnaturalresourcesofhumanthatcannotbereplaced.Itisnotonlythekeyfactortomaintainfunctionintegrityandvirtuouscircleofecosystemandbasicresourcestomaintainexistenceofmankindanddevelopmentofsocialandeconomic,butalsostrategiceconomicresourceandessentialcomponentofcomprehensivenationalpowerofourcountry.Theconceptof“CarryingCapacityofWaterResources”iscomefrom“carryingCapacity”inecology,whichispartofcarryingcapacityofnaturalresource.Thisissuestudyon“problemofcarryingcapacityandEco-environmentEffectofwaterresourcesinChengdu”whichisnotbevaluedhighlybypeoplecurrently.ThroughanalysisofwaterresourcescarryingcapacityofChengdu,wecarryoutmanagementgameoffuturewaterresourcesinthiscityandprimarystudyoneco-environmenteffectduetotheproblemofwaterresources.Thisstudyhasimportantscientificsignificancetoadvancetheory,researchapproachandappliedresearchofScienceofwaterresources,DepartmentofEcologicalandEnvironmentandMacromanagement.ThisstudyhasreferencevalueonthoroughlyapplyingtheScientificOutlookonDevelopment,advancingtheBalanceRuralandUrbanDevelopmentanddrawingupsustainabledevelopmentproject.Thisthesisisthemainresearchfindingsof“StudyonaffordabilityofwaterresourcesandsustainabledevelopmentofChengdu”,whichistechnologyprojectsofChengdu.Wedrawthemainconclusionthroughresearchasfollow:1)Wedefinitethatmeanannualrunoffdepthis515.9mm,meanannualrunoffwaterresourcesare6390millioncubicmeters.Formthis,wemakesurethatmeanannualsurfacewaterresourcesare6390millioncubicmetersperyear;2)UndergroundwaterresourcesinChengduisrich,easytomineandthewaterqualityisgood.Throughcalculate,undergroundwaternaturalresourcesis3173millioncubicmetersperyear,meanannualundergroundwaterproductionvolumeis2033millioncubicmeters.Upperwaterstoreresourceofunderwatercarrieris7388millioncubicinChengduPlain;Throughestimate,understoreresourceofunderwatercarrieris7388millioncubicbutisextremelyhardtoexploit;3)WemakesurethetotalwaterresourcesinChengduis6751millioncubicmetersperyear(notcontainthetransitwaterresources);4)Watersupplyingcapacityhasreachediv5639millioncubicmetersinChengdu,uppergroundwateristhemainservicedischargewhichaccountsfor94.95%,transitwaterresourcesaccountfor79.79%.MinjiangRiveraccountfor76.1%isthemaintransitwaterresources.Undergroundwateraccountfor5.05%;5)Meanpercapitawaterconsumptionis420.2cubicmeters,meanper100,000YuanofGDPwaterconsumptionis404.3cubicmeters,meanper100,000Yuanofvalueofindustrialoutputwaterconsumptionis155.8cubicmeters,meanper100,000Yuanofvalueofagriculturaloutputwaterconsumptionis1170cubicmeters.Agriculturalwaterconsumptiontakethelargestportionaccountfor56%,industrialaccountfor24%isthesecondly,domesticwatertaketheminimumportionaccountfor20%;6)Fromcalculate,ecologicalwaterdemandofmainriverinChengduis148.42m3/s,oneyearofecologicalwaterdemandis4680millioncubicmeters,whichistosay148.42m3/sandoneyearof4680millioncubicmeterswateristheminimumwaterdemandtomaintainecologicalenvironment;7)Tocalculatethecarryingcapacityofwaterresources,weestablishedmodelequationsuchasequationofwaterresourcestransformationrelation,equationofrelationbetweenwaterresourcesandpopulation-industry-agriculture,equationofrestrictiverelationbetweenpopulation,industryandagriculture,equationoftotalcontaminationandconcentration,equationofcontrolobjective,inhibitableequationofbearingcapacityofwaterresources.Throughcalculate,waterresourcescarryingabilityindicesisbetween0.26and0.72,averageis0.65from2000to2006;8)7parametersandatotalof14secondaryparametershavebeenselected,suchasthenumberofpopulation,economicdevelopment,demandofagriculturalwater,demandofindustrialwater,demandofdomesticwater,demandofecologicalenvironmentwater,watersupplycapacity.Wehaveinputitsdataintotheprogram,workingoutthetotalpopulationcarryingcapacityofwaterresourcesandwaterresourcesgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofChengdu;9)From2005to2007,thetotalquantityofwaterresourceinChengducansupportthelargestpopulationof11.2844million,11.0508millionand11.3021millionandcansupportthelargestGDPof331.924billionYuan,330.561billionYuan,332.689billionYuan.In2010and2020,predictablewaterresourcescansupportthelargestpopulationof12.0445millionand13.2416million,andsupportthelargestgrossdomesticproductabout405.678billionYuanand817.84