环境Kuznets曲线研究及应用

326200211MATHEMATICSINPRACTICEANDTHEORYVol132No16Nov.,2002Kuznets1,2(1.,225009)(2.,210096):Kuznets,.Kuznets.:Kuznets(EKC);Gini;Kuznets1:2002206211:(No:70101005)(No:02KJB120001):U,,,(HiltonandLevinson,1998;GrosmanandKrueger,1995;Holtz2EakinandSelden,1995;SeldenandSong,1994;ShafikandBandyopadhyay,1992).Kuznets(1955),(EnvironmentalKuznetsCurve,EKC)(SeldenandSong,1994).(1991,1994,1999)LornenzU,,.,.1995SO2,(SPM)SO2NOx,(,1999).,.,,,.2EKCEKCU,GNP.1-.,.,.Holtz2EakinandSelden(1995)CO,EKC.SeldenandSong(1994).:SO2EKCGDP10,000,NOxCOEKC©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.10,000.:EKC,.HiltonandLevinson(1998)GDP,U,GDP7,000.Holtz2EakinandSelden(1992)COGDP.:1,COGDP,,GDP8,000,000.1-(1995)GrossmanandKruegerSPM,SO2,42(SO2)29(SPM)197719888,000,,ShafikandBandyopadlhyaySPM,SO2,149197219883,670(SO2)3,280(SPM),,,SeldenandSongSPM,SO2,NOx,CO30197319849,00010,000(SPM,SO2)12,00022,000(NOx,CO),Holtz2EakinandSeldenCO130195119868,000,000HoltonandLevinson48197219927,000,:SPM.GrossmanandKrueger(1995)GDP..14,13EKC,GDP1,88711,632.:GDP.GrossmanandKrueger:EKCGDP8000(1985).,.,ShafikandBandyopadlhyay(1995)GDP.:GDPU,GDPU.,:,U;,,GDPEKC,GDP;,.3U(1994,1999),.311,(P)(PA)(PN),P=PA+PN(1)5496:Kuznets©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.AA=PAP(2)AN=PNP(3)AA+AN=1(4):AAAN.(Y)(YA)(YN):Y=YA+YN(5)BA=YAY(6)BN=YNY(7)BA+BN=1(8):BABN.(yA)(yN)(y):yA=YAPA(9)yN=YNPN(10)y=YP(11)DADN:DA=yAy(12)DN=yNy(13),,DADN.(6)(7):BA=YAY=yAõPAyõP=DAõAA(14)BN=YNY=yNõPNyõP=DNõAN(15).GAGN0:GA=GN=0(16):GAGNGini.312,Lornenz(1).1,LornenzObe,,:AAAN;:BABN.Gini:G=SS+A+B+C(17)64932©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1,:A=12AABA,B=ANBN,C=12ANBN,S=12-12AABA+ANBA+12ANBN1Lornenz(17):G=1-(AABA+2ANBA+ANBN)(18)BN=1-BA,AN=1-AA,,G=AA-BA(19)G=BN-AN(20)(14)(15)(19)(20):G=AA(1-DA)(21)G=AN(DN-1)(22)313U,,:AA=f(y)(23),,,,,-:AA=e-KAy(24):KA.(12)(24)(21),:G=e-Kay1-yAy(25)yA,G,y:dGdy=-KAe-KAy1-yAy+e-KAyyAy2=0(26)e-KAy0,y0,:yA+KAyA-KAy2=0(27)y3=12yAy2Aö4+yAöKA(28)yyA,:y3=12yA+y2Aö4+yAöKA(29)d2Gdy20,y3:G3=e-KA12yA+y2Aö4+yAöKAõ1-yA12yA+y2Aö4+yAöKA(30),,,7496:Kuznets©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,U.4EKC411--,2--.ILornenz.A(x1,y1,0)LornenzOAP.III2--.,,.,,.,OQ45.IIIAB(x1,0,z1),,x1=z1.IIIIAB,IIC(0,y1,z1).ILornenz,,II-.EKC,Lornenz(2).4.2Lornenz3LornenzLornenz.3,OY,OZ.45OM,.ODM.D,,.OCM(411Lornenz),,.Gini,GiniGe:Ge=EE+F(31):E3,F.Gini,Ge,.,.3:LornenzGiniKuznets,Kuznets(EKC).84932©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.5Kuznets511.:,GDP;,GDP;,.:ln(lead)it=A+B1ln(GDPöP)it+B2ln2(GDPöP)it+Cln(density)it(32):(lead)itit;(GDPP)ititGDP;(density)itit.512.,8119951998,GDP1990.(1992)(1998),,(32),,:lnSO2=-27.0-0.612ln2(GDPöP)+12.23ln(GDPöP)(-9.22)(-10.19)(5.17)R2=0.963,Rv2=0.955,F=89.73(33):SO2.lnNO=18.7+0.522ln2(GDPöP)-7.19ln(GDPöP)+0.667ln(density)(7.52)(8.12)(-9.97)(10.77)R2=0.973,Rv2=0.932,F=37.16(34):NO.lnSPM=-82.3-0.111ln2(GDPöP)+7.08ln(GDPöP)+0.147ln(density)(-7.99)(-10.14)(9.66)(3.95)R2=0.998,Rv2=0.975,F=82.15(35):SPM.lnDUST=-37.9-0.833ln2(GDPöP)+35.0ln(GDPöP)(-9.12)(-7.07)(8.43)R2=0.960,Rv2=0.947,F=93.72(36):DUST.513(33)(36)2.2:,,U.U,,,.,,90%(,1998)..,,;,,U:,U,,9496:Kuznets©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,.,U,,,,.2KuznetsGDP(1985)SO221,000,942NOx1,366Kuznets,USPM5,367,610DUST405.11(,2001;2002;Fan,2000).,.KarenPolenske.,.,.,.:[1].[M].:,1999.[2].U[J].,1994,(5):5559.[3].[M].:,2002.[4].[C].,2001.[5],,,.[J].,2001,21(5):7581.[6],,.[J].,2000,19(5):3035.[7].:[M].:,1998.[8].-[M].:,1992.[9].,19962001.[10].,19962001.[11]FanJ.EnvironmentalKuznetscurveanalysisanditsapplicationsinChinesecities[J].InternationalJournalofDevelopmentPlanningLiterature,2000,15(3):22736.[12]GrossmanG,KruegerA.Economicgrowthandenvironment[J].QuarterlyJournalEconomics,1995,110(2):353377.[13]HiltonFGH,LevinsonA.FactoringtheenvironmentalKuznetsCurve:evidencefromautomotiveemissions[J].JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement,1998,35:12641.[14]Holtz2EakinD,SeldenT.Stockingthefires?CO2emissionsandeconomicgrowth[J].JournalofPublicEconomics,1995,57(1):85101.[15]KuznetsS.Economicgrowthandincomeinequality[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1955,45(1):128.[16]SeldenT,SongD.Environmentalqualityanddevelopment:IsthereaKuznetscurveforairpollutionemission05932©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[J].JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement,1994,35:12641.[17]ShaficN,BandyopadhyayS.Economicgrowthandenvironmentalquality:Timeseriesandcross2sectionevidence[J].WorldBankPolicyResearchWorkingPaper#WPS904,TheWorldBank,Washington,DC,1992.StudiesandApplicationsofEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve(EKC)FANJin1,HUHan2hui2(1.InstituteofInformationTechnology,YangzhouUniversity,225009,China)(2.ResearchCenterofGroupEconomyandIndustrialEconomy,SoutheastUniversity,Nanjing210096,China)Abstract:ThispapersurveysstudiesofEKC,andmakesitsmathematicaldeduction.Intheend,thepaperbuildsupairpollutionEKCmodelofChinesecities.Keywords:environmentalkuznetscurve(EKC);environmentalGinicoefficient;ChinesecitiesEKC1596:Kuznets©19