文化折扣与跨文化预测_以美国电影在香港的票房绩效为例

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:LEELapFungFrancis(1975),,,,:(1976),,,,JournalofMediaEconomics,2006,19(4):259278.:167423180(2008)0120243210:FrancisL.F.Lee12(1.;2.310027):,,19892004,,,,:;;:G114:ACulturalDiscountandCross-CulturalPredictability:ExamingtheBoxOfficePerformanceofAmericanMoviesinHongKongWrittenbyFrancisL.F.Lee(HongKong)TranslatedbyWangJianlinAbstract:Mediastudeshavesuggestedthatamediaproducttravellingacrosscultureswouldbereceivedinthelocalllyspecificways.Thisstudyarguesthatculturaldiscountandcross-culturepredictabilityoffinanciallyperformanceare2quantitativemanifestationsoflocalreception.Thelossofvalueandperformancepredictabilityconstitutesaproblemformediaproducers,whereasuniversalizingthemediaproductisapossiblyusefulstratgytohandlesuchproblems.Thisarticleanalyzesboxofficefiguresfrom1989to2004toexaminewhetherHolllywoodmoviesofdifferentgenresaremoreorlesssubjecttoculturaldiscountandlackofpredictabilitywhentheytraveltoHongKong.Theresultsshowthatcomediesarehighlyparticularisticandthatsciencefictionisapparentlythemostuniversal.Mixedresultsareobtainedforothermoviegenres.Keywords:CulturalDiscount;Cross-culturalPredictability;BoxOfficePerformance2008711StudiesinCulture&ArtJuly,2008Vol11No11©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1]21,MillerGovilMcMurrieMaxwell[2]340%60%Scott[3],20025813%,6418%,8715%,,GDP,[4][5][6][7],,,[8],(localreception)[9][10],,,:,,,[11],,,,,,,??,,,,25,[9][10][12][13],,,,HoskinsMirus[11]:,,;,Wildman,,,Wildman,,,,HoskinsMirus,,,,,[14],4421©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[15],[16],[17],[2][3],,:,,1994,,,,(culturalspecificity),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27],,[28],,,?Hoskins[29][17][11],,,,115,1500,,(Relativeculturaldiscount),542,HoskinsMirus[11],1FrancisL1F1Lee::©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,0170,,,,,,(genre),genre[19][21],,,,[30],,,,,,,,Hennig-Thrau[28],,,,,:1:?,?2:?,,?,,2080,,[31],,,,,[32]9,208090,[32]82832090,,[11][14],,1991134,200377,199212,19993145[32]7,,C1W1Chan[32],2090,Chan11989200410100208090,,21,1010040%,(1),,10100,,6421©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(inHongKongDollars)19891145(IndianaJonesandtheLastCrusade)9,080,8071919902193(Ghost)10,951,4591719911189(Terminator2)7,287,71813199201413(BasicInstinct)9,199,4771419931211(JurassicPark)12,707,1191619943202(Speed)14,201,8421819953355(DieHardWithaVengeance)11,930,5561319965482(IndependenceDay)9,769,0551219975451(Titanic)12,800,9361219986543(TomorrowNeverDies)8,976,2201319993463(TheMurnmy)8,053,3051320004521(MissionImpossible2)9,150,1691820014512(HarryPotterandtheSorcererpsStone)8,975,8861320026462(HarryPotterandtheChambersofSeorets)8,354,8391520034511(LordoftheRings)7,319,7391020044462(TheDayAfterTomorrow)8,167,96516(:10,100100),,,100,19892004,:,:,,,:,(CategoryI),:(Category),:,::,100,,2090100,4,300400;2000,4,100200,()16580,100,1,199420742http:PP::©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[30]2TABLE2BoxOfficeRatiosforMoviesofDifferentGenresGenreBelongtotheGenreNotBelongtotheGenretComedy(N=204)1616212119-41013Action(N=239)111781511231393Thriller(N=252)111901511631423Romnance(N=99)1411613166-0139Sciencefiction(N=97)91541415961103Adventure(N=126)13122131890163Family(N=69)1414713165-0154Drama(N=249)13118141171101Horror(N=85)11179141081166Note.Entriesareboxofficeratio:U.S.boxoflicePHomg.Kongboxoffice.Nreferstonumberofmoviesbelongingtothatgenre3p1001(:t)3,,,,2,9766%(64),4843614%,,2,(),,,1,2,,:,,,P[33],(endogenousvariables),8421©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(three2stageleastsquareregression),(ordianaryleastsquareregression),,,,(endogeneity),,31,19892004,(),,(),,,,3,2,3TABLE3RegressionAnalysisofBoxOfficeinHongKongVariableDependentVariable:HongKongBoxOffice(inHkÃ11000)Model1Time2RelatedFactorsAddedUnstandardizedStandandizedUnstandardizedStandandizedConstant817589153333622291733U1S1boxoffice0108533316401057333143Year-40110333-117-1841033-108CategoryI-2715133-110-189814-107CategoryIII-52012101-109613-102Comedy-21661433-111-1487163-107Action1797113109289810333115Thriller3261510267515103Romance11471410410713100Sci2fi202017310819261933107Adventure13711810661618103Family30461131102480133108Drame50215103-104515-105Horror7591810387918103No1ofweeks135217333142Christmas2021143106NewYear30311333110Note.N=580.Model1AdjustedR2=4513%333;Model2AdjustedR2=6016%333.U1S1boxofficeisinU.S.Ã1,000.3p105133p1011333p10011[1()()],,,,,,942,,,3,,,,,3,,,,,,,,