城市土地储备制度对房地产市场价格影响研究

摘要城市土地储备制度作为一种全新的制度，最初的功能明确定位在垄断城市土地一级市场、调控土地价格、为居民提供可负担的住房上。然而从实际情况看来，土地价格从2002年开始一路走高，伴随着土地价格的上涨，房价也连续创出新高，高地价和高房价引起有关利益群体的异议和不满，从而影响了城市土地储备制度的运作、发展和规范。在这样的背景下，国内许多学者进行了不同的分析和研究，大家的观点不尽相同，甚至截然相反。大家都在思索，土地储备给城市政府、社会、房地产市场带来了什么，是巨额的土地收益，还是可怕的房地产泡沫。房地产行业是我国国民经济的支柱产业，是未来中国经济增长的动力之一，而土地储备制度是调控房地产市场的有效手段。如何通过了解土地储备制度对房地产市场价格的影响机制，确保土地储备制度的功能有效发挥，已成为当前中国经济发展中亟待研究解决的重大课题。本文以城市土地储备制度对房地产市场影响的传导顺序为主线，首先分析了土地储备制度对土地价格的影响，然后根据地价与房价的关系，间接来分析土地储备制度对房价的影响。在总结和借鉴前人理论并结合我国现状的基础上，本文利用1998年-2008年的季度数据，对城市土地储备制度对房地产市场价格的影响进行实证研究。实证结果表明，城市土地储备制度的建立直接带动了土地价格的上涨，虽然土地价格是房价的组成部分，但是地价和房价的上涨不存在因果关系，房价受多种因素的影响，地价只是其中的一个因素。本文在实证结果的基础上，提出了增加土地储备资金来源，控制土地投放量，以及创新土地出让方式，并建议建立土地储备评价制度和地产泡沫的预警机制，以期充分发挥土地储备制度对房地产市场的调控功能。关键词：土地储备制度；房价；地价AbstractAsanewsystem,thelandreservesystemhaveaclearpostioningonmonopolyinglandmarket,controllingthelandprices,providingresidentswithaffordablehousing.Actually,thelandpriceshavebeenrising,from2002tonow,andthehousingpricesalsoareachievingnewhigh.Thehighlandandhousingpricesleadtointerestgroups’objectionsanddissatisfaction,andaffecttheoperation,developmentandnormsofthecity’slandreservesystem.Inthiscontext,manydomesticscholarsresearchthecity’slandreservesystem,andthinkwhatitgiveus,ahugeamountoflandrevenueortheterriblerealestatebubble.TherealestateindustryisapillarindustryofChina'snationaleconomy,whichisoneofthedrivingforcesinthefuture.Thelandreservesystemisaneffectivemeanstoregulatetherealestatemarket.Howtobetterunderstandingthepricemechanismsimpactofthelandreservesystemontherealestatemarket,ensurethatthelandreservesystemfunctionseffective,ithasbecomeamajorissuesintheeconomicdevelopment.Inthispaper,themainlineisconductionimpactofthecity’slandreservesystemontherealestatemarket.Firstofall,analyzetheimpactofthecity’slandreservesystemonthelandprices,then,Accordingtotherelationbetweenthelandandhousingprices,indirectlyanalyzetheimpactofthecity’slandreservesystemonhousingprices.OnthebasisofSumingupandlearningpredecessors’stheoryandthestatusquoofourcountry,thispaperuses1998-2008yearsofquarterlydatatoanalyzetheimpactofthelandreservesystemonthepriceofrealestatemarket.Empiricalresultsshowthatthecity'slandreservesystemhasadirectimpactonlandprices,althoughthepriceoflandisanintegralpartofhousingprices,butthereisnocausalrelationshipbetweentherisinghousingandlandprices,thehousingpricesinfluencedbymanyfactors,thelandpricesisoneofthefactors.Onthebasisofempiricalresults,thispaperpresentsanumberofpolicyrecommendationstobetteritsfunctionofregulatingtherealestatemarket,suchasincreasingresourseofthefunf,innovationofsellingtheland,buildingevaluationoflandreservesystemandtherealestatebubbleoftheearlywarningmechanism.Keyword:thelandreservesystem;thehousingprices;thelandprices目录第1章绪论............................................................................................................................11.1选题的背景及意义........................................................................................................11.2国内外研究现状............................................................................................................21.2.1国外研究现状.........................................................................................................21.2.2国内研究现状.........................................................................................................31.2.3文献综述总结.........................................................................................................41.3研究思路、研究方法和结构安排................................................................................51.3.1研究思路.................................................................................................................51.3.2研究方法.................................................................................................................51.3.3结构安排.................................................................................................................51.4创新之处........................................................................................................................6第2章城市土地储备制度一般概述....................................................................................72.1城市土地储备制度的内涵及其特征............................................................................72.1.1城市土地储备制度的内涵.....................................................................................72.1.2城市土地储备制度的特征.....................................................................................82.2城市土地储备制度的理论基础与功能........................................................................92.2.1城市土地储备制度的理论基础.............................................................................92.2.2城市土地储备制度的功能...................................................................................112.3城市土地储备制度运作程序......................................................................................122.3.1土地收购...............................................................................................................132.3.2土地储备.........................................................................