房地产专业速成培训手册四

：1000-8462（2009）09-1512-06、100871—。1997—2005。。—、、。F293.3AFDI200260%[1-2]。1974[3]198019821141987245[4]。。200614797642.2935.68%33.15%199620.68%26.82%。2006294.6945.88%。FDI。、、、Gaedeke[5]、、Gerlowski[6]、、Enderwick[7]Bagchi-Sen[8]、。、、、、、[9-11]。。、、《》《》《》、《》、《》。1[12-13]Ford[14]、。、Culem[15]Bagchi-SenWheeler[16]Gerlowski[6]。—、2009-04-18；2009-08-2040871065。299Vol.29No.920099ECONOMICGEOGRAPHYSep.20099、1513[17]。MoshirianPham[18]。、、、、。。。。、“”、、、[19]。。2、1。1990。、。1990—2001。、、、。2001。WTO《》。33.1①1200619422.921986—200630.01%。。、①1990。、。②1991—1997。1990《》。19921993152.11%149.98%FDI66.19%102.90%。③1997—2001。1997。④2002。WTO3—5、200576.80%22.09%FDI55.21%。[20]。①=+。①Gi=12n2μjΣkΣsij-siksijsikijkμn。15142911984—2006Fig.1ThedevelopmentofforeignrealestateinvestmentinChina(1984—2006)。199716.38%15.77%。1997。20052。3.219972005①1Tab.1ThepoliciesofforeignrealestateinvestmentinChina。《》《、、、》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》《》……《》《》《》《》《》《》30、、、、、、、。“”、、、WTO、、、。、、、197919801990199419951995199720001998199920012002200220032006200721997—2005Fig.2ThestructureofforeignrealestateinvestmentinChina。0.700.600.620.49、、、、199755.78%16.31%20.94%18.54%200537.96%11.94%9.42%16.60%3。2005、、、、、3%3%。9、、LQ1①14a、、、、、LQ2②14b。、、、。。19905《》、。。[21]、[22]200521.33%11.72%、15.93%13.09%9.49%7.18%。3Fig.3ProvincialDistributionofforeignrealestateinvestmentinChina。4Fig.4LocationQuotientofforeignrealestateinvestmentinChina。、、。199790%200775%199820.4%8.8%5。44.11997—2005iyiλiλiXProbYi=yi=e-λiλiyiyiyi=012…lnλi=β'Xi9、1515①LQ1=REFDIini=1ΣREFDIiFDIini=1ΣFDIiREFDIiiFDIii。。②LQ2=REFIini=1ΣREFIiREIini=1ΣREIiFREIiiREIii。LQ2。5Fig.5RegionaldistributionofFDIinrealestatedevelopmentinChinaanditsHerfindalindex。。HpriceLprice。POP。FDI。CONVE、ZPG。LTFE。LOAN,。4.20.5,。3。Hprice2Tab.2DescriptionofdependentandindependentvariablesHprice+Lprice/)-POP+FDI+CONVE/+ZPG+LTFELOAN+3Tab.3RegressionresultsHprice0.665***Lprice-0.003**POP0.280***FDI0.503***CONVEY0.009***ZPG0.008***LTFE-0.003***LOAN-0.008***Constant-10.996***Loglikelihood-5175.9483LR29227.67PseudoR20.7385Observations210*、**、***10%、5%1%。。Lprice。。FDI、、。。CONVEYZPGLTFE。。LOAN151629。5、、。。、、。—、。。、。。—、、。[1]DickenP.Globalshift———reshpingtheglobaleconomicmapin21stcentury(4thededition)[M].NewYorkTheGuilfordPress2003.[2]UnitedNations.Worldinvestmentreport2004Theshifttowardsservices[M].NewYorkandGeneva2004.[3]ZhuJSimL&ZhangX.GlobalrealestateinvestmentsandlocalculturalcapitalinthemakingofShanghai’snewofficelocations[J].HabitatInternational200630462-481.[4]GrahamE.andKrugmanP.ForeigndirectinvestmentintheUnitedStates[M].WashingtonD.CInstituteforInternationalEconomics1989.[5]GaedekeR.M..SelectedU.S.multinationalservicefirmsinpers-pective[J].JournalofInternationalBusinessStudies1973Fall61-66.[6]GerlowskiD.A.FungH.andFordD.TheLocationofForeignDirectInvestmentforU.S.RealEstateAnEmpiricalAnalysis[J].LandEconomics199470(3)286-293.[7]EnderwickP.MultinationalServiceFirms[M].LondonRout-ledge1989.[8]Bagchi-SenS.FDIinUSProducerServicesATemporalAnalysisofForeignDirectInvestmentintheFinanceInsuranceandRealEstateSectors[J].RegionalStudies199529(2)159-170.[9]WuX.andStrangeR.Thelocationofforeigninsurancecom-paniesinChina[J].InternationalBusinessReview20009383-398.[10]HongJ.FirmspecificeffectsonlocationdecisionsofforeigndirectinvestmentinChina’slogisticsindustry[J].RegionalStud-ies2007c41(5)1-11.[11]HeC.andFuR.ForeignBankinginChinaAStudyof279BranchUnitsin32Cities[J].EurasianGeographyandEcono-mics200849457-480.[12]RossS.A.andWebbJ.R.Diversificationandriskininterna-tionalrealpropertyinvestmentsanempiricalstudy[J].Interna-tionalPropertyInvestmentJournal19852(3)359-377.[13]JiangD.ChenJ.andIsaacD.TheeffectofforeigninvestmentontherealestateindustryinChina[J].UrbanStudies1998352101-2110.[14]Ford.DA.FungHG.DanielAG.FactorsAffectingForeignInvestorChoiceinTypesofU.S.RealEstate[J].JournalofRealEstateResearch199816(1)99-113.[15]CulemC.G..Thelocationaldeterminantsofdirectinvestmentsamongindustrializedcountries[J].Eur.Econ.Rev.198832885-904.[16]Bagchi-senSharmistha&JamesO.Wheeler.Aspatialandtem-poralmodelofforeigndirectinvestmentintheUnitedStates[J].EconomicGeography198965(2)113-129.[17]EsperancaJP&GulamhussenMB.(Re)Testingthe“FollowtheCustomer”HypothesisinMultinationalBankExpansion[J].JournalofMultinationalFinancialManagement200111281-293.[18]MoshirianF.andPhamT.DeterminantsofUSinvestmentinrealestateabroad[J].JournalofMultinationalFinancialManage-ment20001063-72.[19]CavesR.InternationalCorporationsTheIndustrialEconomicsofForeignInvestment[J].Economica(NewSeries),197138(149):1-27.[20].[J].2005275(9)64-68.[21]HinesM.A.Guidetointernationalrealestateinvestment[M].NewYorkQuorumBooks1988.[22]LeungC.K.LocationalcharacteristicsofforeignequityjointventureinvestmentinChina1979-1985[J].ProfessionalGeogra-pher199042(4)403-421.15299、1517SPATIO-TEMPORALVARIABILITYOFLANDUSECHANGEDRIVINGFORCESINFOSHANCITYBASEDONGEOSTATISTICSGUOCheng-xuan，XUSong-jun，WUXi-bo(CollegeofGeographyScience,SouthChinaNormalUniversity，Guangzhou510631，Guangdong，China)Abstract:Thestudyofspatio-temporalvariabilityofdrivingforcesoflandusechangeismuchhelpfultomakecleari