Shanghai_Automotive_and_Die_Casting_Exhibition

StateoftheIndustryReportandResearch&DevelopmentShanghaiAutomotiveandDieCastingExhibitionOctober31,2013PresentedbySteveUdvardyGDPGrowthisSlowandGettingSlowerProblematicLargeImpactonChinaEconomistsPredictTepidGrowthIn201344professionaleconomicforecasters,allmembersoftheNationalAssociationofBusinessEconomistspredictthatnextyearwillhaveonlytepidgrowth.Theeconomistshaveprettymuchdiscountedallthepoliticalrhetoricaboutwhatwillhappentotheeconomyifthe'Bush-erataxcuts'arenotrenewed....Instead,theeconomistsinthesurveysaythedominantforcebehindtheUSeconomywillbetheslowingeconomiesinChinaandEurope.GrowthinRecoveryPeriods:5-6%PresidentObama'stoughrestrictionsonoilandgasdevelopmentintheGulf,offtheAtlanticandPacificCoastsandinAlaskadonotreduceU.S.petroleumconsumptionbutmerelyshiftexplorationandproductiontocostlierandriskierlocationsabroad.EPAlimitsonCO2emissionsencouragemanufacturerstolocateincountrieswheresimilarregulationsdonotapply.BothkillU.S.jobswithoutanenvironmentalbenefit.ObamasPoliciesAreStuntingEconomicExpansionDifficultDecisionstobeMade(Energy,Trade,Tax)Unnecessaryoutsourcinghalfthe$600BtradedeficitBusinessesUnderstandtheEconomicUncertaintyCreatedbyFederalPoliciesandareHoldingMoneyontheSidelines$869BMega-Corps:$1.73Tincash$500Bcouldadd2.4Mjobsand1+%GDPRobertPollin|JamesHeintz|HeidiGarrett-Peltier|JeannetteWicks-Lim|12/5/2011Theauthorsshowthatsince2009,U.S.commercialbanksandlargenonfinancialcorporationshavebeencarryinghugecashhoardsandotherliquidassets,totaling$1.4trillion.Smallbusinesses,bycontrast,havebeenlockedoutofcreditmarkets.Theauthorsexaminetheimpactonjobcreationofmobilizingtheseexcessliquidassetsintoproductiveinvestments,findingthatU.S.employmentcouldexpandbyabout19millionjobsbytheendof2014,withunemploymentfallingbelow5percent.Thepaperdiscussespoliciestotransformthesehoardsintojob-generatinginvestments,bothforthenationaleconomyand,specifically,theLosAngelesandSeattleregions19MillionJobsForU.S.Workers:TheImpactOfChanneling$1.4TrillionInExcessLiquidAssetHoldingsIntoProductiveInvestmentsDiecasterscancreatejobsbut&ManufacturingCapacityUtilizationTrendingDownwardU.S.GDPBelow2%forallof2012GrowingGDPisPertinenttoReducingUnemploymentWhatShouldbeWorkedonattheFederalLevelCreateScientificRequirementsforEPARegulationsImplementanEnergyPolicythatMakesUsOilIndependentBalanceOurTradeEliminateCorporateTaxGetoutoftheWayofBusinessandGiveBusinesstheConfidencetoSpendDomesticallyThisCouldAdd3%toOurGDPU.S.is4thinTonsofMetalCastingsProduced2011DataHPDCis70-75%ofNon-ferrousCastingsinU.S.MillionTonnesProducedin2010MillionTonnesProducedin2011FacilitiesTonnesProduction/Facility(2010)TonnesProduction/Facility(2011)China2.122.917000303416EuropeanUnion1.141.2171016061704Germany0.390.4219020532211Italy0.40.4121019051952France0.120.138015001625Other0.230.2523010001087NorthAmerica1.031.1454518902092UnitedStates0.780.8845017331956Canada0.120.135521822364Mexico0.110.134027503250India0.470.5239012051333Japan0.961.0161015741656Brazil0.210.2113016151615Russia0.230.18580397310OtherAsia0.440.481090404440Korea0.240.26600400433EasternEurope0.230.25500460500AllOther0.510.53900567589Total7.278.4412500582675ChinaLeadsinDCProduction-NorthAmericaLeadsinProductivityWorldwideAutomotiveProduction107Mby2020Forecast:200/1000by2020DoingtheMathAutoDCAluminumcontenttogrowfrom114#in2012toover143#in2020.Autoproductionin2020=107.1M107.1M*143=15.9Billionpoundsofaluminumdiecastingsin2020justforautomobiles!!TheU.S.produced1.4Billionpoundsin2012forautomotiveuse.ThisdoesntincludeanyStructuralConversions.MagnesiumisChallengingintheU.S.ConsumptionWillSkyrocketWorldwideasGDPPerCapitaImproves2006201520202025Ethiopia00.740.780.82Nigeria0.080.80.880.98Bangladesh0.161.071.21.4Pakistan0.211.121.241.4Philippines0.282.342.773.42India0.971.822.64.17Vietnam1.031.712.423.84Indonesia1.241.72.022.48Egypt1.481.882.333.02Iran2.594.87.0510.9Brazil5.454.866.147.94Turkey5.886.8611.518.6Thailand6.296.4410.316.3China6.638.8620.928.7Mexico6.756.758.5811.2Russia7.3716.224.928.7France14.9228.829.129.3Japan26.612929.329.4UnitedStates30.7429.429.429.4Germany31.7828.929.229.3WorldTotal(000metrictons)43,00058,70091,900119,000PerCapitaAluminumConsumptionGrowthofTop20PopulatedCountries(Kg/Person/Year)Doubleby2025!PerCapitaConsumptionofAluminumAgriculturalEquipmentDemandSignificantGrowthSeenWorldwideOutputMustDoubleby2050JohnDeereSpendsMillionsonNon-ferrousCastingsWhereistheUnitedStatesHeadingin2013?USDieCastingPlantsGeographicDistributionIndustryEmploymentDataUnemployment(%)DieCastingIndustryEmploymentDieCastingIndustryEmploymentVsProductivityMachineSize&DistributionMachinesVersusManufacturingCapacityLightWeightVehicleSalesWeloweredourforecastbecauseofachangefromthesignificanteconomicgrowthinthefirsthalftoaflattergrowthinthesecondhalf,Thereisalevelofuncertaintyamongconsumers,Schustersaid,addingthe2013autosalesforecastwasalsoloweredbecauseheexpectsthelevelofuncertaintytoextendintonextyear.McAlindenandtheCenterforAutomotiveResearch'slong-rangeforecastHousingStartsBecomingEncouraging!StillaLongW