chap011CreditAnalysis(财务报表分析,台湾中兴大学)

11CHAPTERCreditAnalysisMcGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.CompanyLiquidityreferstotheabilitytomeetshort-termobligationsLiquidityistheabilitytoconvertassetsintocashortoobtaincashShorttermisthelongerofone-yearorthecompanyoperatingcycleLiquidityandWorkingCapitalBasicsLiquidityisamatterofdegreeLackofliquiditycanlimit•Advantagesoffavorablediscounts•Profitableopportunities•Managementactions•CoverageofcurrentobligationsLiquidityandWorkingCapitalBasicsSevereilliquidityoftenprecedes•Lowerprofitability•Restrictedopportunities•Lossofownercontrol•Lossofcapitalinvestment•InsolvencyandbankruptcyLiquidityandWorkingCapitalBasicsCurrentassetsarecashandotherassetsreasonablyexpectedtobe(1)realizedincash,or(2)soldorconsumed,duringthelongerofone-yearorthecompany’soperatingcycleCurrentassetsinclude:Cash--ultimateliquidassetCashequivalents--temporaryinvestmentsofexcesscashMarketablesecurities--debtorequitysecuritiesheldass-tinvestmentsAccountsreceivable--mountsduefromcreditsalesInventories--itemsheldforsaleinthenormalcourseofbusinessPrepaidexpenses--advancepaymentsforservicesandsuppliesLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentAssetsClassificationascurrentassetdependson:1.Manament’sintent2.IndustrypracticeAnalysismustassessthisclassification1.Isclassificationascurrentassetappropriate?2.Ifnot,thenadjustaccountsandamountsamongcurrentandnoncurrentLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentAssetsBalanceSheetClassificationascurrentliabilitydependson:1.Manament’sintent2.IndustrypracticeAnalysismustassessthisclassification1.Isclassificationascurrentliabilityappropriate?2.Ifnot,thenadjustaccountsandamountsamongcurrentandnoncurrent3.Arecurrentliabilitiesreported?4.Ifnot,thenadjustaccountsfortheseamounts—potentialexamples:•Contingentliabilitiesassociatedwithloanguarantees•Futureminimumrentalpaymentsundernoncancelableoperatingleases•Progresspaymentsundercontracts•Currentdeferredtaxliabilities(andassets)LiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentLiabilitiesWorkingcapitalisdefinedastheexcessofcurrentassetsovercurrentliabilitiesWidelyusedmeasureofshort-termliquidityDeficientwhencurrentliabilitiesexceedcurrentassetsInsurpluswhencurrentassetsexceedcurrentliabilitiesAmarginofsafetyforcreditorsAliquidreservetomeetcontingenciesanduncertaintiesAconstraintfortechnicaldefaultinmanydebtagreementsLiquidityandWorkingCapitalWorkingCapitalWorkingcapitalmorerelevantwhenrelatedtootherkeyvariablessuchasSalesTotalassetsWorkingcapitalisoflimitedvalueasanabsoluteamountLiquidityandWorkingCapitalWorkingCapitalCurrentRatioReflectson:•Currentliabilitycoverage--assuranceincoveringcurrentliabilities•Bufferagainstlosses--marginofsafetyforshrinkageinnoncashcurrentassets•Reserveofliquidfunds--marginofsafetyagainstuncertaintiesandshockstocashflowsLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatiosliabilitieCurrentassetsCurrent=ratioCurrentCurrentRatio—Limitations:Ifliquidityistheabilitytomeetcashoutflowswithadequatecashinflows,thendoesthecurrentratio:Measureandpredictthepatternoffuturecashinflowsandoutflows?Measuretheadequacyoffuturecashinflowstooutflows?AnswerisgenerallynotoboththesequestionsCurrentratioIsastaticmeasureDoesnothaveacausalrelationtofuturecashinflowsLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatioCurrentRatio—LimitationsinNumeratorAdjustmentsoftenneededtocountervariouslimitationssuchasFailuretoreflectopenlinesofcreditAdjustsecurities’valuationsincethebalancesheetdateReflectrevolvingnatureofaccountsreceivableRecognizeprofitmarginininventoryAdjustinventoryvaluestomarketRemovedeferredchargesofdubiousliquidityfromprepaidexpensesLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatioThreeimportantqualifications1.Liquiditydependstoalargeextentonprospectivecashflows2.Nodirectrelationbetweenworkingcapitalaccountbalancesandpatternsoffuturecashflows3.Managerialpoliciesaredirectedprimarilyatefficientandprofitableassetutilizationandsecondlyatliquidity4.Cashflowforecastsandproformafinancialstatementsarepreferredoverthecurrentratioforliquidityandsolvencyanalysis5.CurrentratioisastaticmeasureoftheabilityofcurrentassetstosatisfycurrentliabilitiesLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatioTwoimportantelementsareintegraltouseofthecurrentratio1.Qualityofbothcurrentassetsandcurrentliabilities2.TurnoverrateofbothcurrentassetsandcurrentliabilitiesLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatioComparativeAnalysisTwousefultoolsinanalyzingthetrendinthecurrentratioTrendanalysis--componentsofworkingcapitalandthecurrentratioareconvertedtoindexesandexaminedovertimeCommon-sizeanalysis--compositionofcurrentassetsisexaminedovertimeLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatio-ApplicationsRatioManagement(windowdressing)Examplesare:•Pressthecollectionofreceivablesatyear-end•Callinadvancestoofficersfortemporaryrepayment•Reduceinventorybelownormallevels•DelaynormalpurchasesProceedsfromtheseactivitiesarethenusedtopayoffcurrentliabilitiesLiquidityandWorkingCapitalCurrentRatio-ApplicationsRuleofThumbAnalysis(2:1)2:1superiorcoverageofcurrentliabilities(butnottoohigh,suggestinginefficientuseofresourcesandreducedreturns)2:1defici