××咨询－财务服务的战略柔性

DeloitteResearch1633BroadwayNewYork,NewYork10019USADeloitteResearchDeloitteResearch1633BroadwayNewYork,NewYork10019USAAfinancialservicesindustrystudybyDeloitteConsultingandDeloitte&ToucheStrategicFlexibilityintheFINANCIALSERVICESINDUSTRYCreatingcompetitiveadvantageoutofcompetitiveturbulenceForFurtherInformation,PleaseContact:AMERICASKATHRYNHAYLEYTel:+1.646.348.4344Email:[e-mail]ETel:+852.2852.6391Email:[e-mail]:+44.20.7303.7951Email:[e-mail]:+1.312.374.3228Email:[e-mail]OITTE&TOUCHEAMERICASBILLFREDATel:+1.212.436.6762Email:[e-mail]OTel:+81.3.3451.0403Email:[e-mail]el:+49.69.75695.111Email:[e-mail]l:+1.416.601.6181Email:[e-mail]©2001DeloitteConsultingandDeloitte&ToucheLLP.Allrightsreserved.ISBN1-892383-86-1125735Formulatingandimplementingstrategyhasbeenabouttakingthelongview.Buthowcanoneplanforafuturethatcannotbeaccuratelyforecast?Inthisreport,weprovideaframework—StrategicFlexibility—thatisdesignedtoenableorganizationstoprepareforwhattheycannotpredict.Drawingonyearsofresearch,wepresenthereafinancialservicesindustryperspectiveonhowbesttocopewithandultimatelyexploituncertaintyforcompetitiveadvantage.DeloitteResearch–StrategicFlexibilityintheFinancialServicesIndustryCONTENTSExecutiveSummary.........................................................2UncertaintyintheFinancialServicesIndustry...................5RespondingtoUncertainty...............................................8TheStrategicFlexibilityFramework...............................13ImplementingStrategicFlexibility..................................27Conclusions...................................................................31Endnotes......................................................................32AboutDeloitteResearch.................................................33AboutDeloitteConsultingandDeloitte&Touche..............34InsetsTheGenesisoftheStrategicFlexibilityFramework...................6M&AStrategiesintheFinancialServicesIndustry..................11ScenariosfortheFinancialServicesIndustry..........................16ValuingFlexibility..................................................................22Royal&SunAlliance:StrategicFlexibilityCaseStudy.............26ProgramManagementandStrategicFlexibility.....................28Thecomplexityofthefinancialservicesindustrycanoverwhelmanystrategist.Companiesinthefinancialservicesindustry(FSI)mustcopewithmultipledimensionsofchangeinvolvingregulation,technology,globalization,newcompetitorsandbusinessmodels,capitalmarketpressures,andconstantlychangingcustomerdemands.Worse,onallofthesedimensionsitisnotmerelytheircomplexitythatprovesdaunting,buttheuncertaintysurroundingthem.Howwillregulatorypolicychange,andwhatwilltheimplicationsofthosechangesbe?Whatnewtechnologieswillemergeandhowwilltheyaffectexistingbusinessmodels?Howwillthecapitalmarketsreacttonewstrategicinitiatives,andwhatwillthatreactionmeanwhenitcomestimetomakethenextacquisition?Moreover,theuncertaintyitselfconcernstwoissues:whatwillhappen,andwhenitwillhappen.Existingtoolsforstrategyformulationandimplementationareoflimitedhelpbecausetheyarepremisedeitheronarelativelystablefutureorontheabilitytomakeroughlyaccuratepredictionsofwhatthefuturewillhold.Forexample,traditionalindustryanalysispresupposesthatthestructureofanindustrywillremainstablelongenoughformeaningfulactiontobetaken.However,whenitcantakeonlymonthsfortheindustrytochangesignificantly,pursuingaparticularcourseofaction–forexample,anacquisition–thatisgearedtotheneedsoftoday’sindustrystructureseemsfoolhardy.ExecutiveSummaryTrustworthypredictionswouldhelp,butfewstrategistshavedemonstratedtheabilitytorepeatedlyandpreciselyforetellwhatliesoverthehorizon.WhetheritisThomasJ.WatsonJr.’swell-knownforecastofaworldmarketforfivecomputersorthemorerecentand(apparently)equallyinaccuratebullishnessofthecapitalmarketsregardingInternetstocks,therearefarmoreexamplesoffailedattemptsatforecastingthansuccessfulones.TheFrenchabsurdistplaywrightEugeneIonescowasrightwhenhesaid,“onecanonlypredicteventsaftertheyhaveoccurred.”Still,theuncertaintythatplaguessomeofthemostimportantquestionsfacingthefinancialservicesindustrydoesnotrelieveexecutivesoftheneedtothinkstrategicallyortomakedecisionsthatwillmovetheirorganizationsforward.WhatFSIdecisionmakersneedisanewsetofstrategicplanningandfinancialevaluationtoolsthataredesignedspecificallytocopewithuncertainty.Wepresentjustsuchasetoftoolsinthisreport.Specifically,bydrawingonyearsofresearchacrossarangeofindustrysettingsandcompetitivecontexts,wehavedevelopedapowerfulapproachtostrategyunderuncertaintyandorganizeditintoafour-phaseframework.StrategicFlexibilityprovidesarigorousyetadaptablemethodologythatwillhelpyouguideyourorganizationthroughuncertainandturbulentwaters.ThefigurebelowillustratesthefourphasesoftheStrategicFlexibilityframework.FIGURE1.STRATEGICFLEXIBIL