EIU经济学人－Foresight2020(99page

AreportfromtheEconomistIntelligenceUnitsponsoredbyCiscoSystemsEconomic,industryandcorporatetrends©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit20061Foresight2020Economic,industryandcorporatetrendsPreface2Executivesummary3Chapter1:Theworldeconomy6Chapter2:Industries22Automotive24Consumergoodsandretailing30Energy36Financialservices43Healthcareandpharmaceuticals50Manufacturing57Publicsector62Telecoms67Chapter3:Thecompany74AppendixI:Surveyresults86AppendixII:Methodologyforlong-termforecasts95Contents2©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit2006Foresight2020Economic,industryandcorporatetrendsInanageofuncertainty,peering15yearsintothefuturemayseemlikehubris.Butignoringlong-termtrends—demographic,economic,corporate—isanevenlessattractiveoption.Understandingthelong-termfutureisvitalinensuringthatstrategiesaresustainable,thatopportunitiesareidentifiedatanearlystageandthatchallengesareaddressedbeforetheybecomeinsurmountable.Thisreportassesseslikelychangestotheglobaleconomy,toeightmajorindustriesandtocorporatestructuresbetweennowand2020.Ourresearchdrewonthreemaininitiatives:●TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit’sproprietarylong-termeconomicforecastsfortheworld’smajoreconomies.●Awide-rangingonlinesurveyofseniorexecutivesfromaroundtheworldinNovember-December2005.Intotal,1,656executivestookpart.●Aseriesofin-depthinterviewswithexecutives,analystsandpolicymakersaroundtheworld.Wewouldliketothankalltheexecutiveswhoparticipatedinthesurveyandinterviewsfortheirtimeandinsights.CiscoSystemssponsoredthereport.WearegratefultotheCiscoteam,andtoKentonLewisandKathyBurrowsinparticular,fortheirsupportduringtheresearchprocess.AndrewPalmerwastheeditorofthereport.LazaKekicwrotethechapterontheworldeconomy.GraemeMaxton,DavidJacoby,GrahamRichardson,AvivaFreudmann,PaulKielstra,RaySmyth,BillMillarandJoanneTaaffewrotetheindustrysections.TomStandagecontributedtothechapteronthecompanyofthefuture.TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitbearssoleresponsibilityforthecontentofthisreport.TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit’seditorialteamexecutedtheonlinesurvey,conductedtheinterviewsandwrotethereport.Thefindingsandviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofthesponsor.March2006Preface©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit20063Foresight2020Economic,industryandcorporatetrendsExecutivesummaryAlotcanhappenin15years.Atthestartofthe1990s,Chinawaslargelyaplannedeconomy,andtheSovietUnionstillexisted.FewpeoplehadheardoftheInternetande-mailseemedclosertosciencefictionthanreality.Thenext15yearswillbringfurthermassivechangestotheshapeoftheworldeconomy,tothelandscapeofmajorindustriesandtotheworkingsofthecompany.ThemajorfindingsoftheForesight2020surveyaresummarisedoverleaf,buttheprincipaltrendsidentifiedinthisreportincludethefollowing:1Globalisation.It’stooearlytotalkofAsia’scentury,buttherewillbearedistributionofeconomicpower.Emergingmarkets,andChinaandIndiainparticular,willtakeagreatersliceoftheworldeconomy.Non-OECDmarketswillaccountforahighershareofrevenuegrowthbetweennowand2020thanOECDeconomies.Labour-intensiveproductionprocesseswillcontinuetoshifttolower-costeconomies,whichwillstillenjoyamassivewageadvantageoverdevelopedmarkets.Thepaceofglobalisationwillbearguablythecriticaldeterminantoftherateofworldeconomicgrowth.2Demographics.Populationshiftswillhaveasignificantimpactoneconomies,companiesandcustomers.ThefavourabledemographicprofileoftheUSwillhelptospurgrowth;ageingpopulationsinEuropewillinhibitit.Industrieswilltargetmoreproductsandservicesatageingpopulations,frominvestmentadvicetolow-cost,functionalcars.Workforcesinmorematuremarketswillbecomeolderandmorefemale.3Atomisation.Globalisationandnetworkingtechnologieswillenablefirmstousetheworldastheirsupplybasefortalentandmaterials.Processes,firms,customersandsupplychainswillfragmentascompaniesexpandoverseas,asworkflowstowhereitisbestdoneandasinformationdigitises.Asaresult,effectivecollaborationwillbecomemoreimportant.Theboundariesbetweendifferentfunctions,organisationsandevenindustrieswillblur.Dataformatsandtechnologieswillstandardise.4Personalisation.Priceandqualitywillmatterasmuchasever,butcustomersindevelopedanddevelopingmarketswillplacemoreemphasisonpersonalisation.Productsandserviceswillbecustomisable,leadingfirmstodesignproductsinamodularfashionand,inthecaseofmanufacturers,assembletheminresponsetospecificcustomerorders.Customersandsupplierswillbetreatedindifferentways,dependingontheirpersonalpreferencesandtheirimportancetothebusiness.5Knowledgemanagement.Runninganefficientorganisationisnoeasytaskbutitisunlikelyonitsowntoofferlastingcompetitiveadvantage.Productsaretooeasilycommoditised;automationofsimpleprocessesisincreasinglywidespread.Instead,thefocusofmanagementattentionwillbeontheareasofthebusiness,frominnovationtocustomerservice,wherepersonalchemistryorcreativeinsightmattermorethanrulesandprocesses.Improvingtheproductivityofknowledgeworkersthroughtechnology,trainingandorganisationalchangewillbethemajorboardroomchallengeofthenext15years.4©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit2006Foresight2020Economic,industryandcorporatetrendsAspartoftheresearchforthisreport,the