IMF高级宏观经济学研修班CT1405MMF-L08ManagingI

L-8PartII.ManagingCapitalFlowsinChinaPresenterRayBrooksJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.01ThistrainingmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.Outline•Whatwastheexperiencewithcapitalflows?•Howwerecapitalflowsmanagedinthepast?•Werecapitalcontrolseffective?•Whatwillhappentowithcapitalflowswithliberalization?•Experienceofliberalizationinothercountries•BenefitsandrisksofopeningthecapitalaccountinChina•StepstowardsuccessfulliberalizationinChinaChina’sExperience:Forexinflowsweresizable,butmainlyfromthecurrentaccountsurplus.-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012AspercentofGDPChina:CurrentAccountandOverallBalanceofPayments(aspercentofGDP)CurrentAccountBalanceOverallBalanceSources:InternationalFinancialStatisticsdatabase…thecapitalandfinancialaccountwasalsoinsurplusandvolatile.-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012AspercentofGDPChina:CapitalandFinancialBalance(aspercentofGDP)CapitalandFianancialA/CSources:InternationalFinancialStatisticsdatabaseFDIflowswerelarge-60612-1000100200200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011InwardOutwardChina:ForeignDirectInvestmentInward(percentworldtotal,RHS)Outward(percentworldtotal,RHS)USDbillionPercentofworldtotalFDIandotherCapitalFlowswerelargeinaglobalcontexttooGrossCapitalFlowswerealsolargeHowwerecapitalflowsmanagedinthepast?•Acombinationofpoliciesmanagedtheflows:–Exchangeratepolicy(gradualappreciation)–Sterilizationofforexinflows–Reserverequirementsonbanks–Capitalcontrols–ImprovedprudentialandsupervisorypoliciesNominalandRealEffectiveExchangeRatesappreciatedsince2005reform809010011012013014080901001101201301401998Q42000Q42002Q42004Q42006Q42008Q42010Q42012Q4NominalEffectiveExchangeRateandRealEffectiveExchangeRate(Index,2005=100)NominalEffectiveExchangeRateRealEffectiveExchangeRateSources:InternationalFinancialStatisticsdatabaseSterilization:OfficialReservesincreasedconsiderably0.010.020.030.040.050.060.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012China:OverallBalanceofPaymentsandOfficialReserves(aspercentofGDP)OverallBalance(LHS)OfficialReserves(RHS)Sources:InternationalFinancialStatisticsdatabaseWithconsiderablevariationintheextentofforexinterventionThereserverequirementonbankswasincreasedtomanagetheliquidityimpactofforexinflowsCapitalAccountcontrolswereeasedinpastdecadebutremainrestrictiveChinaremainsrelativelyclosedWerecapitalcontrolseffective?FlowsdonotappearsensitivetointerestratedifferentialFranziskaOhnsorgeandStevenBarnett,IMFMarch,2013ButsensitivetoUSinterestrateFranziskaOhnsorgeandStevenBarnett,IMF2013Whatwillhappentocapitalflowswithliberalization?Whathappenedinothercountries?20+episodesofcapitalaccountliberalization(KaminskyandSchmukler,2003)inAMandEMsince1979.Theincreaseinnetcapitalinflowsfromtheyearbeforetotheyearafterliberalizationdependedon:•Stateofdomesticversusworldbusinesscycle•TimesincefinancialsectorliberalizationGrossinternationalassetsandliabilitiesincreasedonaverageby19-20percentagepointsofGDPoverthefollowingfiveyears.Portfolioinflowsincreasedand..US(1973q4)Japan(1980q4)Spain(1992q4)UK(1979q4)Denmark(1988q4)France(1990q4)Germany(1981q4)Norway(1988q4)Sweden(1989q4)Canada(1975q4)Finland(1989q4)Portugal(1992q4)Spain(1980q4)Argentina(1978q4)Chile(1990q4)Chile(1998q4)Colombia(1998q4)Peru(1991q4)Korea(1996q4)Malaysia(1994q4)Thailand(1998q4)-8-6-4-202468-15-10-505101520NetportfolioinflowsYearssincefullfinancialsectorliberalizationChangeinnetportfolioinvestmentinflows(percentofGDP,betweenoneyearbeforeandafterfullcapitalaccountliberalization)BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013…asdidotherinvestmentflows.US(1973q4)Japan(1980q4)UK(1979q4)Denmark(1988q4)France(1990q4)Germany(1981q4)Italy(1992q4)Norway(1988q4)Sweden(1989q4)Canada(1975q4)Finland(1989q4)Portugal(1992q4)Argentina(1978q4)Chile(1990q4)Chile(1998q4)Colombia(1998q4)Mexico(1991q4)Peru(1991q4)Korea(1996q4)Thailand(1998q4)-8-6-4-2024681012-15-10-505101520NetotherinflowsYearssincefullfinancialsectorliberalizationChangeinnetotherinvestmentinflows(percentofGDP,betweenoneyearbeforeandafterfullcapitalaccountliberalization)BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013CapitalaccountliberalizationwasalmostalwaysfollowedbyincreasesingrossforeignassetsBayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013-10010203040506070UK(1979q4)Italy(1992q4)Chile(1998q4)France(1990q4)Spain(1992q4)Sweden(1989q4)Finland(1989q4)Germany(1981q4)Japan(1980q4)Colombia(1998q4)Venezuela(1989q4)Thailand(1998q4)Peru(1991q4)Canada(1975q4)Norway(1988q4)Venezuela(1996q4)Increaseingrossinternationalassetsduringfiveyearsfollowingcapitalaccountliberalization(PercentofGDP)Sources:IMFIFS.Note:DataforUKonlyavailableforyearaftercapitalaccountliberalization...andoftenalsoincreasesingrossforeignliabilities.-30-20-10010203040506070Finland(1989q4)UK(1979q4)Sweden(1989q4)Chile(1998q4)Italy(1992q4)France(1990q4)Spain(1992q4)Canada(1975q4)Germ