IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren

CurrencyInternationalizationPresenterTaoWuCTPTrainingProgramMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05ContentOutline•Definitionofcurrencyinternationalization•Objectivesandbenefitsofcurrencyinternationalization•Costsofcurrencyinternationalization•Evolutionofaninternationalcurrency•RMBInternationalization2DefinitionofCurrencyInternationalization3MMFDefinitionofInternationalCurrency•Anationalcurrencyisregarded“internationalized”ifitplaystheroleofmoneyoutsidethecountrywhereitisissued.Mediumofexchange;Unitofaccount;Storeofvalue;Methodofpayment.•Foranoperationaldefinition,itmaybeusefultoidentifyqualificationsforaninternationalcurrency.Capitalaccountconvertibility;norestrictionsoncurrencytrading,spotorforward;Littleornorestrictionsonforeigners’accesstodomesticfinancialmarkets;Largevolumeoftradeandfinancialassetsfromtheoriginatingcountry;Theissuerhasthebargainingpowertodenominatetradeinitscurrency;Welldevelopedfinancialmarketwithalargevarietyofrisk-hedginginstruments;breadthandliquidity;Stabilityofvalue:long-runpricestability(lowinflation)andlowexchangevariability.4CapitalAccountConvertibility•Capitalaccountconvertibilitymaybeaprecondition,butitdoesnotautomaticallyleadtocurrencyinternationalization(CI).IMFdefinestheterm“convertible”as“freelyusableforthesettlementsofinternationaltransactions”.Unlessthecurrencyiswidelyusedininternationaltransactions,itdoesnotfunctionasaglobalunitofexchange.Thedegreeofacurrency’sactualusageisthemostcriticalcriterion:Itsshareinthedenominationofinternationaltradeandfinancialassets;Foreignholdingsofthecurrencyasinternationalreserves.Bythisstandard,evenJapaneseyenisyetafullyfledgedinternationalcurrency.5InternationalReserves(%ofTotal)6Source:IMFAnnualReports0102030405060708090USDollarDMFFEuroPoundYenCHFQualificationsforInternationalReserves•SizeofGDPTheU.SdollarisdominantEuroquicklybecamethesecondkeycurrency•StabilityofvalueTheprospectoftheeconomyEurovs.Yen•FinancialdevelopmentMaynotbesocriticalEurovs.Britishpound7FinancialAssetDenomination(MoneyMarket,%ofTotal)8Source:BISQuarterlyReview:variousissues.0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007USdollarEuroPoundsterlingYenAustraliandollarSwedishkronaCanadiandollarSingaporedollarFinancialAssetDenomination•TheUSdollarhaslostitsdominance.•Theeurohasbecomethedominantcurrency.•ThepoundsterlinghaslostitskeycurrencypositiondespiteLondonbeingaglobalfinancialcenter.9TradeDenominationUnitedStatesUnitedKingdomJapanGermanyFranceAustraliaExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImport1980US$96.085.017.029.065.793.07.232.320.337.1Euro..........Yen0.21.00.11.329.42.40.00.00.10.7Home96.085.076.038.029.42.482.543.060.537.1Other3.814.06.931.74.94.610.324.719.125.11992US$92.080.022.022.046.674.57.318.416.523.1Euro..........Yen1.53.00.72.440.117.00.31.70.81.3Home92.080.062.043.040.117.077.055.954,646.7Other6.517.015.332.613.38.515.424.028.128.92000US$29.034.052.470.742.657.268.051.4Euro21.019.06.11.244.632.90.32.3Yen..36.123.5..0.85.2Home46.042.036.123.544.632.928.628.3Other4.05.05.44.612.89.92.312.82003US$90.348.068.324.133.933.646.967.547.9Euro2.09.34.663.055.252.745.31.49.4Yen.38.925....0.93.6Home90.338.92563.055.252.745.327.832.6Other7.73.82.112.910.913.77.82.46.510Source:BankofKorea,Kawai(2008),Kamps(2006),EURCDeterminantsofTradeInvoicing•Tradedgoodsaremorelikelytobeinvoicedbyexporter’scurrenciesExchangerateriskismorecriticalforexporters.•Producercurrencypricingismorelikelyiftradedgoodsaremoredifferentiated.Demanduncertaintyislowerformoredifferentiatedgoods.•Morehomogeneousgoodssuchasoilandotherprimarycommoditiesarelikelytobeinvoicedinaveryfewkeycurrencies.11ObjectivesandBenefitsofCurrencyInternationalization12MMF1.Reducingforeignexchangeraterisks•Domesticagentsengagedinforeigntrademaybeabletoreduceforeignexchangerateriskstotheextentthattheirexportsandimportsareinvoicedintheirowncurrencies.•Domesticborrowers(financialinstitutionsandfirms)couldalsoborrowintheirowncurrencies,therebyavoidingcurrencymismatchintheirbalancesheets.The1997Asianfinancialcrisisdemonstratedthatmacroeconomicshockscouldbeamplifiedbythebalancesheetaggravationinthebankingsector.Yetwiththedevelopmentoffinancialderivativeproducts,suchbenefitsbecomelower.132.Collectingseignioragerevenues•Countrieshavingmajorinternationalcurrenciesalsoreapthebenefitsofcollectingseignioragerevenuesfromforeignholdingsoftheircurrencies.•ChinnandFrankel(2007)findthatthesharesaredeterminedbytheeconomicsizeofthecountry,inflationrate,exchangeratevariability,andthesizeoftherelevantfinancialcenter.•Asfarasemergingeconomiesareconcerned,sincetheyarewellbehindintermsofthesedeterminants,thisbenefitislikelytobeinsignificant.143.Developingdomesticfinancialinstitutions•Domesticfinancialinstitutionsmaygainanedgeovertheirexternalcompetitionsindealingintheirowncurrency.•Onceanumberoffinancialassetsdenominatedintheirowncurrenciesareissuedandfreelyexchangedforforeigncurrencies,moreopport