会计盈余的及时性_股权集中度与公司特征

:20060620:(1981),,,,(1981),,,,2006.5(,100037):,,,,:;;,,,,1.FanWong(2002),LaPorta(1998),,,,,,,2.Ball(2000),,Basu(1997),,,,,BallShivakumar(2004),Bushman(2000),,,,,,321Ball(2000),,:(1),;(2),;(3),,,(coreearnings),,,,,,,DemsetzLehn(1985),,,,,;,,,,,:1:,Hayn(1995),(),,,,,,,,,,,,,:2:ROE,()1.,,Sloan(1996)Bushman(2000)Fairfield(2003),(,2005),2.,,,,3.Basu(1997)Ball(2000)Bushman(2000),:(1)(reverseregression),421,EARNt=a0+a1NEGt+b1RETt+b2NEGtRETt+et(1):EARNtt,,,;RETtt,12(41331);NEGt,RET,1,0;et,,b1(1)R2,b1,b1(2)(1)R2,Ball(2000),,R2,(3)(2)R2RETt=a0+b1EARNt+b2EARNt+et(2)EARNttt-1,(1),(2)R2,,R2,,b1R2(2)R2,,,,EARN_A,,4.(HEFD),5,,(PFIR)5(PFIVE)10(PTEN)()1.:2.:,3.:4.:5.:ROE()11HEFDPFIRPFIVEPTEN5521,1996-2003,,(Bushman,2000)(Green,1999)1R2B1R22EARN_A,R2B1R22ROEMBGROWTHSIZERETSD,(),,()2()(%);20.6714347.99124.0362.0131.01227.385217.453311.07103.3631.01124.03298100:CSRS(1998)A;20021381,:(1)1995331;(2);(3)STPT,;(4)298,23842,CSMARSPSS11.0,EVIEWS3.1()3(EARN_A),,(PFIR),57.13%,53.11%;PFIR,44.31%,46.77%,;,(HEFD)19.62%17.49%,PFIVEPTEN1(EARN_A)(PFIR)13,,,3(LNSIZERETSDMBROEGROWTH),,,,621,3EARN_APFIRPFIVEPTENHEFDLNSIZESTDMBROEGROWTHq1mean0.57130.58140.57180.19620.21150.00150.0224-0.00220.0027median0.53110.57260.57600.14870.20910.00140.01870.00010.0015q2mean0.44310.48380.49450.17490.20940.00150.02420.00040.0024median0.46770.48940.52640.14250.21080.00140.02490.00050.006q3mean0.39070.41000.43990.16240.21090.00140.0225-0.00050.0014median0.40940.40010.43740.12470.21040.00130.01740.00030.0007q4mean0.32970.39350.40410.14660.21110.00130.0508-0.00380.0008median0.35140.39470.41620.11100.21000.00130.01680.00020.0001:2981()(PFIRPFIVEPTENHEFD)44,R2(B1)R22EARN_AR2R22B10.6940.748(Spearman)0.774(Spearman)(p0.01),4,(PFIRPFIVEPTENHEFD),,,5PearsonSpearman,10%,4SpearmanPearsonB1R2R22EARN_APFIRPFIVEPTENHEFDB11.00.645330.701330.69433-0.78633-0.7173-0.6113-0.5473R20.645331.00.6350.74833-0.62333-0.578-0.5793-0.437R220.701330.635331.00.77433-0.5793-0.64133-0.6513-0.343EARN_A0.694330.754330.779331.0-0.76133-0.74633-0.6643-0.5033PFIR-0.78433-0.64933-0.54333-0.735331.00.694330.621330.93933PFIVE-0.73533-0.588-0.6373-0.741330.713331.00.983330.82333PTEN-0.6473-0.5853-0.6453-0.638330.589330.899331.00.75433HEFD-0.6093-0.661-0.608-0.50230.849330.691330.391331.0:1.2982.3p0.05,33p0.01()(),OLS:721CES=+1EARN_A+2LNSIZE+3RETSD+4MB+5ROE+6GROWTH+(3)CES,(PFIR)(PFIVE)(PTEN)5(HEFD)1.355EARN_ARETSDLNSIZEROEGROWTHAdjustedR2PFIR-0.01333(-3.38)-1.1633(-2.18)2.053(1.92)0.15(0.13)1.423(1.94)0.069PFIVE-0.0433(-2.46)-0.9233(-2.32)0.26(0.23)-0.62(-1.56)1.413(1.94)0.054PTEN-0.03833(-2.55)0.66(1.54)0.3283(1.87)-0.413(-1.91)1.72333(3.14)0.049HEFD-0.036333(-3.97)-1.55333(-3.12)1.9133-2.38-0.8833(-2.47)1.253(1.92)0.076:1.2982.VIF23.30.1,330.05,3330.01()5,(EARN_A)(PFIR,PFIVE,PTEN,HEFD),-0.01-0.04-0.038-0.036,1%5%,t(VIF)2,,3,(LNSIZE)10%,()(RETSD)5RETSD,()2.ROEROE,Hayn(1995),,:,,ROE,ROEROE,172ROE126ROE,(3)6ROEEARN_ARETSDLNSIZEROEGROWTHAdjustedR2PFIR-0.23333(-5.27)-2.083(-1.95)2.35333(4.99)0.30(1.14)1.313(1.91)0.217PFIVE-0.15333(-4.09)-1.33333(-4.35)1.2633(2.55)-0.23(-0.56)1.7933(2.44)0.174PTEN-0.12333(-3.87)0.7833(2.39)1.5933(2.46)-1.02(-0.11)2.033(1.88)0.142HEFD-0.14333(-6.01)-2.31333(-5.17)2.91333(5.58)-1.21(-1.66)1.313(1.89)0.22:1.2982.30.1,330.05,3330.01()8216ROE,(EARN_A)-0.23,5-0.01,R2,50.069,60.217,,,,(),,,,OLS,(SIZE)(RETSD)(MB)(GROWTH)(ROE)(DA)(PPE%):CES=+1EARN_A+2LNSIZE+3RETSD+4MB+5ROE+6GROWTH+(4)EARN_A=+1CES+2LNSIZE+3RETSD+4MB+5GROWTH+6ROE+7PPE%+8DA+(5)(5),OLS(3),,,,,(),(3)(1)01,DemsetzLehn(1985),,logistic,log[CES/(1-CES)](unboundeddistribution)(2),,,(),,,,,,,,,,;921(ROE),ROEROE,,,,,,,,,,,,:,.2005.[J].(4).BALLR,etal.2000.Theeffectofinternationalinstitutionalfactorsonpropertiesofaccountingearnings[J].JournalofAccountingandEco2nomic,29(1):1-51.BALLR,SHIVAKUMAR.2004.EarningsqualityinUKprivatefirms:comparativelossrecognitiontimeliness[J].JournalofAccountingandEconomic,39:83-128.BASUS.1997.Theconservatismprincipleandtheasymmetrictimelinessofearnings[J].JournalofAccountingandEconomic,24:3-37.BUSHMANR,etal.2000.Thesensitivityofcorporategovernancesystemstothetimelinessofaccountingearnings[R].Workingpaper,Uni2versityofChicago.DEMSETZH,LEHNK.1985.Thestructureofcorporateownerships:causesandconsequences[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,93:1155-1177.FAIRFIELD,etal.2003.Accruedearningsandgrowth:implicationsforfutureprofitabilityinpriorearningsandsecurityreturns[J].Journalofaccountingresearch,32,290-303.FANJ,WONGT.2002.CorporateownershipstructureandtheinformativenessofaccountingearningsinEastAsia[J].JournalofAccount2ingandEconomics,33(3):401-425.HAYNC.1995.TheInformationContentofLosses[J].JournalofAccountingandEconomics,20:123-153.GREENW.1997.EconometricAnalysis[M].NewYork:Macmillan.LAPORTAR,etal.1998.Lawandfinance[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy106:1113-1155.SLOANR.1996.Dostockpricesfullyreflectinformationinaccrualsandcashflowsaboutfutureearnings?[J].TheAccountingReview,71(3):289-315b.TheTimelinessofAccountingEarnings,OwnershipConcentrationandFirmsCharacteristicsWANGLiangOfeiPANNing(BeijingTechnologyandBusines